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Uspshoosier

Bracketology and Team Resumes

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22 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Purdud also draws a 16 seed that presses constantly. Too much to ask, but still, FDU is 100% the right style to compete as a 16 with Purdoooo.

They are due for that kind of karma after almost everything possible has broken their way all year. They should have been the first 1 to lose to a 16 anyway back in 1996 when they beat Western Carolina by 2 with a lot of help from the refs. 

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12 minutes ago, tkbbn said:

Hopefully purdoodoo sets a big ten record to be the 1st big ten #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. May not be a tournament record but it is purdoodoo and something else for them to brag about.

I think it might have been in 1996 that Purdue as a 1 seed came the closest 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. Can't remember who they beat but they won by 1

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I know I've talked WAR to death, but I tweaked a couple of things this year and the top ranked WAR team that missed the tournament was North Texas (45) -- which, for what it's worth, was where Pom had North Texas ranked and NET had them at 38.  Only two teams in WAR's top fifty didn't make the tournament (Oklahoma State was the other at 46).  I know that Pom and NET measure different things, but they POM had 7 teams in the top 50 not in the tournament and NET had 5.

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4 hours ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

I'll be surprised if it isn't Arizona-Alabama in the Elite 8. We will see. 

Yeah, haven’t gotten too deep, and I’m high on both teams, but that region looked much softer than some others.

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26 minutes ago, iubb said:

 

 

 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

I won’t pick this optimistically with IU but if you look at any of the projections, or just eyeball the region, a couple things stand out:

1. The difference between being a 4 and a 5 seed is about ~10% win probability in the round of 64

2. Even as about the 30th best team by the predictive metrics, IU is still the likeliest of the teams in its pod (Kent State, Miami, Drake) to get to the second weekend. That of course jumps if Miami’s injury issue takes out or eliminates their best interior player.

3. the other obvious nice thing about being a high seed…there’s a better chance someone else knocks off the favorite before you get them. E.g. it’s not likely but either Iowa or Auburn is capable of beating Houston.

One at a time, guys

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