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Archie and Progress

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That’s your narrative and expectations. That is not what Fred Glass detailed as the expectations that explained the firing of Tom Crean. In my opinion it’s untruthful to what the actual proposed expectations are.
 
All of what you said is true. We’ve been bad for a long time. BUT we pay the coach at a scale to perform better. We, as a fan base support at a top notch level. We recruit at a rate to be better (granted I’m admittedly rarely happy with recruiting results). Fred Glass expected more. There is no reason to say to ourselves, we’ve sucked for a long time, we should be happy with any success. People in any industry don’t succeed at the highest levels with that mindset.
 
I’m realistic. I know IU football will never be top dog. Too many hurdles. Money, history, support, etc,etc,etc. BUT IUBB doesn’t have those hurdles. We are still regarded as a top producing, earning, and storied program by everyone. We pay top recruiting dollars (maybe not enough under the table). We act and say we want to be a top program. That is the expectation.
 
Now, the big question is when? For me it was always expected year 3 or 4 and going forward. Depending on recruiting one n done type talent or building them up. Archie appears to have a slower approach. Next year is a big year. Maybe the results start meeting the stated expectations when he was hired.
 
 
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That’s not my narrative that is what the actual numbers say. People want to point out the numbers each year individually for coaches and I guess they want to ignore what the overall numbers say. Has nothing to do with my expectations. Those numbers are real right in front of you, me or anyone else to look up. I choose to acknowledge them while others choose to ignore them.


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That’s your narrative and expectations. That is not what Fred Glass detailed as the expectations that explained the firing of Tom Crean. In my opinion it’s untruthful to what the actual proposed expectations are.
 
All of what you said is true. We’ve been bad for a long time. BUT we pay the coach at a scale to perform better. We, as a fan base support at a top notch level. We recruit at a rate to be better (granted I’m admittedly rarely happy with recruiting results). Fred Glass expected more. There is no reason to say to ourselves, we’ve sucked for a long time, we should be happy with any success. People in any industry don’t succeed at the highest levels with that mindset.
 
I’m realistic. I know IU football will never be top dog. Too many hurdles. Money, history, support, etc,etc,etc. BUT IUBB doesn’t have those hurdles. We are still regarded as a top producing, earning, and storied program by everyone. We pay top recruiting dollars (maybe not enough under the table). We act and say we want to be a top program. That is the expectation.
 
Now, the big question is when? For me it was always expected year 3 or 4 and going forward. Depending on recruiting one n done type talent or building them up. Archie appears to have a slower approach. Next year is a big year. Maybe the results start meeting the stated expectations when he was hired.
 
 
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Sadly he will fail by being so stubborn with a system that isn’t good. It was great at a mid major level even. For Archie to succeed and reach the level we want him to, he will need to change. He will hold back the program more than anyone. If Lander comes and struggles to get driving lanes because of Archie’s loaded paint offense, you can kiss recruiting of Lander types goodbye. Next year is huge for Archie. Archie MUST do 4 things and has to do all 4.
1. Lose 10 or less games.
2. Play good basketball. Defense, offense, hustle, crisp paying, ball movement, player movement, shooting etc.
3. Be in the Top 25 and the Top 20. People may roll their eyes and say the AP poll is stupid and means nothing to them, but it’s important for the programs image and perception.
4. Finish AT LEAST 2 games above .500 in conference (and that’s a low bar to set). Really he needs to be finishing in the Top 5-6 in the B1G. It’s time to put up or shut up. No more moral victories.


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55 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:


Sadly he will fail by being so stubborn with a system that isn’t good. It was great at a mid major level even. For Archie to succeed and reach the level we want him to, he will need to change. He will hold back the program more than anyone. If Lander comes and struggles to get driving lanes because of Archie’s loaded paint offense, you can kiss recruiting of Lander types goodbye. Next year is huge for Archie. Archie MUST do 4 things and has to do all 4.
1. Lose 10 or less games.
2. Play good basketball. Defense, offense, hustle, crisp paying, ball movement, player movement, shooting etc.
3. Be in the Top 25 and the Top 20. People may roll their eyes and say the AP poll is stupid and means nothing to them, but it’s important for the programs image and perception.
4. Finish AT LEAST 2 games above .500 in conference (and that’s a low bar to set). Really he needs to be finishing in the Top 5-6 in the B1G. It’s time to put up or shut up. No more moral victories.


