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BottomLine

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Posts posted by BottomLine

  1. Posted · Edited by BottomLine
    Typo

    So you flip a coin five times and it comes up heads each time.  When you flip again, do you call tails because it is overdo, or do you stick with the hot streak?

    When you play a team twice and get crunched twice, do you go with the evidence of the past, or do you stubbornly shout to the workd, "It's our time now!" 

    When you have a super secret good luck charm named Anthony Leal on your side, how can you lose?  The fates are on our side!

    Seriously, Indiana right now is better than all those computer programs have us rated.  How good?  Let's see.

    Hoosiers         71

    Corny Guys     70

  2. Posted

    I may be in second place but I'm not going to repeat as champion anyway.  That contest is basically over.  I'm too late with too little this year.

    The smart bet here is to take Penn State.  They have beaten us twice this year, and the scores were not that close.  Still the Hoosiers are on a four game win streak and are starting to finally put the pieces together.  Maybe.

    Penn State shoots lights out from 3 - we lose

    IU makes tons of stupid turnovers - we lose

    We get in serious foul trouble - we lose

    If Galloway doesn't play - we probable lose

    We score more points than Penn State - we win

    Notice there is only one way to win.

     

    Hoosiers          75

    Nitty Lions       74

    JF87 and HoosierHoopster reacted to this

  3. Posted

    Flopping around like a fish on dry land on this one.  You never can tell what will happen on senior day (or underclassmen who are looking to go elsewhere day).  Wish I could still believe in the value of the home court.  Sticking with the hot team, I think.  Who knows?  Maybe I'll change my mind a couple of more times.  Just know IU has to play like there hair is on fire.

    Hoosiers          71

    Sparty               70

  4. Posted

    Stick a fork in the Hoosiers.  We are about done.  Right?  Well, maybe not.  It depends.

    You can point a lot of fingers at what went wrong at IU this year but it basically boils down to three things.  1) we didn't pick up that extra shooting guard last summer and Newton was unable to play this year.  That left us two bodies down to everyone else.  2).Our bench failed us big time.  We have gone from mass substitutions at the beginning of the year to trying to find someone, ANYONE, that can contribute consistently off the bench.  And, 3) with Johnson out twice this year with injuries, we have tried to take on most teams with 4 players against 5.  This isn't a knock on Cupps.  He plays defense and doesn't turn the ball over.  However he is mostly worthless on offense.  He doesn't look to shoot and doesn't produce many assists.  There isn't a lot on the bench after him.  If you want to blame all of this on the coach. so be it, but I'd dare anyone to figure out how to get more out of what we have.  We are a one dimensional team.

    This is the time of the year when games should be the most predictable.  We have a lot of evidence to go on.  Or do we?  I'm not a big Xavier Johnson fan but when he plays well he can alter the outcome of a game on both ends of the court.  Notice I said can and not will.  Everyone, Vegas included, is judging the Hoosiers on our season performance.  Most of the year we have been without Johnson.  but, he will be there tonight and that can alter the results.

    On paper Minnesota wins this game be about 7 at home and that is the logical pick.  In every pick I make I try to be logical and consistent but tonight I'm going out on a limb and playing a hunch.  Can Johnson have a 7 point impact on this game.  That is basically taking away a 3 on defense and adding a couple of 2's to the IU offense.  Not much but maybe enough.

    I'm going with the upset.  If I'm wrong I drop another 50 points behind in the standings.  If I'm right I pick up 50 on a lot of people.  My fingers are crossed that my gut reaction is right.

    Hoosiers         75

    Gophers           74

     

    HoosierHoopster reacted to this

  7. Posted

    When did IU basketball become IU football?  About a dozen games ago.

    The home court advantage is dead and Wisconsin plays defense and shoots threes.  There is talent on the team but the pieces don't fit.  Not a lot we can do about it at this point in the season.  About the only hope we have left is that Xavier Johnson (remember him?) comes back as someone other than himself.  Not counting on it.

    Hoosiers         71

    Badgers          73

  12. Posted

    It is so hard not to over rate the result of the last game.  That was the stinkeroo of all stinkeroos.  Okay, forget that.  Instead I'll consider that we have lost 6 of our last 9 games.  Even worse we have lost 4 of our last 5.  In short we aren't a very good team.  Despite our winning record we have been outscored 1634 to 1616.   Even the loyalist have given up hope for the post season, and we aren't thinking NCAA here we are thinking NIT.  We have talent but the pieces don't fit together very well.  I seriously doubt that IU will be favored in ANY game for the remainder of the season.  We are really that bad.

