(2017) SG Al Durham Jr. to IU

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,828]

You're not getting finished products in the Top 30.

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True. Most scouting services say they rank players on projected impact and NBA potential and not on immediate impact. Who knows though, this rationalization allows them an excuse when they misrank a player.

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[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,110]

You have to give the EYBL a lot of credit for the hype it continually puts out for the kids in its program.  Durham is #3 in drawing fouls/game and he's a 75% shooter from the line; his teammate Collin Sexton is #1.

 

[hoosierwhodey 1,256]

Solid vision and handles

[Uspshoosier 44,308]

True. Most scouting services say they rank players on projected impact and NBA potential and not on immediate impact. Who knows though, this rationalization allows them an excuse when they misrank a player.

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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post?id=15784

This would be an interesting take on the subject. Maybe someone with insider could recap

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[WayneFleekHoosier 46,828]

Would love to see it.

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[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post?id=15784

This would be an interesting take on the subject. Maybe someone with insider could recap

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On the heels of the updated ESPN 100, ESPN 60 and ESPN 25 it may be time for a little perspective when it comes to rankings.

There’s a belief out there that rankings are meant to be absolute and final. That couldn’t be more untrue.

Rankings are subjective and an inexact science because they consider multiple variables: current production, projected college impact and long term potential, but more than that they also are a snapshot of those areas at one particular point in time.

All three of those variables change over time, and that’s exactly why rankings constantly evolve. All three classes have experienced major changes in the last six months. Six years from now the list will be totally different. New players will have emerged, others will have plateaued, and we’ll have a larger sample size to assess a player’s rate of improvement.

So why then is ranking high school players even legitimate if everyone acknowledges that so much can and inevitably will change in the coming months and years?

Several reasons, the first is benchmarking.

Every NBA front office executive speaks to the importance of assessing the arc of a player’s development. It’s exactly why the phone rings off the hook this time of year with NBA executives full of questions about current NBA draft hopefuls.

There’s definite value in players with a proven track record of consistently taking their game to new levels. Conversely, players who don’t show consistent improvement pose major red flags when projecting their long-term value. The question isn’t just talent -- that part is usually easy to see -- it’s whether that specific player is going to maximize their talent.

Rankings also help with early identification. Yes, there will inevitably be future stars who emerge in the coming years, but just as many future stars show those exceptional tools at a young age.

The current NBA finals are a perfect example. The Warriors are a team led by a trio of late bloomers, and the Cavs are led by a trio who were all appropriately identified at an early age.

Stephen Curry committed to Davidson in 2006, one year before ESPN began evaluating high school prospects, but his story is now widely known. As a 160-pound high school senior he was generally regarded as a three-star prospect and was passed over by high-major schools. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson were both ESPN 100 prospects in the Class of 2008, ranked 36th and 53rd respectively, before moving on to Washington State and Michigan State.

All three have shown tremendous rates of improvement, not just during their college years, but even since arriving in the NBA. Remember, Green wasn’t a first-round pick, Thompson wasn’t selected to the NBA's Rising Stars Challenge as a rookie, and Curry wasn’t prioritized by Nike as recently as three years ago. High school rankings didn’t miss these guys. Every level of the evaluation process missed them as they evolved into the stars they are today.

Conversely, James was a childhood prodigy, dubbed the King long before he shook David Stern’s hand. He was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a junior and even tried to enter the NBA draft prior to his senior year of high school. Kevin Love was the top ranked player in the inaugural ESPN 100 of 2007 and the Pac-10 Player of the Year in his only season at UCLA while Kyrie Irving was the third-ranked player in the 2010 ESPN 100 (Warriors forward Harrison Barnes was the No. 1 ranked player in that class) before spending just one injury-riddled season at Duke. High school rankings successfully identified these players as the most unique talents in the country at a young age, and to their credit, they’ve continued to live up to those abilities all the way up the line.

High school rankings aren’t supposed to be able to predict the NBA stars of the next 10 years, they’re supposed to be the first step in a cumulative evaluation process that, when interpreted correctly, help us better understand and appreciate the trajectories of various players at numerous different levels. That might be a generational star like LeBron James whose brilliance was recognizable at an early age or a generational star like Steph Curry whose brilliance has grown with each step along the way.

 

[X-Hoosier 529]

Like it or not... recruiting rankings get a lot right.