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What happens if he doesn’t?  

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That’s not my narrative that is what the actual numbers say. People want to point out the numbers each year individually for coaches and I guess they want to ignore what the overall numbers say. Has nothing to do with my expectations. Those numbers are real right in front of you, me or anyone else to look up. I choose to acknowledge them while others choose to ignore them.

 

 

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But it is your narrative. Don’t expect results because we’ve been bad for a long time. We are what we are.

 

My narrative and I’m not ignoring numbers at all, is we stated we want to be top 4 in the BIG and compete nationally on a consistent basis. That is what a Fred Glass said when we he hired him. Archie is 3 years the part of those numbers being bad. He is trending upwards, ever so slightly. I acknowledge that. I like Archie as a personality. I’m rooting for Archie. He isn’t performing to his expectations yet. I’m certain he demands better and so should we as a fan base.

 

At this point, I want next year to be better. At this point I’m rooting for the slow change we all hope is occurring but it needs to happen this year imo. As much of a make or break year as one could have, imo, if Archie is to get Indiana to those Fred Glass expectations.

 

 

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Back to basketball and the explosive discussion....
Here's his record at IU and KenPom ratings year over year.   It is certainly not where any of us want it yet, but to deny the progress and trend in the right direction is intellectually dishonest.  Here you go :
https://twitter.com/cdrummond97/status/1242224608352153602?s=20

Point taken. Still too painstakingly slow sir.


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But it is your narrative. Don’t expect results because we’ve been bad for a long time. We are what we are.
 
My narrative and I’m not ignoring numbers at all, is we stated we want to be top 4 in the BIG and compete nationally on a consistent basis. That is what a Fred Glass said when we he hired him. Archie is 3 years the part of those numbers being bad. He is trending upwards, ever so slightly. I acknowledge that. I like Archie as a personality. I’m rooting for Archie. He isn’t performing to his expectations yet. I’m certain he demands better and so should we as a fan base.
 
At this point, I want next year to be better. At this point I’m rooting for the slow change we all hope is occurring but it needs to happen this year imo. As much of a make or break year as one could have, imo, if Archie is to get Indiana to those Fred Glass expectations.
 
 
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Never said don’t expect results. Just pointing out the overall numbers where the program that both of us are emotionally invested in has been in. I don’t have to like the fact that we are a middle of the pack B1G team but that is where they have been long before Archie took over. His job is to turn that around and like I pointed out if he doesn’t do it then the next coach in line’s job will be to change those numbers. I remember Fred’s expectations early on and I also remember him saying this won’t happen overnight and to give it time. Didn’t he also call it a massive rebuild later on?



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3 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

Say Archie has the team top 4-6 in conference next season then in year 5+ we are consistently in the “competing” in the conference and nationally. I don’t think many people will be upset about the first few years at that point.

It’s pretty simple, you either think Archie can get it done or not. The trend hasn’t been as steep as I’d like it. However, if we win a handful more games next season and have a solid returning core to pair with a strong 2021 class (Kaufman, Aminu, etc.) I’ll feel pretty good about being in stable ground.


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I think I’m where Aloha is here. Not only has the trend been slower than I thought it should be but there are the concerns I outlined before: trend goes in the other direction in conference, stubbornness may not serve Arch well schematically, etc.

But that said things look set up for a perfectly acceptable season next year. Probably not the type of year we hope we’re hitting consistently sometime soon, but the sort of year you can deal with occasionally once you’re at cruising altitude: in the tournament easily, some memorable moments, and some things to hang your hat on (beat rivals, conf/NCAA tourney success, though I don’t like judging on single-year tourney outcomes).

So yes: if this happens it will reframe the amount of time it took. There are enough concerning things that I’m always a bit surprised when anyone’s an all-in, 100% sure True Believer. But it’s there for the taking.

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2 hours ago, colonel06 said:


Point taken. Still too painstakingly slow sir.


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I don't disagree, but I also can't just toss aside the "why" and leave it out of the discussion.  I also can't leave out the number of big/good wins.  I can't leave out the fact that had it not been for mistakes by Durham and DeVonte Green, Indiana wins against Maryland.  Close losses against Illinois, Arkansas, and Wisconsin could have easily been turned around by just another made shot or two.   

