Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 44,200]

2 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

I just think it’s completely asinine to have Maryland right there

Strong overall SOS with wins over Ohio St and Illinois at home and neutral against Miami is driving their resume.   I have them ahead of IU also 

[IUHoosierJoe 937]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Strong overall SOS with wins over Ohio St and Illinois at home and neutral against Miami is driving their resume.   I have them ahead of IU also 

I’ve got Indiana in as a 12 seed (#47) and Maryland well out (#62).

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,181]

I'm not sure if there is a women's bracketology spot, but ESPNs bracketologist has us as a 1 seed right now. 

[Uspshoosier 44,200]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Indiana
 

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Maryland

[IUHoosierJoe 937]

18 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Indiana
 

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Maryland

You may notice the NET rankings have Indiana 32 and Maryland 52.  Mine are also computer generated but I put more weight on the result-based side than the NET does.  I actually put equal weight on result-based and predictive, so mine are nearly identical to Sagarin’s old version in which he used pure points and elo chess.  The committee used to rely on that old version of Sagarin’s rankings very heavily.

[Uspshoosier 44,200]

19 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

You may notice the NET rankings have Indiana 32 and Maryland 52.  Mine are also computer generated but I put more weight on the result-based side than the NET does.  I actually put equal weight on result-based and predictive, so mine are nearly identical to Sagarin’s old version in which he used pure points and elo chess.  The committee used to rely on that old version of Sagarin’s rankings very heavily.

A teams overall NET number is used as a sorting tool.  The numbers within the team sheet are what matter the most.    Teams with NETs in the 30s have been left out because once committee dug into the team sheet they found their resume wasn’t good.    Committee relied on RPI the most before they switched to  NET.    During my mock selection I attended during RPI days Sagarin was just another tool members could use but it wasn’t a set criteria like the RPI was 

[IUHoosierJoe 937]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

A teams overall NET number is used as a sorting tool.  The numbers within the team sheet are what matter the most.    Teams with NETs in the 30s have been left out because once committee dug into the team sheet they found their resume wasn’t good.    Committee relied on RPI the most before they switched to  NET.    During my mock selection I attended during RPI days Sagarin was just another tool members could use but it wasn’t a set criteria like the RPI was 

I realize that.  There are no “set criteria.”  They have criteria until they don’t.  For instance, they look at “total body of work” until they want to take a team like Rutgers last year and ignore their bad losses.  They have the NET, but it does not line up with the seeding because it weighs the predictive side too much.  You don’t even need to dig into the sheet much, just weigh the result-based metric more than the NET does.  With the RPI, there was no predictive side at all, so it wasn’t a set criteria either. They’re never going to put anything out there that gives away the whole field, because they want to leave themselves the flexibility to pick who they want.  But Sagarin’s old ratings, before he changed his formula, was a really good predictor of the field and fairly good on seedlings, outside of, again, your teams like Rutgers last year getting in.

[RaceToTheTop 23,561]

On 1/17/2023 at 12:02 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Strong overall SOS with wins over Ohio St and Illinois at home and neutral against Miami is driving their resume.   I have them ahead of IU also 

My WAR rankings have Maryland barely ahead of IU as well.  Maryland with a WAR of +0.48 and ranked 49th, IU at +0.13 and 53rd.

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

Lunardi bumped us up to a 9, Bracket Matrix has us averaged out at 9.40, https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/indiana-hoosiers/bracketology has us at 80% chance right now

 

Curious where we would be with a win tonight

[Uspshoosier 44,200]

11 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

Lunardi bumped us up to a 9, Bracket Matrix has us averaged out at 9.40, https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/indiana-hoosiers/bracketology has us at 80% chance right now

 

Curious where we would be with a win tonight

That would depend on what others around IU does as well.   I got them in the low 8 to 9 range.   Getting another top NET 25 road win would be worth a seed line for me or at least they would move in the right direction on the seed list 

[Uspshoosier 44,200]

IU jumped to 23 in the NET 

[Uspshoosier 44,200]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU jumped to 23 in the NET 

Illinois and IU basically just switched spots in the NET 

[southsidehoosier 4,794]

21 hours ago, IU_FanClub said:

Lunardi bumped us up to a 9, Bracket Matrix has us averaged out at 9.40, https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/indiana-hoosiers/bracketology has us at 80% chance right now

 

Curious where we would be with a win tonight

Yeah have to believe we’re no worse than an 8. OSU still showing ahead of us on bracket matrix 

[HoosierHoopster 6,024]

Think it's worth noting that we've played 6 road conference games -- only Nebraska has played more.

We're 2-4 on the road. We'll climb up the standings, question is just how much.

[hoosierdogg 3,090]

15 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Think it's worth noting that we've played 6 road conference games -- only Nebraska has played more.

We're 2-4 on the road. We'll climb up the standings, question is just how much.

Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin were home games, while Rutgers, Iowa, Penn State and Illinois were road games, so 2-1 in home games, 1-3 in road games. 

[southsidehoosier 4,794]

Mike Decoury might be worse than Lunardi

[LIHoosier 24,996]

Mike Decoury might be worse than Lunardi

The difference is I believe Mike knows he's not the best, money's money. Morrie actually thinks he's good!?!

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[Uspshoosier 44,200]

33 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

The difference is I believe Mike knows he's not the best, money's money. Morrie actually thinks he's good!?!

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Mike is still relatively new at bracketology.   He has only been doing it for a couple years.   Fox had the Schwab(guy from espn game show) doing it their first year back covering the sport and he was awful.   I’m guessing they asked Mike to do it after that.   I’ve interacted with him on Twitter and at some high schools games and have talked about him getting into it.    With that said 0 chance should of been out of his projections 

[Scotty R 1,897]

2 hours ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Think it's worth noting that we've played 6 road conference games -- only Nebraska has played more.

We're 2-4 on the road. We'll climb up the standings, question is just how much.

I think you are looking overall road record and not conference record

[HoosierHoopster 6,024]

17 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

I think you are looking overall road record and not conference record

Yes I don't know why I typed conference, of course we're 3-4 in conference, that said we've still played 6 away games and in conf 3 of our 4 losses were away.

Now we have MSU, @ Minn, and OSU coming, real shot at 3-0