Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

12 hours ago, LIHoosier said:

The Butler/G'Town game w/out Ewing had me thinking. Is the commitee going to factor in the results of 'COVID Coaches' like they would if a significant player misses time to injury?

They will take it in consideration but in the interview I saw with him this year the committee chair said at the end of the day  a loss is still a loss 

[Hovadipo 52,979]

Bored on a Friday afternoon...this is where the Athletic has us currently. It came out today, so might be including last night? Doesn't say in the article.

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

Where things stand on a Friday 
After 16 games 

12-4(3-3)

SOS-119  non-con-337

KP-24

SOR-54

NET-32

 

Q1- (1-2)

W-26    L- @22, @20

Q2- (2-2)

W- 61, 70(N)    L-@86, @96

Q3-(2-0)

W-100, 160

 

No losses outside the top 100 and all top 100 losses on the road.   
 

You always go into a new year hoping your team exceeds expectations and is well above what was projected.  That’s not the case for this new coach and players.  Having said that they still have everything in front of them to do something that none of the players have experienced.  
 

Can this years team do what lasts years team and Romeos team couldn’t do?   Take care of Q1 and Q2 home games.  The Purdue games and Illinois and Sparty game won’t decide whether this team makes the tourney.   It’s the home games against Penn St, Maryland and Michigan that become critical.  Monday is huge because B1G teams that are trying to make the tourney don’t get many chances playing road games against teams in the 200’s.  

5 of IU’s road games are against NET top 26 teams.   That’s tough sledding for any team especially a team that doesn’t know how to win on the road. Our buddy Ken Pom actually projects IU to win 4 road games moving forward.   I would guess 3-7 on the road.  
IU as of today looks like anywhere from 8-12 seed with the possibility like in years past to fall completely out of the field.   A lot to be decided over the next couple weeks.   Looking forward to see how this team responds 

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

Blind resume time 

Team A

14-2

Net-18

KP-27

SOR-2

SOS-7 (non con sos)-59

Q1-(5-1)

Q2-(4-1)

 

Team B 

15-2

Net-6

KP-2

SOR-5

SOS-37 (non con sos)-140

Q1-(5-1)

Q2-(2-1)

[HoosierAloha 29,897]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Blind resume time 

Team A

14-2

Net-18

KP-27

SOR-2

SOS-7 (non con sos)-59

Q1-(5-1)

Q2-(4-1)

 

Team B 

15-2

Net-6

KP-2

SOR-5

SOS-37 (non con sos)-140

Q1-(5-1)

Q2-(2-1)

With the information provided, give me Wiscy (team A) over Baylor (team B). Yuck! Although, I'm sure it's probably the difference between who is higher on the same seed line or a one seed difference.

[NashvilleHoosier 3,636]

Looks like we've lost a Q2 win w/ Minny dropping to 76. Only one spot below so they could jump back up, but I suspect by end of season we'll need to plan on this being a Q3 win. A bad loss tonight would give us a significantly different looking resume on Tuesday morning that it looked 2 days previous. Though as USPS so kindly reminds me, we have plenty of opportunity ahead of us. 

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

9 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

With the information provided, give me Wiscy (team A) over Baylor (team B). Yuck! Although, I'm sure it's probably the difference between who is higher on the same seed line or a one seed difference.

Bracket Matrix has Baylor as a 1 and Wisky as the first 4 seed.   Wisky has a better resume then most bracketologist and fan bases think they have right now. 
 

A Wisky win this year would of been a huge resume win for IU.   It would be viewed as one of the best road wins of the year.     

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

9 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Looks like we've lost a Q2 win w/ Minny dropping to 76. Only one spot below so they could jump back up, but I suspect by end of season we'll need to plan on this being a Q3 win. A bad loss tonight would give us a significantly different looking resume on Tuesday morning that it looked 2 days previous. Though as USPS so kindly reminds me, we have plenty of opportunity ahead of us. 

10 Q1 and Q2 opportunities as of today 

[HoosierAloha 29,897]

33 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Bracket Matrix has Baylor as a 1 and Wisky as the first 4 seed.   Wisky has a better resume then most bracketologist and fan bases think they have right now. 
 

A Wisky win this year would of been a huge resume win for IU.   It would be viewed as one of the best road wins of the year.     

That makes it feel even worse. Could we negotiate a 1/4 or 1/2 win for that game due to the large lead we once held?!

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

B1G 10 road games for IU 

  NET

Purdue-9

Wisky-18

Iowa-19

Sparty-23

Ohio St-25

Northwestern-72

Minny-76

Penn St-88

Maryland-108

Nebraska-204

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

North Carolina ACC road game schedule 

Duke-12

Virginia Tech-39

Wake-49

Notre Dame-74

Clemson-78

Miami-84

Louisville-111

NC State-124

Georgia Tech-156

Boston College-159

 

 

 

 

 

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

Oklahoma road schedule 

Baylor-6

Kansas-8

Texas-14

Texas Tech-17

Iowa St-20

West Virginia-44

Oklahoma St-50

TCU-53

Kanas St-75

That’s a ridiculously hard conference schedule      Every road game in the Big 12 is a Q1 opportunity 