Yes....there were some awful games and some showings with zero heart.  100% agree with that.  (also think the kids to blame for that are gone or almost gone.  I need to see how Smith responds next year because he could either break out and be 1st team all Big Ten and shock the world, or he could be a pain in the a$$ and drag the team south)  But I'm looking at the overall health of the program and not simply raw numbers.  And I know, I know....if my aunt had onions, she'd be my uncle and we don't accept moral victories...that's absolutely right.

 It's been said here and I agree and have said myself, next season's a big one.  I don't believe we have one thing to worry about, and I saw ESPN's pre-season "way too early" top 25 poll, and Indiana had discussion.   I completely believe Indiana will win 23-25 games next season, and I also think the recruiting pipeline is very healthy.   I guess it's fair to say I'm not someone who's nervous about whether or not next season will be one we're all happy with.  I see things going in a good direction.

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I don't disagree, but I also can't just toss aside the "why" and leave it out of the discussion.  I also can't leave out the number of big/good wins.  I can't leave out the fact that had it not been for mistakes by Durham and DeVonte Green, Indiana wins against Maryland.  Close losses against Illinois, Arkansas, and Wisconsin could have easily been turned around by just another made shot or two.   
Yes....there were some awful games and some showings with zero heart.  100% agree with that.  (also think the kids to blame for that are gone or almost gone.  I need to see how Smith responds next year because he could either break out and be 1st team all Big Ten and shock the world, or he could be a pain in the a$$ and drag the team south)  But I'm looking at the overall health of the program and not simply raw numbers.  And I know, I know....if my aunt had onions, she'd be my uncle and we don't accept moral victories...that's absolutely right.
 It's been said here and I agree and have said myself, next season's a big one.  I don't believe we have one thing to worry about, and I saw ESPN's pre-season "way too early" top 25 poll, and Indiana had discussion.   I completely believe Indiana will win 23-25 games next season, and I also think the recruiting pipeline is very healthy.   I guess it's fair to say I'm not someone who's nervous about whether or not next season will be one we're all happy with.  I see things going in a good direction.
Per Smith my $ is on him being who he is at this point. Similar to Devonte in regards to seemingly no improvement in bball IQ during his time at IU. Hope like hell I'm wrong but if I were a betting man I'd go with the latter of your 2 scenarios with him. Frustrating as hell because he seems to have all of the physical attributes necessary to be a complete monster.

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Per Smith my $ is on him being who he is at this point. Similar to Devonte in regards to seemingly no improvement in bball IQ during his time at IU. Hope like hell I'm wrong but if I were a betting man I'd go with the latter of your 2 scenarios with him. Frustrating as hell because he seems to have all of the physical attributes necessary to be a complete monster.

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I remember Chris007 bringing up something about two players acting out during practices. Old Friend like to blame Green and Davis, but those stories weren’t about Green and Davis being disruptive. They were about other players. Certain Juniors who are good friends. They are still here. Could have the same problems. Smith is going to start. Durham is going to start. Archie doesn’t have it in him to make big changes. Brunk will probably even start again for whatever reason. But Smith and Durham need to step up. Smith was our second best player last season so that should say where everyone else was at. But those two seniors are going to need to step up or to just be another year of minimal success.


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I've done this the last two years where I look back on the season and the players. I'd say this season was what I expected. Highs and lows. Am I 100% convinced Archie is the guy? No, but I like the progress-although slow. He is killing the in-state recruiting. IF the tournament would have happened, IU probably would have lost either in the first or second round. Here is what I think for the players:

Seniors

Devonte- I feel bad for him. He deserved to play in the tournament.  He had ups and downs for sure. He didn't live up to my preseason All-Big Ten pick but he was a solid player. I bet he gets looks for the NBA and will play overseas. 

De'Ron- Another player I feel awful for. Injuries hurt his career. He too deserved to play in the tournament. He sounds like a great student and has a very bright future. Maybe we will hear him call an IU game one day. 

Juniors

Justin- He improved a lot this year. However, he still needs to be more consistent. I remember hearing about Archie chewing him out sometime in January/February. I hope he has a massive senior year. I still like him at the 4 spot instead of the 3. He has All-Big Ten and NBA 2nd round potential next year if he puts it all together. 

Al- Like Justin he improved. I still think he plays too much at this level. I don't think Al can be your top guard. I hope he improves as a three point shooter. I too remember hearing he was causing issues in the locker room and at practice so I hope he turned things around. 

