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Vegas odds for IU to win NCAA

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www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/

 

Just looked up the odds in Vegas for an IU victory in the NCAA tournament and they are offering 45-1.  Seems to me that is a bit long.  Play this tourney 45 times and IU will get on a roll and win at least once.  I'm not saying that we are gong to win this year but for $10 you get a chance for a $450 return and I'll take those odds.  Considering that there are no overwhelming favorites this year the line makers have established Michigan State as the favorite to win it all.  IU is the 23rd team listed, which I think is ridiculous.  Wonder what the odds were a couple of months ago when we got no respect?

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Anyone know what the odds were for us in 2002?

Probably under 1%. We were a 5 seed. The most dominant teams every year sit around 20%. Usually the 4th #1 is sitting in the 5-8% range.

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Probably under 1%. We were a 5 seed. The most dominant teams every year sit around 20%. Usually the 4th #1 is sitting in the 5-8% range.

 

Yep.  20% is typically the highest.  This year is supposed to be even "crazier" than most. The favorite is predicted at about 11%.  Good read on fivethirtyeight about what the lack of a favorite means for the rest of the field (other than the obvious, better % chance a lower seeded team wins): "Because the NCAA Tournament is a zero-sum game, the rest of the field gains from this lack of top-heaviness. Although pretty much every team ranked No. 4 to No. 25 by Pomeroy benefits some (teams ranked below that don’t really have much of a chance either way), the biggest beneficiaries are positioned in the back half of the top 10 and into the teens:"

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-mens-college-basketball-teams-just-arent-very-good-this-year/

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For the non gamblers out there...how does % translate to odds...like 4/1..or 16 to 1....?

...usually...

5 to 1 is 20% (1/5) in ratio odds or +500 in American odds. 4 to 1 is 25%. 16 to 1 is 25% of 25% or 6.25%. We are currently at 33 to 1 or 3%.

 

It's what MSU and Kansas are currently at right now. I expect they'll remain around there until it starts. There is always a lot of flux after Sunday because potential match-ups matter a lot and betting right now is pretty minimal so they aren't self-adjusting yet.

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Anyone know what the odds were for us in 2002?

Not sure what Vegas Odds were, but per Ken Pom, and using Fivethirtyeights model, we had about a 7% chance of winning.  (6th best team in KenPom, which roughly translates to 7% probability to win tournament via Fivethirtyeight).  I'm kinda borrowing from both methods, so take that with a grain of salt.  

 

For reference, this year KenPom currently ranks us 9th, which is about a 6% chance of winning. However, I believe every team that has ever won the title had an adjusted offense and defense in the top 40.  Our current adjusted defense is 67.  Granted, that encompasses the full season.  I'd like to see what it's been during conference play only. 

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Oh my goodness.  Statistics fan wet dream right here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KUMU7x_8WBxYuROD4fuOsHWp1WIk-YIyX6ZwK5F7inw/edit#gid=1386191792

 

"Of interest: here is a google sheet with all pre-tourney kenpom data, including filters depending on how far each team went. You can use this to look at basic kenpom stats/ranks before tourney play started. You can make interesting pivot tables such as: double digit seeds that made it to S16 or E8, then analyze the characteristics of those teams, or champs, or Final Four... etc.

Best practices is to use the 02-14 tab and create a pivot table from there. "

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Not sure what Vegas Odds were, but per Ken Pom, and using Fivethirtyeights model, we had about a 7% chance of winning. (6th best team in KenPom, which roughly translates to 7% probability to win tournament via Fivethirtyeight). I'm kinda borrowing from both methods, so take that with a grain of salt.

For reference, this year KenPom currently ranks us 9th, which is about a 6% chance of winning. However, I believe every team that has ever won the title had an adjusted offense and defense in the top 40. Our current adjusted defense is 67. Granted, that encompasses the full season. I'd like to see what it's been during conference play only.


Kinda sounds like we are one block shot away from the Elite 8 to me...wink

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