Up by Three Points, Do you Foul or Play it out?

[BtownBanners 147]

Most analysts want the team up by three points to foul.  That Backfires here...

 

Down by three, the player has to make his first free throw, then miss his second to get the put-back and force a THIRD overtime.  Amazing play!

 

Ken Pomeroy of Kenpom.com had an interested article yesterday about fouling when your team is up by 3 points with little time left.  The numbers actually suggest to let the game play out and your win probability will be a little bit higher (although fouling wasn't too bad either.

 

If Indiana is ever in the situation where they are down by 3 and get fouled, hopefully they will start practicing this...

 

So what do you do... Foul or Play it out?

[igsmith 2]

Have to foul. More likely they hit a three than do this.

[Portland Hoosier 8]

I would always foul, take the guesswork and luck out of the situation, control what you can control...  Now sometimes you try to foul and can't like the Mich V Wisky game last weekend, and that's where you get in trouble in my eyes.  You can't try and foul and get an intentional or flagrant so you have to be smart about it.

 

It's kinda like using all your timeouts in an end of game situation to make sure the kids know where they can and can't mess up the situation; there is always going to be an argument for or against it I would just prefer to take control over everything that you are allowed to in tight late situations.

[XLevel 144]

Depends on your team.  With a great defense like ours (well, usually... Illinois, UGH!) you trust your team to lock them up.  If you don't have great defenders, then you foul.

 

Always coach for the team you HAVE.  Not the team you want.

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

I let it play our every time. The numbers agree with me. I just don't want to give up points and let the game come down to a missed free throw and a crazy tip. I'd much rather make them throw up a prayer three. Each team is different, but that would be my staple unless they are ridiculous three point shooters.

[hoosier93 33]

let it play out, would rather take my chances on them scoring while 5 guys guard the 3pt line

[Kilroy 271]

let it play out, would rather take my chances on them scoring while 5 guys guard the 3pt line

 

Well, four guys. You don't want Oladipo anywhere near a three point shooter with his unique history. I kid.

[hoosier93 33]

Agreed!! didnt think about that

[Hoosier_Eric 2]

Let it play out, guard the three point line, hard deny the shooters and dont get handsy and foul when they go up to shoot. If they can make a prayer three pointer to push it to overtime, at least you have the overtime to work with.

[J_Laub20 0]

Depends on the situation and the team your playing. If the teams been killing you with threes all game don't take the chance and foul and trust your bigs to get a defensive rebound.