Joey- Glad to have him as a Hoosier. I don't think he is a starter but he should be in a nice role off the bench to provide depth. I think he is the kind of kid that's going to get better next year. 

Sophomores

Rob- I expect him to have the kind of year next year that many of you expected this year. I keep saying this-Rob was not an elite recruit/athlete. He's actually exceeded my expectations his first two years in Bloomington. I think he and Lander will be one heck of a duo in the backcourt. 

Race- Man what a season for him. If he improves his conditioning and stays healthy he should start!! I see a little bit of Juwan in him. If he can extend his game past the three point line watch out. 

Damezi- Sounds like he is all but gone. Archie really missed on this one. IF he was the player they thought we was, he would've played more these last two years. Wish him luck in whatever happens. 

Freshmen

TJD- Our best player. He reminds me a little of Jared Jeffries. He may be a front runner for B1G POY and our first All-American since Yogi. I think if he has that type of year, he probably is gone after next year. I hope he adds some strength over the off season. Too many times he couldn't finish at the rim. I could see him scoring 18-20 a game.  I could very well see him ending up as one of the all-time great IU players.

Jerome- Jerome is a crucial piece for us. If he can play starter like minutes these next few years, IU is going to be pretty darn good. I love his game. I could see him in the NBA in a few years if things go his way. 

Armaan- Like Jerome, a crucial piece for us. IU needs him to provide good minutes off the bench next year. I could see him being a starter his junior and senior year. If he plays the way he played at Bankers Life, we've got a really good one. 

In-Coming

With Covid-19, I think this pretty much assures Lander is going to be at IU next year. I feel awful that he along with Leal and Galloway couldn't finish their final year. Lander will play big minutes for us. I could see him getting around 9 pts and 3 ast. I do think he is going to help regardless. The good thing is IU doesn't need for their freshmen to play major roles like the last few years. They have experience coming back. 

Line Up-things can change. This is what I think we will see: 

Starters: Lander, Phinisee, Durham, Smith, TJD

Bench: Brunk, Hunter, Franklin, Thompson, Leal

I would like to see this lineup:

Starters: Lander, Phinisee, Hunter, Thompson, TJD-IF all these players are on the roster in 2021-2022 I think this is a National Championship caliber lineup. 

Bench: Smith, Durham, Brunk, Franklin, Leal

 

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14 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:


Next year is huge for Archie. Archie MUST do 4 things and has to do all 4.
1. Lose 10 or less games.
2. Play good basketball. Defense, offense, hustle, crisp paying, ball movement, player movement, shooting etc.
3. Be in the Top 25 and the Top 20. People may roll their eyes and say the AP poll is stupid and means nothing to them, but it’s important for the programs image and perception.
4. Finish AT LEAST 2 games above .500 in conference (and that’s a low bar to set). Really he needs to be finishing in the Top 5-6 in the B1G. It’s time to put up or shut up. No more moral victories.


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I've highlighted what I do actually agree with.

But, it's just not that absolute. Saying he MUST do these 4 things and has to do ALL 4, isn't productive at this point. Setting goals is fine. But what if we lose 11-12 games but are playing our best basketball at the end of the year and make a run to the elite 8? What if we have season like Wisconsin this year where we struggle early but come on late and end up with 10 regular season losses but the #1 seed in the BTT and a sleeper final four pick? There was exactly one single Big Ten team that was guaranteed to end the season with 10 losses or less....Maryland. The conference may not be next season what it was this season, but we just don't know enough yet to set a MUST not lose more than "X" amount of games expectation. 

Your second point...what was the point of saying he MUST do that? Play good basketball and then vaguely list several aspects of playing basketball. Just say we need to show more consistency, more consistent effort, and improved shooting. 

I agree a consistent presence in the top 25 goes a long way, and setting an expectation of consistently being in the top 5-6 of the Big Ten is a fair and very achievable expectation. I'd even say that top 4 should be a goal next season. But if we finish 6th or 7th and win the Big Ten Tournament and make a NCAA run....i'll take it all day.

