Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop 23,558]

Not a ton of games for teams that I think a lot of people have on the bubble tonight.  Two I see are SMU at Temple -- lack of big number of good wins means SMU needs to rack up victories, and at Temple is one they could definitely lose, and Illinois at Rutgers.  Rutgers win really makes people take notice/

 

[JSHoosier 19,558]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

Not a ton of games for teams that I think a lot of people have on the bubble tonight.  Two I see are SMU at Temple -- lack of big number of good wins means SMU needs to rack up victories, and at Temple is one they could definitely lose, and Illinois at Rutgers.  Rutgers win really makes people take notice/

 

Rutgers already won @Wisconsin, beating Illinois would just be another gut punch.

[RaceToTheTop 23,558]

5 minutes ago, JSHoosier said:

Rutgers already won @Wisconsin, beating Illinois would just be another gut punch.

Even with their last three wins, they aren't in many people's brackets.  If you think IU's non-conference schedule was weak, you have to check out theirs.  Ranked by Pom as 357 out of 358 teams.....and they still managed to lose 4 games.  And the schedule at the end is TOUGH....Pom projecting a 2-4 finish.

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

14 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Not a ton of games for teams that I think a lot of people have on the bubble tonight.  Two I see are SMU at Temple -- lack of big number of good wins means SMU needs to rack up victories, and at Temple is one they could definitely lose, and Illinois at Rutgers.  Rutgers win really makes people take notice/

 

Miss St 

[Hoosierfan1901 5,795]

2 hours ago, JSHoosier said:

Rutgers already won @Wisconsin, beating Illinois would just be another gut punch.

And it’s a bad punch...

[NashvilleHoosier 3,634]

2 hours ago, JSHoosier said:

Rutgers already won @Wisconsin, beating Illinois would just be another gut punch.

And MSU and OSU before that. They appear to be on the exact opposite trajectory as us. One of the reasons I think we only get one more win, Maryland at home.

[lillurk 3,666]

4 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

Even with their last three wins, they aren't in many people's brackets.  If you think IU's non-conference schedule was weak, you have to check out theirs.  Ranked by Pom as 357 out of 358 teams.....and they still managed to lose 4 games.  And the schedule at the end is TOUGH....Pom projecting a 2-4 finish.

Appreciate this re: Rutgers. Two things to remember embedded here:

1. Committee doesn’t use conference record as a criteria, and

2. Last ten aren’t weighted anymore.

So while Rutgers has had a crazy good run, if they indeed drop 4 of six, including @IU, they may not surpass an IU team that goes say 3-2 down the stretch.

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

I really hope our team doesn't give up here. As bad as it seems and as hard as we take these losses, almost every bracket still has us in and not even last four in. If we can just get 3 wins here down the stretch we've got a shot. We have OSU on 1 days rest this Monday we gotta attack them

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

This Saturday before the Kentucky game on CBS the committee will give their top 16 seeds.   This will give bracketologist a little sneak preview on how the committee is going to seed teams this year.   Providence and Wisconsin will be interesting to see where they land.    Results based both their resumes are solid but their predictive metrics are lower.   I’m very interested to see where these 2 are seeded 

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

St Johns with a big jump after that  road win.  78.   3 spots from Q2 territory.   Never a bad thing if a non Conference opponent decides to go on a little run late in the year 

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

Lunardi's latest "Scary Sheet" as I like to call it has moved us back up above the Last 4 Byes due to UNC's debacle last night. Like I was saying earlier this thing ain't over but we have to battle. I just hope the team realizes that.

[RaceToTheTop 23,558]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

St Johns with a big jump after that  road win.  78.   3 spots from Q2 territory.   Never a bad thing if a non Conference opponent decides to go on a little run late in the year 

What's been really eye opening with some teams this year is how some teams that are ranked this late in the year still can find themselves in danger with a late season funk.  Murray State is ranked and has lost only 2 games......but they aren't a lock if they lose their conference tournament.  Outside of Belmont and maybe Morehead State, any loss they have is really bad.  And they've come close to having one of those a few times already.  Lose a game before the conference tournament and then one in the conference tournament......I don't think they get in with 4 losses.  

Davidson is really good....but I've been seeing bracketologists have them at around an 11 seed.  They're not safe without an auto bid.

[RaceToTheTop 23,558]

And ******* Memphis is playing themselves into the tournament right now.

[RaceToTheTop 23,558]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

This Saturday before the Kentucky game on CBS the committee will give their top 16 seeds.   This will give bracketologist a little sneak preview on how the committee is going to seed teams this year.   Providence and Wisconsin will be interesting to see where they land.    Results based both their resumes are solid but their predictive metrics are lower.   I’m very interested to see where these 2 are seeded 

I'm interested to see if they have Houston on the list.  Bracketville has them 17.  Delphi has them at 20.  The matrix has them at 16.  Might be telling to how they look at SMU and Memphis.

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

Games tonight that could have an effect on IU (who we should want to win in parentheses)

Michigan at Iowa (Iowa)

San Francisco at St Mary's (St Mary's)

Creighton at Depaul (Depaul)

Oregon at Arizona State (ASU)

Unlikely that all 4 of those games go "our way" but the two in my opinion that we should really want to lose are Michigan and San Fran. Michigan beat us and could get hot and end up taking a spot. San Fran would get a really quality win tonight if they win but a loss takes away another opportunity for a good win for them.

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

Haven't done a ton of research on this stuff but I think it would also be very helpful to us if North Texas and Murray State won their conference tournaments. Those are both potential bid stealer leagues because those two teams have a case to make it at large.

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

It seems as if the cushion we built getting to 16-5 has broken our fall for us a bit here but it is starting to get very thin and wins need to start happening

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

5 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

Haven't done a ton of research on this stuff but I think it would also be very helpful to us if North Texas and Murray State won their conference tournaments. Those are both potential bid stealer leagues because those two teams have a case to make it at large.

Murray St does but North Texas has no shot at an at-large 

[IU_FanClub 1,643]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

Murray St does but North Texas has no shot at an at-large 

lol that's what I get for listening to my friend that went there before he transferred to IU. He told me they had won a bunch of games I didn't realize they were 18-4 and 2 of their wins were against non D1 teams. Bracket Matrix has them as a 12 seed that must just be projecting them as an AQ

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

6 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

lol that's what I get for listening to my friend that went there before he transferred to IU. He told me they had won a bunch of games I didn't realize they were 18-4 and 2 of their wins were against non D1 teams. Bracket Matrix has them as a 12 seed that must just be projecting them as an AQ

Yeah I wouldn’t mind them getting in because they are good but they don’t have a win against the projected field and 14 of their 16 wins are against top 100 or higher teams.   Best win is @wichita St.   it’s real hard for teams like that to get in unless they have only 1 or 2 losses going into their conference tourney.    Murray St has a wins @ Memphis who is now projected in some fields and 3 top 40 wins overall.