    We beat Ohio State in Bloomington.  Can we repeat in Columbus?  Not likely.

     

    Hoosiers        70

    Buckeyes        77

  13. Posted

    Had to get my mind off yesterday's big failure against Penn State so I decided to do a bit of Prediction League statistical digging.

    Discovered that collectively we are a lot smarter than we are individually.  Added up our new "average" results and discovered that the average has racked up 2084 points after 22 games, after dropping the two lowest.  That would be good enough for 10th place in the current standings.  There is an old saying that the majority knows best.  Certainly looks that way, especially since the average each game can't win any given week.

    Know that old statement that past results don't necessarily guarantee future returns.  One year ago, after 22 games, rcs29 was in first place with 2113 points and I was in the catbird seat with 2110.  Despite improving 11 points on my 2022-23 pace, I'm currently stuck in 6th place, in a tie with RICO, and rapidly losing contact with the leader, Hper50.  Oh, how was Hper50 doing at this time last year?  He was in 33rd place with a score of 1856, an improvement of 33 places and a gain of 366 points this year. Incredible!

     

  14. Posted

    Why are Indiana basketball teams always made up of the walking wounded?  Hard to make a prediction here when you don't know exactly who will be playing.  Still there are two factors that should sway this game.  First it is a home game and secondly Penn State is pretty pathetic, especially on the road.  Could this be a breakout game for Sparks?  Just throwing the dice and hoping everything comes up positive.

    Indiana          78

    PSU                71

    JF87 reacted to this

  15. Posted

    Last basket made wins this one.  It could be that close.  Iowa can put up a cloud of 3's so it is imperative that IU guard that line because we are going to get outscored from outside, and we need to hold that margin down.  Hope the home crowd is large and loud.  We need that 6th man going for us.  Would probably help a lot if we get Ware back and Johnson doesn't play like an idiot.  After facing the Big10s murderers row we have our backs to the wall.  We NEED a win!

    Going with the home team here but the confidence isn't high.

    Indiana          80

    Iowa              79

  16. Posted

    High hopes for the NIT are starting to fade.  This IU team is evidence that putting a team together is more than recruiting players with lots of stars after their names.  Team building is about attitude and confidence, and IU is lacking in both.  These guys don't look like they are having any fun.  They look like they are pressing.  They don't act like they like each other.  And, dare I say, we are starting to see indications of hero ball instead of team ball.  l still like Woody as a coach but sometimes teams get away from you and you just can't seem to find the key to getting everything back on track.

    Still time to put things back together but, sadly, not on the road and not at Illinois.

    Hoosiers         71

    Illinois              84

    PS  As a resident of Illinois I hate the University of Illinois.  My kids graduated from Iowa and Indiana.

  17. Posted

    Ware plays "soft"

    Reneau dribbles with his head down and holds the ball low = turnovers

    Mbako starting to come around but Woody doesn't trust him enough to keep him on the floor

    Galloway still hustles his butt off but can't carry the team

    Cupps doesn't even look at the basket, can't drive the basket, and needs to start hunting shots.  Other teams don't even guard him.

    Johnson is still driving into crowds and begging for foul calls.  Can't control his emotions.

    What you see before you is a team that isn't a team and has holes everywhere and can we expect to go to Wisconsin and win?  Not likely.

    Hate playing Wisconsin more than Purdue.

    Indiana          67

    Wisconsin     77

  21. Posted

    This is another tough game to pick.  I think IU will have a lot of these tossup games this year.  

    We have a better record than Rutgers but that doesn't mean that we have played that much better.  Way too many close games against teams we should have outclassed.  Thankfully we have ended up on top in all of those.

    Playing on the road in the Big10 is a nightmare.  Ask Ohio State about that.  Without taking match-ups into consideration I think the road team has about a 25-30% chance of winning.  That looks bad for the Hoosiers and good for Rutgers.  We usually play at Rutgers like we are having a root canal.  Their defense can make most games a brawl.  How tough are we?

    The X factor here is Xavier Johnson, no pun intended.  He was the  difference against Ohio State, where he played under control, unlike Nebraska.  How is he going to respond Tuesday after a short turn around between games and a trip to New Jersey?  He has the ability to make this team better than we have been to this point.  How much better?  That is the real question.  Especially if he starts playing out of control hero ball.

