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BlueDevil

College Bball Thread

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Spent time looking at the "early top 25's". They have a little more substance now with the draft deadline. Some kids will still come back after going undrafted and some transfers remain. Some takeaways: 

1) The Big Ten is going to be the best conference by far. Michigan State is the consensus #1 team. Maryland and Ohio State will be final four contenders. Purdue and Michigan will be solid. Think Iowa and Minnesota are tournament teams. That seems to be bad news for IU but...

2) I think the rest of college basketball is going to be really really weak. Teams don't seem to be as talented as last year. (Example-Duke is the #2 preseason team in lots of polls..no way they are more talented than last years team. Same with UK-top 4 team) Lot of teams starting from scratch. That is good news for IU. They will play in the #1 conference. I have them as #8 in the Big Ten. That probably gets you an 8-10 seed in the tournament. No, banner six isn't coming in 2020 but making the tournament is a good step. 

3) As I said Michigan State is the clear cut #1. Doesn't mean anything but I don't see who else can take the top spot. Duke, Memphis, and UK will be talented. But I am adamant the one and done stuff doesn't work. Louisville is an intriguing team. Experience, grad transfers, top 10 class. 

I think this is a massive year for Archie Miller. They are relying on player development this year. I can see a scenario where if football really does bad that puts Fred Glass in a bad spot. If IU misses the tournament in this scenario I think the board fires Glass. Not sure what a new AD would do with Archie. I see IU as a 18-13 .500 Big Ten Team. We will see. 

Also unrelated but my Indiana college bold prediction is that the Evansville Aces will make the NCAA tournament this season. The Valley isn't what it used to be and McCarty has a ton of talent here. I think they have two top 150 kids. Think they had four total kids sitting out last year and all four could have started. 

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26 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

Chris Mack went 20-14 last season. Holtmann went 20-15 and 8-12 in the conference last year. Archie went 19-16 and 8-12 in the conference last year. Archie/IU struggled but let's not act like Mack and Holtmann killed it last year either. If Holtmann went 20-15 here last year and 8-12 in conference, after going 25-9 and 15-3 in his first season, the people complaining about Archie would be complaining about how Holtmann can't get it done with his own players. 

We have three guys coming in who fill important needs and, more importantly, want to be Hoosiers. Let's wait and see what happens next year before declaring the program dead in the water. 

They made the tourney so let’s not just look at records. At the end of day Holtmann and Mack are getting the job done

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15 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

 

The "Mack and Holtman are killing us" line looks completely ridiculous when it is put into context of ...

reality.

 

Mack maybe. He did after all make the tourney in year 1. 

Holtmann is 4-0 against Archie and is outrecruiting him in both overall talent and balance. Not to mention not missing the tourney 

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Mack maybe. He did after all make the tourney in year 1. 
Holtmann is 4-0 against Archie and is outrecruiting him in both overall talent and balance. Not to mention not missing the tourney 

This is the best summary. Mack and Holtmann collectively made the tourney 3-0. Collectively 4-1 against Archie. Collectively recruiting VERY well and filling important needs.

For those giving him a hard time, do you believe Archie is doing better or just challenging him for the sake of challenging him?


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8 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

They made the tourney so let’s not just look at records. At the end of day Holtmann and Mack are getting the job done

Are they though? Mack lost in the first round and Holtmann lost in the second round. Making the tournament is certainly better than not, but we were what, one win away from making the tournament? We're only talking about the difference of 1 win, 2 wins at the most. They both had more success than Archie last year, but not to the point where we should be kicking ourselves for hiring Archie instead of one of them. 

As for recruiting, Archie had a top 10 class last year. It hasn't panned out the way we've wanted, but that happens sometimes. For all we know, the same thing will happen with Holtmann/Mack's classes. This year, Archie has a solid class coming in. We've got Mr. Basketball/McDonald's All American TJD, former top 100 recruit Joey Brunk, and Armaan Franklin. By all accounts all three are hard working multi-year players who like each other. With the rumored team chemistry problems from last year, this is huge. The class doesn't look sexy on paper, but I expect people to be pleasantly surprised.

Last year was a disaster, no argument from me there. Despite that, the two guys people are wishing we went after didn't do much better. So, I understand some of the concern, but I don't understand those who are mad we didn't hire Holtmann or Mack.

