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Hoosierfan2017

Senior Member
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Everything posted by Hoosierfan2017

  1. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The number of confirmed cases is pretty meaningless, imo. 25-50% of people are asymptomatic. There are tens of thousands of unconfirmed cases in the state, and millions in the country. 80% of ventilators and 44% of ICUs are available in Indiana. The number of beds, ventilators, and ICUs in use has been decreasing over the past couple weeks.
  2. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The last I saw, 1.8% of deaths in NY were in people under 65 without underlying conditions. There are always outliers with any virus, but if you're young and healthy you should be ok.
  3. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Because they tend to be healthier, younger people? Look at what happened on the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Almost a thousand cases and they have 1 death (a 41 year old man). Few people even required hospitalization.
  4. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The article you linked mentions one hospital specifically, and it does not say that they have been overcapacity. "We now have about 530 patients in intensive care in the country: our hospital capacity is twice as high at 1,100. Stockholm now averages about 220 critical care patients per day and its hospitals, far from being overwhelmed, have capacity for another 70. Stockholm also reports that it has several hundred inpatient care beds unoccupied and that people shouldn’t hesitate to seek hospital care if they feel sick. A new field ward has been set up in Stockholm for intensive and inpatient care and some predicted it would start getting patients two weeks ago. It hasn’t received any patients yet." https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off
  5. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    London and Stockholm have similar population densities. 13,000/sq mile in Stockholm and 14,600/sq mile in London. But I've been saying all along that population density is an important factor and that it's why we shouldn't have one blanket approach in the US.
  6. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I fail to see how they are not a success. 'Flattening the curve' doesn't decrease the number of deaths or infections, it spreads them out over a longer period of time. Sweden's approach has not caused any excess death due to a lack of hospital space. And they did it without intentionally nuking their economy. You're focused on death rate, but the death rate isn't going to tell us anything now, just weeks into a pandemic that's expected to last for the next 18 months. You can't point to their death rate right now and say "see, they're not doing well." The herd immunity approach that Sweden went with will lead to a higher initial death rate, yes. That's by design. Let's look at death rates 6 months from now. What we can look at right now is the fact that their hospitals have never been overwhelmed during the pandemic, despite all the 'experts' saying they would be. If lockdowns are not necessary to prevent overwhelmed hospitals, as Sweden shows, why are we still doing them?
  7. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Sweden currently has the highest death rate among Scandinavian countries. Sweden's approach by design will feature short-term spikes to get to long-term immunity. Now look at them compared to other European countries. They're doing better than Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, and the U.K., despite those countries being shutdown for weeks and weeks. We were told that unless we close the entire country down, our hospitals will be completely overrun and our doctors will be choosing who lives and who dies. Yet, Sweden never closed down and that has not happened. Their hospitals are under capacity. Their ICUs are not overcapacity. And their capital could reach herd immunity in weeks.
  8. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    At some point people will have to grapple with the fact that Sweden never locked down and their hospitals maintained the capacity to treat every coronavirus patient in their country. No overwhelmed hospitals. Enough ICU capacity. And no economic suicide. https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/23/sweden-shatters-lock-down-model-as-curves-stay-flat/?fbclid=IwAR1NDUZGyUEyATpipYtqtXLWPh9vZHng3zeLM9iE3s7ZDj-Jun8N7Opdnt8
  9. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Time to go stock up on meat tomorrow.
  10. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Louisiana has the highest poverty rate in the country. It also has the 2nd highest percentage of African American residents. African Americans are being disproportionately affected by coronavirus. Do you know which states round out the rest of the top 10? New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, DC, Michigan, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Not exactly places known for great spring weather. Let's go back to the post you took issue with. "Sunlight kills the virus quickly and it's hard to transmit outdoors anyway. People thought the spring breakers would cause hospital surges too, and that never happened. Going to the beach is low risk, and there is plenty of space." "Sunlight kills the virus quickly": https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html "It's hard to transmit outdoors anyway.": "In a study of 110 case-patients from 11 clusters in Japan, all clusters were associated with closed environments, including fitness centers, shared eating environments, and hospitals, the odds for transmission from a primary case-patient were 18.7 times higher than in open-air environments." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0495_article "Hospital surges in Florida never happened." "Going to the beach is low risk." : see above from cdc report about transmitting in open air environments. "There is plenty of space." Easy to remain 6' away from people, as shown by this video. Anything else you need my help with this afternoon?
  11. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Florida is 21st in cases/million people and 22nd in deaths/million people despite doing everything 'wrong' according to the 'experts.' Texas is 38th in cases/million people and 41st in cases/million people. But go ahead and continue with the snarky comments. It's all you've been good for.
  12. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Sunlight kills the virus quickly and it's hard to transmit outdoors anyway. People thought the spring breakers would cause hospital surges too, and that never happened. Going to the beach is low risk, and there is plenty of space.
  13. Hoosierfan2017