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I've highlighted what I do actually agree with.
But, it's just not that absolute. Saying he MUST do these 4 things and has to do ALL 4, isn't productive at this point. Setting goals is fine. But what if we lose 11-12 games but are playing our best basketball at the end of the year and make a run to the elite 8? What if we have season like Wisconsin this year where we struggle early but come on late and end up with 10 regular season losses but the #1 seed in the BTT and a sleeper final four pick? There was exactly one single Big Ten team that was guaranteed to end the season with 10 losses or less....Maryland. The conference may not be next season what it was this season, but we just don't know enough yet to set a MUST not lose more than "X" amount of games expectation. 
Your second point...what was the point of saying he MUST do that? Play good basketball and then vaguely list several aspects of playing basketball. Just say we need to show more consistency, more consistent effort, and improved shooting. 
I agree a consistent presence in the top 25 goes a long way, and setting an expectation of consistently being in the top 5-6 of the Big Ten is a fair and very achievable expectation. I'd even say that top 4 should be a goal next season. But if we finish 6th or 7th and win the Big Ten Tournament and make a NCAA run....i'll take it all day.

Probably should have been more specific. I don’t think we should have more than 10 losses at the end of the regular season. That will solidly put us in the Top 25 for most of the season.
I listed those things about playing good basketball because those are things that haven’t ever happened under Archie. It’s a lot of standing around, dribbling and crappy pick n rolls. If he can’t evolve at that young if an age, he won’t make it. He needs a great season. Not just a chunk here or there. He needs to show that the whole thing can be put together.


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9 hours ago, rcs29 said:

Per Smith my $ is on him being who he is at this point. Similar to Devonte in regards to seemingly no improvement in bball IQ during his time at IU. Hope like hell I'm wrong but if I were a betting man I'd go with the latter of your 2 scenarios with him. Frustrating as hell because he seems to have all of the physical attributes necessary to be a complete monster.

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Your last sentence is why at some point, I hope he wakes up and realizes the gifts he has.   It is maddening, indeed.

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With more time on my hands than usual I just watched the 1987 semi-final game between IU and UNLV. I hadn't seen it since it was broadcast live and it was a great game to watch in the context of IU's current issues. That IU team operated in the half court offense as good as any IU team has, making very few mistakes in part because of the discipline. The players were patient with the ball and constantly moving without the ball, setting screens so that someone was usually open for a good shot many of them within a few feet for the basket. Of course, that was Bobby Knight basketball. It is quite a contrast with what we have now--players often standing around, few screens set and lots of 3-point shots from players who have no business taking those shots. After three seasons with Archie, there is still no discernible offensive approach and insufficent discipline on the offensive end. Players like Justin Smith might be playing at a higher level if their roles were more clearly defined and within their skill set--and they were required to play with more discipline.

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With more time on my hands than usual I just watched the 1987 semi-final game between IU and UNLV. I hadn't seen it since it was broadcast live and it was a great game to watch in the context of IU's current issues. That IU team operated in the half court offense as good as any IU team has, making very few mistakes in part because of the discipline. The players were patient with the ball and constantly moving without the ball, setting screens so that someone was usually open for a good shot many of them within a few feet for the basket. Of course, that was Bobby Knight basketball. It is quite a contrast with what we have now--players often standing around, few screens set and lots of 3-point shots from players who have no business taking those shots. After three seasons with Archie, there is still no discernible offensive approach and insufficent discipline on the offensive end. Players like Justin Smith might be playing at a higher level if their roles were more clearly defined and within their skill set--and they were required to play with more discipline.

That’s part of what bothers me the most is that after 3 years there is still no semblance of an offensive identity. We aren’t great in the half court and we don’t push the tempo. Our defense, while not terrible isn’t one that causes tons of turnovers that allows for us to change pace and counter. I just don’t know what we are trying to do? What does a well oiled Archie offense look like?


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That’s part of what bothers me the most is that after 3 years there is still no semblance of an offensive identity. We aren’t great in the half court and we don’t push the tempo. Our defense, while not terrible isn’t one that causes tons of turnovers that allows for us to change pace and counter. I just don’t know what we are trying to do? What does a well oiled Archie offense look like?


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I don’t think there is such a thing as a well oiled Archie offense. Our offensive outburst against good teams have been outliers. Marquette last year, Florida State, Iowa this season.


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I've been watching old games too, and what jumps out at me is that even with a 45 second shot clock, we still scored in the 70's and 80's pretty often. Whereas today, with a 30 second clock, we struggle to make it out of the 50's. 

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