 

 

 

[RaceToTheTop 23,785]

IU NET at 34 after the Nebraska win.

non-conference teams NET of note:

Syracuse 103  Quad 2

Notre Dame 74  Quad 2

Marshall 239 (ugh)  Quad 4

Louisiana 161 Quad 4.....move up one spot and they will be Quad 3

St. John's 97  Quad 3

 

[NashvilleHoosier 3,636]

10 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

IU NET at 34 after the Nebraska win.

non-conference teams NET of note:

Syracuse 103  Quad 2

Notre Dame 74  Quad 2

Marshall 239 (ugh)  Quad 4

Louisiana 161 Quad 4.....move up one spot and they will be Quad 3

St. John's 97  Quad 3

 

One of the things that's been annoying the past few seasons is how we've put ourselves in a position of hoping other teams help bolster our resume. It would be great if we could just take care of the business we need to take care of. But nonetheless, it's not inconceivable that ND could end up a quad 1 win, and St. John's a quad 2. So here I am again, paying close attention to what other teams are doing the rest of the season, hoping their performance benefits IU's chances come selection sunday. 

[RaceToTheTop 23,785]

35 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

One of the things that's been annoying the past few seasons is how we've put ourselves in a position of hoping other teams help bolster our resume. It would be great if we could just take care of the business we need to take care of. But nonetheless, it's not inconceivable that ND could end up a quad 1 win, and St. John's a quad 2. So here I am again, paying close attention to what other teams are doing the rest of the season, hoping their performance benefits IU's chances come selection sunday. 

Last year I believe IU actually had a pretty decent non-con resume in terms of Quads.  Because of the covid shortened non-conference and IU playing in an early tournament, our non-conference slate featured five out of seven good games -- Providence, Texas, Stanford (all on neutral court), at Florida State, and Butler on a neutral court;  only two gimmees were home games against North Alabama and Tennessee Tech.  We went 5-2 against those, including 3-2 against good teams on either neutral courts or on the road, so it wasn't the non-con that kept us out.  2019-20 in a more normal season we started with 6 Q3 or Q4 (maybe Louisiana Tech was Q2, not sure) but we did have games against Florida State, U Conn, Notre Dame and Arkansas.  Not a great schedule but I think the Florida State win was Quad 1and I think Notre Dame was Quad 2.

I believe that this year they intentionally set up an easier non-conference early because I think they felt that they needed to get all the new guys acclimated with the old but that going forward they were going to look to increase the toughness.  Think that's why we put Kansas on the schedule next year.

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

28 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Last year I believe IU actually had a pretty decent non-con resume in terms of Quads.  Because of the covid shortened non-conference and IU playing in an early tournament, our non-conference slate featured five out of seven good games -- Providence, Texas, Stanford (all on neutral court), at Florida State, and Butler on a neutral court;  only two gimmees were home games against North Alabama and Tennessee Tech.  We went 5-2 against those, including 3-2 against good teams on either neutral courts or on the road, so it wasn't the non-con that kept us out.  2019-20 in a more normal season we started with 6 Q3 or Q4 (maybe Louisiana Tech was Q2, not sure) but we did have games against Florida State, U Conn, Notre Dame and Arkansas.  Not a great schedule but I think the Florida State win was Quad 1and I think Notre Dame was Quad 2.

I believe that this year they intentionally set up an easier non-conference early because I think they felt that they needed to get all the new guys acclimated with the old but that going forward they were going to look to increase the toughness.  Think that's why we put Kansas on the schedule next year.

Last years SOS ended up 4th (non con 74th)

19-20 season  64th SOS, 66th non con

18-19 season.  64th, non con- 191. 
 

LA tech was 87th that year so Q3. 
UConn, ND were Q2 

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

 

[lillurk 3,689]

18 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

 

This is why I prefer a system that more straightforwardly answers the question “how good is this team?” to one that asks, “how good are the teams they’ve beaten?” Believe it or not but the predictive models that strive to answer the first question, whether Sagarin, Vegas, KenPom, Torvik, Evan Miya do a pretty good job telling you who’s good, and the NET…is a convoluted version of those that’s worse.

If who you beat matters, use something like Wins Above Bubble or whatever

[Uspshoosier 44,314]

15 minutes ago, lillurk said:

This is why I prefer a system that more straightforwardly answers the question “how good is this team?” to one that asks, “how good are the teams they’ve beaten?” Believe it or not but the predictive models that strive to answer the first question, whether Sagarin, Vegas, KenPom, Torvik, Evan Miya do a pretty good job telling you who’s good, and the NET…is a convoluted version of those that’s worse.

If who you beat matters, use something like Wins Above Bubble or whatever

That’s why selection isn’t just straight NET numbers.  No metric is perfect. This was just a real time example of an interesting fact.  By the end of the year the numbers will work themselves out and Kansas St will either be a good win or not.   Ken Pom thinks it’s a good win he has Kansas St 57th.   While not a set criteria some committee members will use wins against the projected field when comparing teams. 
Ken Pom, Sagarin,  KPI, SOR, and  BPI are the other metrics that are on each team sheet 

[Uspshoosier 44,314]