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Are they though? Mack lost in the first round and Holtmann lost in the second round. Making the tournament is certainly better than not, but we were what, one win away from making the tournament? We're only talking about the difference of 1 win, 2 wins at the most. They both had more success than Archie last year, but not to the point where we should be kicking ourselves for hiring Archie instead of one of them. 
As for recruiting, Archie had a top 10 class last year. It hasn't panned out the way we've wanted, but that happens sometimes. For all we know, the same thing will happen with Holtmann/Mack's classes. This year, Archie has a solid class coming in. We've got Mr. Basketball/McDonald's All American TJD, former top 100 recruit Joey Brunk, and Armaan Franklin. By all accounts all three are hard working multi-year players who like each other. With the rumored team chemistry problems from last year, this is huge. The class doesn't look sexy on paper, but I expect people to be pleasantly surprised.
Last year was a disaster, no argument from me there. Despite that, the two guys people are wishing we went after didn't do much better. So, I understand some of the concern, but I don't understand those who are mad we didn't hire Holtmann or Mack.

See above. You said last year was a disaster. Enough said.

I’m cheering for Archie but I am not going to argue with anyone that says they wish we would have gotten one of the other two guys. Nobody in Columbus or Louisville are saying last year was a disaster but we are in Bloomington. And, when it really mattered and OSU and IU both needed wins it make the tourney, OSU wiped the floor with us to give Holtmann his 4th straight victory over Archie to get his team in to the tournament


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5 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

 

 

The "Mack and Holtman are killing us" line looks completely ridiculous when it is put into context of ...

reality.

 

Some early top 25 polls have Louisville as a top 5 team with one having them at number 2. They wasn't as loaded last season as some think but made it into the tournament. I would say that Mack is getting it done there.

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2 hours ago, MoyeNeeded said:
Some early top 25 polls have Louisville as a top 5 team with one having them at number 2. They wasn't as loaded last season as some think but made it into the tournament. I would say that Mack is getting it done there.


Mack is getting it done, no doubt. But he took over a program that was in a great spot. Pitino was fired for violations, not performance like Crean was. The team that Padgett coached was a preseason top 15 team before Pitino got fired. There was a lot of talent there. He had a good season, although they fell apart after that Duke loss. And he's got an awesome class coming in. But the Louisville situation is not comparable to IU


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11 minutes ago, Free Jurkin! said:


Mack is getting it done, no doubt. But he took over a program that was in a great spot. Pitino was fired for violations, not performance like CREAN was. The team that Padgett coached was a preseason top 15 team before Pitino got fired. There was a lot of talent there. He had a good season, although they fell apart after that Duke loss. And he's got an awesome class coming in. But the Louisville situation is not comparable to IU


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1 hour ago, MoyeNeeded said:

Some early top 25 polls have Louisville as a top 5 team with one having them at number 2. They wasn't as loaded last season as some think but made it into the tournament. I would say that Mack is getting it done there.

 

I'm not at all against giving good coaches their due ... Mack and Holtman are excellent hires. 

However, to say that Mack and Holtman outperformed Archie last year is not really true. For the coming year? As Bill Parcells said "You are what your record says you are."  Just like Archie got dinged for a record that was below expectations last year, I'll judge him for the coming year when I see how many games we win!

Finally, to say that Mack and Holtman are killing us...[emphasis added] is the truly ridiculous part.

Mack and Holtman may do very well next year; that is irrespective of us: Why not say Tony Bennett and Bill Belichick are 'killing us'. When another coach does well, it's rarely tied to us. 

Archie Miller and staff need to assemble and coach up a roster that will win games at a high level; it's that simple and has pretty much nothing to do with how well Mack, Belichick, Holtman, Tony Bennett, John Wooden, or the coach of the local pee-wee baseball team is doing.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

I'm not at all against giving good coaches their due ... Mack and Holtman are excellent hires. 

However, to say that Mack and Holtman outperformed Archie last year is not really true. For the coming year? As Bill Parcells said "You are what your record says you are."  Just like Archie got dinged for a record that was below expectations last year, I'll judge him for the coming year when I see how many games we win!

Finally, to say that Mack and Holtman are killing us...[emphasis added] is the truly ridiculous part.

