Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

2 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

Win ten B1G games and we'll be in the NCAA tournament. The quality wins will be a foregone conclusion if we did that.

Not necessarily in my opinion.  There could be a scenario where IU wins 10 B1G games and doesn’t have a win over a ncaa tournament team.  If that happened they might not get in.  If they only had 10 wins one of those wins would have to be Purdue, Wisky or Illinois or they would need a couple in the B1G tourney to feel safe.      They have 17 games left 7Q1 and 7Q2 and 3 Q3 games left.   Got to win the Q3 games and then steal some Q1 games.  
Need to get further into the season to really pin down number of games needed.  Here’s hoping they go on a run 

[Stuhoo 85,347]

19 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Not necessarily in my opinion.  There could be a scenario where IU wins 10 B1G games and doesn’t have a win over a ncaa tournament team.  If that happened they might not get in.  If they only had 10 wins one of those wins would have to be Purdue, Wisky or Illinois or they would need a couple in the B1G tourney to feel safe.      They have 17 games left 7Q1 and 7Q2 and 3 Q3 games left.   Got to win the Q3 games and then steal some Q1 games.  
Need to get further into the season to really pin down number of games needed.  Here’s hoping they go on a run 

I guess my point is; for us to win eight more B1G games it'd be very likely we'd have a few really good wins in that mix. For us to do so and only beat the 'easiest' Minnesotas, Penn States, and Ruters would be like drawing an inside straight -- it seems like a Kenpom possibility but winning according to Hoyle is not how it usually happens in the real world.

[RaceToTheTop 28,301]

6 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

I guess my point is; for us to win eight more B1G games it'd be very likely we'd have a few really good wins in that mix. For us to do so and only beat the 'easiest' Minnesotas, Penn States, and Ruters would be like drawing an inside straight -- it seems like a Kenpom possibility but winning according to Hoyle is not how it usually happens in the real world.

For whatever the hell it's worth, my WAR projection (where teams typically +1.0 or over make the tournament) says that IU would need 19 regular season wins to be a tournament team.  So that would be 9 more wins, or an 11-9 conference record.

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

So know that IU isn’t leading the B1G you won’t see them in any bracketology projections.   They were showing up in them because they were used as the auto bid since they were on top of the standings.    I have 15-20 teams in front of them for them to even get to First 4 Out 

[Stuhoo 85,347]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

So know that IU isn’t leading the B1G you won’t see them in any bracketology projections.   They were showing up in them because they were used as the auto bid since they were on top of the standings.    I have 15-20 teams in front of them for them to even get to First 4 Out 

Safe to assume that many/most/all of those 15-20 teams have significantly fewer opportunities to improve their status should IU right the ship?

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,031]

1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

Safe to assume that many/most/all of those 15-20 teams have significantly fewer opportunities to improve their status should IU right the ship?

We are lucky to not have any bad NET losses... But we need big wins and will need to win 10, 11 or 12 B1G games. Our OOC didn't help us any by not getting a win over one of UConn, Auburn, Kansas. But not losing to the rest was helpful in a way considering everyone else seems to have lost to a mid major and to lower NET teams. But right now our best NET win is still Michigan who dropped to 84 after last night I believe.

[Stuhoo 85,347]

13 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

We are lucky to not have any bad NET losses... But we need big wins and will need to win 10, 11 or 12 B1G games. Our OOC didn't help us any by not getting a win over one of UConn, Auburn, Kansas. But not losing to the rest was helpful in a way considering everyone else seems to have lost to a mid major and to lower NET teams. But right now our best NET win is still Michigan who dropped to 84 after last night I believe.

All true. So let's say we would need to 9-8 over our last 17 B1G games, for a total of 11-9 in conference. And we still have:

• 0-3 Rutgers away
• 0-3 Iowa in Bloomington
• Home and away against Penn State
• Home and away against Minnesota
• A game at Maryland
• Home games against Nebraska and Northwestern
• And four other home games against top-tier teams

In other word, even if you discount upsets, we have a ton of opportunities. None of this matters if we don't right the ship, but tons of opportunities if we do so.

[Home Jersey 12,144]

3 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

All true. So let's say we would need to 9-8 over our last 17 B1G games, for a total of 11-9 in conference. And we still have:

• 0-3 Rutgers away
• 0-3 Iowa in Bloomington
• Home and away against Penn State
• Home and away against Minnesota
• A game at Maryland
• Home games against Nebraska and Northwestern

In other word, even if you discount upsets, we have a ton of opportunities. Not if we don't right the ship, but tons if we do so.

The Rutgers game scares me. Hate to give them credit but the student section at Jersey Mike's definitely impacted the game last year.

This team of their's is not very good compared to last year, but they still look like the kind of group that will give us trouble from what I've seen. Bigs who dominate at rebounding/inside D (football) and speedy guards. Derek Simpson is gonna get us into a TON of foul trouble with this little mid range step through/up and under move he likes to use. Can an injured XJ keep up? Not counting on it.