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[Uspshoosier 44,308]

20 hours ago, MartintheMopMan said:

 

Thanks Martin for posting that.  Very good write up 

[HoosierTrav 7,619]

Solid vision and handles

Although his numbers aren't all that impressive, I love his size, passing ability, and his ability to get into the paint at will. Stroke looks good. Definitely not a project. I have a good feeling he will really blossom in Bloomington. We truly have an elite elite staff when it comes to developing individuals skills and turning weaknesses into strengths. He seems to have a solid foundation of size, skill, and basketball IQ. I'll take kids like this all day. Plus the kid LOVES being a Hoosier. He will be a pleasant surprise, I'm betting.

[mdn82 25,461]

Like it or not... recruiting rankings get a lot right.

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I am not sure what they actually get right though. They watch basketball. They rank players based on their perception of good. Some players are easy, because they are really good or really bad. Even beyond the top tier of players, how can we say they are getting a lot right? Is it if the 68th ranked recruit is outperforming the 73rd recruit? I can't really say I am that impressed by someone going to AAU events and saying any player is elite. Anyone can do that.

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,828]

I am not sure what they actually get right though. They watch basketball. They rank players based on their perception of good. Some players are easy, because they are really good or really bad. Even beyond the top tier of players, how can we say they are getting a lot right? Is it if the 68th ranked recruit is outperforming the 73rd recruit? I can't really say I am that impressed by someone going to AAU events and saying any player is elite. Anyone can do that.

I think that is kind of the point. The AAU scene gathers generally the best of the best from HS basketball. These players then play with and against one another. The sample size is large enough to make assumptions of skill level relative to one other. It allows for a ranking system that otherwise would be even harder to deduce. The fact "anyone can do it" proves its own concept. Late bloomers are really the biggest wrench in the AAU ranking system. Aside from that elite talent is separated from good talent and beyond.

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[WayneFleekHoosier 46,828]

IU........

Sounds like he is visiting.

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[Alford Bailey 12,259]

17 hours ago, mdn82 said:

I am not sure what they actually get right though. They watch basketball. They rank players based on their perception of good. Some players are easy, because they are really good or really bad. Even beyond the top tier of players, how can we say they are getting a lot right? Is it if the 68th ranked recruit is outperforming the 73rd recruit? I can't really say I am that impressed by someone going to AAU events and saying any player is elite. Anyone can do that.

These guys are just like the weatherman. They can give you the sure thing but those in the middle guys, well, there a 50% chance of rain.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,110]

Earlier, Durham received an invite to Chris Paul's summer camp and today invited to Nike's Basketball Academy along with a couple of other IU targets.  His numbers in this summer's AAU circuit haven't been eye popping but there must be more to his game than what we can glean simply from the box score.  Final note - the EYBL Peach Jam Classic runs July 6-8, and I'll try to keep up-to-date with stats but don't look for stats from all of the EYBL players we've targeted including Durham and his teammate Collin Sexton because teams had to qualify (wins/losses in the 4 previous EYBL events) to participate in the Peach Jam and Durham's Southern Stampede team was not one of the qualifying teams.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,110]

Durham's AAU team did not qualify for the Peach Jam but is instead playing in the Peach Invitational and last night defeated Justin Smith's Mac Irvin Fire squad by the score of 78 - 73.  Durham was the leading scorer for Southern Stampede with 24 pts.  Teammate Collin Sexton apparently did not play.  Smith scored 18 for Mac Irvin.

[HoosierAloha 29,897]

Durham's AAU team did not qualify for the Peach Jam but is instead playing in the Peach Invitational and last night defeated Justin Smith's Mac Irvin Fire squad by the score of 78 - 73.  Durham was the leading scorer for Southern Stampede with 24 pts.  Teammate Collin Sexton apparently did not play.  Smith scored 18 for Mac Irvin.

Why?!!!! I need some stats on Sexton!

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[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,110]

2 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Why?!!!! I need some stats on Sexton!

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He couldn't find his lucky socks.     LOL

[HoosierAloha 29,897]

He couldn't find his lucky socks.     LOL

Ha! Hate when that happens (sandals)

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[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,110]

In Durham's second game of the Peach Invitational his Southern Stampede team defeated Team Griffin.  Durham with 12 pts.  Again, Collin Sexton's stat line was -0- so have to assume he's not in attendance.  No other stat details are available.

[Bobman1 2,909]

In Durham's second game of the Peach Invitational his Southern Stampede team defeated Team Griffin.  Durham with 12 pts.  Again, Collin Sexton's stat line was -0- so have to assume he's not in attendance.  No other stat details are available.

If Sexton is in fact not playing, it's great to see Al increasing his production, and even pulling out two W's against solid teams. Let's hope he can keep this production and consistency up even if Sexton returns.

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