    College Bball Thread

    I'm interested in how that shakes out for other teams as well. Pre-season rankings can be a crap shoot, but both starting and ending the season in the top 10 in six of the past ten seasons is pretty dang good.
  14. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Wow. They're counting all home deaths as Covid19 deaths even without testing? There's a lot of smoke, and they aren't exactly quelling the conspiracy theory fires with policies like this. I just don't know what their play is.
  15. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Maybe we are, but doesn't this pose the risk of going too far in the other direction? We're currently focusing on testing people with suspected cases, and only 15-20% of those tests come back positive. If they have that much trouble figuring out who has it while they're alive, why believe they'd be much better at predicting suspected cases when they're dead? The symptoms are very similar to other illnesses.
  16. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    What is the rationale for this? Counting people who die with coronavirus as dying from coronavirus is one thing. But counting people who haven't even been tested as coronavirus deaths? That seems... Suspicious. The cynic in me says it's to inflate the numbers. Do they do this with any other virus?
  17. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Thousands of healthcare workers are getting laid off... During a pandemic. What's going to happen to eye doctors, dentists, family practitioners, etc., when they aren't allowed to open? Folks are concerned about overwhelming the 'healthcare system,' but our current policies are going to deal massive blows to it.
  18. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Good point. The 17 million is most definitely an underestimate, given what you mentioned and also the difficulty people are having getting through to the unemployment departments.
  19. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Is your family still getting a paycheck right now? 17 million people have lost their jobs in the past three weeks. That's more than 'some' people. If you're still collecting a check right now then sure, staying home is great. It's basically a paid vacation. Millions of people aren't so lucky.
  20. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I'm not exactly sure what you're talking about here. NYC is on a shelter in place with non-essential businesses closed. So is Indiana. People are still packed into the subway. You say I'm arguing that the experts don't know what they're talking about. Yes, that's largely what I'm saying. The 'experts' also told us that coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person. The 'experts' also told us not to wear masks because masks don't work. Now they've changed their stance. Why should we blindly believe what the 'experts' tell us when they've already gotten so many things wrong? The countries that have restricted movement the most - Spain, Italy, and France - have also been hit the hardest. You assume that shelter in place in the only way to slow the spread, but I've given you 7 states without shelter in place orders that are doing fine. Their hospitals are empty, not overrun. They have few deaths. Places like Sweden are avoiding shutdowns right now. They may have a larger short-term hit, but the idea is that it will allow them to have a smaller long-term hit. Do the models predict how many people die if unemployment hits 30%? 17 million in the past three weeks and some want to act like these shutdowns are sustainable for months to come.
  21. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    That's my point though. A one-size fits all shelter-in-place order doesn't make much sense given how different parts of the US are from other parts. My parents' town has a thousand people in it. Why have it under the same kind of order as New York City? They're still packing subway cars in New York while businesses are all shut down in small towns.
  22. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The models all took social distancing into account, so that doesn't explain why they were all so off. Their model was predicting 62,000 new cases per day at their peak without social distancing.
  23. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I can give you my account number of you're looking for a place to deposit some of your Trump bucks, lol. In all seriousness though that's great that you and your wife are doing that. I hope that more people decide to do something similar. Imo, our current strategy is increasing the chances of a second spike because we're not going to have any herd immunity. Healthy/young people aren't being exposed to the virus because we're all staying away from each other. I get that we don't want young people spreading it to at-risk groups, but if we can figure out a way to keep those groups safe while it spreads amongst the rest of us, that could probably go a long ways toward avoiding a second spike.
  24. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Don't know. The 7 states without shut down orders, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, have a combined 80 deaths. If full-on, shelter in place shutdowns are necessary to prevent mass death, shouldn't those states be seeing way more deaths than they currently are?
  25. Hoosierfan2017

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I don't know if you're a doomer or not, but you weren't who I had in mind when I said it fwiw. The deaths are a lagging number since it can take a while to die from the virus. Hospitalizations and ICU patients have been decreasing recently in New York. Now is the time to start talking about opening up the economy, imo, because we need to figure out how we're going to do it before we actually do. Start the conversation now so that way in a few weeks, maybe May 1st, we can start opening things up. It won't be a 0-100 type of thing, and we will still have to do social distancing and avoid mass gatherings. I'm not sure the economy can wait much longer than May 1st. It's barely holding on now.
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