    On paper I make this one about a 3 point Rutgers victory with the scoring in the low 70's.  However, now we have the Xavier factor.  I rated the Ohio State game a toss-up and IU won by 6.  Johnson?  I'm going to fudge my prediction here by 6 points and make this a 3 point IU win.  This is getting way too complicated.

    Hoosiers          74

    Rutgers            71 

    ALASKA HOOSIER reacted to this

  22. Posted

    Wow!!!!  Way to go Mamasa for an incredible 145.  You are my hero.  You now have well earned bragging rights.  And, as to LlHoosier, you were robbed by Xavier's exhaustion at the end.  He played a ton of minutes for someone that has been out for weeks.  Great job - both of you. 

    mamasa reacted to this

  25. Posted

    7 hours ago, Dave from Dayton said:

    I thoroughly understand and could 'predict' a lot more accurately than my Prediction Thread shows.  But, I don't really care about who or why someone is more 'objective' than I post in this game.  I never put $$ on sports gambling.  I grew up within walking distance of a parimutuel horse racing venue and loved it.  But never have I put more than $2 on a horse.  So professional gambling, in my opinion, is for other people to get their dopamine hits.  Not me.  Play the lottery...you have got to be kidding me.  Why do I want more money?  I have enough.  

    I also do not hang a hat on any player's career night impacting the next games.  So the premise in the above post is not necessarily correct about that.

    I could see, and posted early on this site, that IU needed guards and shooters much before this season started.  The 'fix' has been missed.  So IU is dependent on the inside game.  This gives opponents an opportunity to shut down IU's offense more easily.  

    Back to the Prediction Thread.  It gives me some pleasure to be involved in discussing the pros and cons of IU's team's performance in advance and during the games.  Not so much after the fact.  I do not get any satisfaction from posting that IU should lose to OSU tonight.  Hope springs eternal.  Never, ever, should any team come to SSAH and win over IU.  Not ever.

    What really pisses me off is that the coaching staff is missing the boat.  The X's and O's are not putting IU in position to take advantage of matchups and other opportunities during the game.  

    B.L.  Glad that you are 'professionally' able to predict.  Good on you.  But, I do not care about that.

    I care only about this team, the coaches and them doing their best.  They are not even close.  That is the issue.  Notice, I am not saying that they have to win each and every game.  Just that they need to grow up and do better...all..of...the...time.  

    Sure, I wear my heart on my sleeve.  I like that placement much better than any 'satisfaction' others get picking an OSU tonight.  How dare you? ! /s  Pick against MY HOOSIERS.  ...  As they say in New Joisie...Get outa heya!!  /s

     

    I do really like this site.  And I appreciate the hell out of those that give time and effort to make it better, interesting and moderated.  Love the discussions.  Some need to be shorter and to the point.  Not run on and on.  (looks in mirror.  Oh.)

    I'm sorry if you took any of my comments personally.  I intended to be of a more general nature.  I was reacting to your comment on the Hoosiers being inconsistent and unpredictable and I and others have not found that to be the case.  It all depends on how you look at the situation and many on here are always wearing rose colored glasses.  The reality is that we are not a very good team at present and it shows in our record.  We are outclassed by good teams and struggle against "lesser" teams.

    We are almost completely in agreement as to the reasons why.

    After winning this league last year I made some comments about my background and some people took exception.  I spent 18 years as a basketball coach.  I think I have a pretty good understanding of team dynamics and chemistry as well as the Xs and Os.  I'm not going to apologize for that.  It is what it is.  I also was employed for 21 years as a public thoroughbred handicapper for a Chicago area newspaper.  I have a lot of experience in separating emotion from the process of making predictions.  Again I'll not apologize for that either.  It is just a fact and I've always tried to pass on what I've learned to others.

    I have been to a casino twice in my life.  I never play the lottery.  I've never wagered on sports events.  I do not gamble on anything except the things that I understand, which is horses.  I have not made a wager on a horse race in years.  It just doesn't interest me any more and it is really hard work to do it well.  I've moved on. However, as long as someone keeps score and maintains maintains standings, I'm going to do the best that I can, and use whatever talents and insight that I have.

    Sorry that I've run on so much.  I also spent 43 years as a U.S History teacher.  Being verbose seems to go along with the gig.  I can't help myself.

    Good luck over the rest of the season.  I hope the guys finally give us something to make us happy.

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