Mack and Holtman may do very well next year; that is irrespective of us: Why not say Tony Bennett and Bill Belichick are 'killing us'. When another coach does well, it's rarely tied to us. 

Archie Miller and staff need to assemble and coach up a roster that will win games at a high level; it's that simple and has pretty much nothing to do with how well Mack, Belichick, Holtman, Tony Bennett, John Wooden, or the coach of the local pee-wee baseball team is doing.

 

 

They dont affect Archie but they definitely are strong arguments against the “it requires 3 years” argument. 

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1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

They dont affect Archie but they definitely are strong arguments against the “it requires 3 years” argument. 

 

Well neither of them did all that hot in year two, and I haven't seen their (or Archie's) year three result yet.

 

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Just now, Stuhoo said:

 

Well neither of them did all that hot in year two, and I haven't seen their (or Archie's) year three result yet.

 

Mack hasn’t had a year 2?  And is high in a national poll. 

Holtman beat Archie twice and made the tourney. So a better year 2

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1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

Mack hasn’t had a year 2?  And is high in a national poll. 

Holtman beat Archie twice and made the tourney. So a better year 2

 

Meh; Hotman won one more game and snuck in. That's better, but it was better with 15 losses. 

As for Mack, he rolled the dice that a school with a loaded talent pool would not be crushed by the NCAA - smart move so far. The second year after Pitino was fired he lost 14 with that talent pool. Better than our 16 losses? Sure; a little bit.

As for 'high in a (pre-season) poll' - aren't ya gonna give Archie credit for being higher in pre-season polls that Holtman last year?  ;) 

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12 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Meh; Hotman won one more game and snuck in. That's better, but it was better with 15 losses. 

As for Mack, he rolled the dice that a school with a loaded talent pool would not be crushed by the NCAA - smart move so far. The second year after Pitino was fired he lost 14 with that talent pool. Better than our 16 losses? Sure; a little bit.

As for 'high in a (pre-season) poll' - aren't ya gonna give Archie credit for being higher in pre-season polls that Holtman last year?  ;) 

Obviously what happens in season matters more but until the preseason rankings are a decent placeholder. 

Holtmann May have only won 1 more game but he won a game in both the NCAA tourney and the big Ten tourney just last year. Something Archie has yet to do. 

At the end of the day OSU and Louisville had seasons very much in line or surpassing expections. Where as Archie failed to live up to expectations I would say in year 2 for sure and I don’t think an NIT would have been unrealistic in year 1

. It’s time for this fan base to stop being okay and manufacturing excuses for not meeting expectations. 

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8 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Obviously what happens in season matters more but until the preseason rankings are a decent placeholder. 

Holtmann May have only won 1 more game but he won a game in both the NCAA tourney and the big Ten tourney just last year. Something Archie has yet to do. 

At the end of the day OSU and Louisville had seasons very much in line or surpassing expections. Where as Archie failed to live up to expectations I would say in year 2 for sure and I don’t think an NIT would have been unrealistic in year 1

. It’s time for this fan base to stop being okay and manufacturing excuses for not meeting expectations. 

Louisville

Preseason Ranked as high as 16th (https://bigredlouie.com/2018/05/10/nbc-sports-has-louisville-basketball-ranked-16th-in-early-2018-19-top-25/)

But per ESPN Unranked (#39 in the others getting votes)

End of Season UNRanked (#32 in the others getting votes)

Ohio State

Preseason Unranked (no Votes)

End of Season Unranked. (No Votes)

So both teams made the tournament. Neither did well, and could argue neither deserved to be there. Neither Surpassed expectations, I guess you could say they lived up to them.... but by that logic so did IU (expectations were unranked, and end of season was unranked).

 

I truly believe you all can only see this through glasses of exhaustion of fandom for our program... it sucks to lose, it sucks to not be in the tournament, it sucks to miss on a few recruits.. I get it... but to ready write off Archie as worse than Holtmann or Mack is premature... The conversation has been repeated ad-naseum but we were in a much worse position starting off with Archie than either Mack or Holtmann entered into. I don't care if it is year 1, 2, or 3... I am not making excuses for the program being down but I am not putting all that on Archie either.

 

This Year:

Preseason Ranks

Louisville = #5

Ohio State = #24

Indiana = Unranked

So if we end up improving more than them this year does that mean they failed and their coaches are worse than Archie?

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