Maybe there will be a rosier picture after the OSU game, but I have to say, they look a lot better than us right now from what I've seen. Whatever the over is for Battle's points, people should hammer lol.... I am willing to fall on my sword and manufacture a point shaving scandal at Rutgers before the weekend is up so they can only play walk ons  

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

29 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Safe to assume that many/most/all of those 15-20 teams have significantly fewer opportunities to improve their status should IU right the ship?

A few but not many.   Most are power 5 teams in the same boat.  A lot of Big 12 teams which will have more opportunities than IU.   Still way too early to gage anything really.  I probably shouldn’t have posted anything lol.     Too many scenarios that could play out.   IU could win 8 more and still not make it or IU could sweep Purdue, sweep Wisconsin, win at Illinois and best Sparty at home and finish 8-12 in the league and would probably sneak in that way (that’s not going to happen).    I will have a better picture of what IU needs to do in February. 

[NashvilleHoosier 3,811]

43 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

All true. So let's say we would need to 9-8 over our last 17 B1G games, for a total of 11-9 in conference. And we still have:

• 0-3 Rutgers away
• 0-3 Iowa in Bloomington
• Home and away against Penn State
• Home and away against Minnesota
• A game at Maryland
• Home games against Nebraska and Northwestern
• And four other home games against top-tier teams

In other word, even if you discount upsets, we have a ton of opportunities. None of this matters if we don't right the ship, but tons of opportunities if we do so.

The opportunities are certainly there. I can’t shake the thought that we had to have that Kansas game. I just don’t see this team being capable of building a resume in conference (as you say, right the ship). Wednesday’s game, though only one, only strengthened that thought. I’ve not yet been able to see a team that will gel and get hot instead of a team that just isn’t very good but has the ability to get up for some big home games, which all teams can do. 

[Hornsby 3,083]

The opportunities are certainly there. I can’t shake the thought that we had to have that Kansas game. I just don’t see this team being capable of building a resume in conference (as you say, right the ship). Wednesday’s game, though only one, only strengthened that thought. I’ve not yet been able to see a team that will gel and get hot instead of a team that just isn’t very good but has the ability to get up for some big home games, which all teams can do. 

Minnesota just won at Michigan. That is going to be no easy game in minneapolis.


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[NashvilleHoosier 3,811]

8 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

Minnesota just won at Michigan. That is going to be no easy game in minneapolis.


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We don’t make our home games easy. I don’t care who we play on the road, the only certain thing is that it is going to be difficult for this team.

[Hovadipo 59,288]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

So know that IU isn’t leading the B1G you won’t see them in any bracketology projections.   They were showing up in them because they were used as the auto bid since they were on top of the standings.    I have 15-20 teams in front of them for them to even get to First 4 Out 

How you feeling about our Sycamores assuming they don't win Arch Madness? Is there a path with a few conference losses for an at-large?

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

1 minute ago, Hovadipo said:

How you feeling about our Sycamores assuming they don't win Arch Madness? Is there a path with a few conference losses for an at-large?

Possibly going 16-2 and the 2 losses were to Drake and Southern Illinois.  Probably need to get to the finals and I think they would have a shot.    They can’t drop a game at home (maybe to Drake) and feel good.    I hope they do get in because they are going to be a problem for someone 

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Possibly going 16-2 and the 2 losses were to Drake and Southern Illinois.  Probably need to get to the finals and I think they would have a shot.    They can’t drop a game at home (maybe to Drake) and feel good.    I hope they do get in because they are going to be a problem for someone 

I think valley went to 20 games so 18-2 possibly 17-3

[WayneFleekHoosier 49,807]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

So know that IU isn’t leading the B1G you won’t see them in any bracketology projections.   They were showing up in them because they were used as the auto bid since they were on top of the standings.    I have 15-20 teams in front of them for them to even get to First 4 Out 

lol. Thanks Woody. Heck of a roster he built this year and even better job on the floor. What a disappointment.  
 

I’ll admit, I expected Gallo and X to be better too, and even Mgbako to a degree.  But even I knew we needed a Antonio Reeves, Dalton Knecht, Cam Spencer type.   Ugh. 

Edited January 5, 2024 by WayneFleekHoosier

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

When I say AP poll is meaningless in bracketology I mean a team like Texas.   20th in the AP but wouldn’t be projected in the tourney as of today.   0 Q1 or Q2 wins. Best win is LSU neutral(131).  0 top 100 wins 

[Uspshoosier 50,185]

IUs best win of the season.  Nice quality resume building win.   Got to keep stacking wins 

[WayneFleekHoosier 49,807]

IUs best win of the season.  Nice quality resume building win.   Got to keep stacking wins 

2 wins next week would really go a long way but AT Rutgers, we gonna get homered big time. 2 teams that are going to fight around the rim. I get to watch home vs Minnesota.


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[RaceToTheTop 28,301]

22 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IUs best win of the season.  Nice quality resume building win.   Got to keep stacking wins 

Quad 2, correct?  I think Ohio State was at 36 coming in and will drop some.  Hope to see them move up to 30 later.

Still think it's more likely that Michigan will end up being a quad one than Ohio State will since Michigan was on the road, but this one was a win against a tourney team.