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Class of '66 Old Fart

Coronavirus and Its Impact

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21 minutes ago, Napleshoosier said:

Fla shut down as of midnight for 30 days !!!


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If he had done so earlier, it likely would have helped other states as well as people traveled to Florida over spring break and brought it back.  

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-florida-gov-ron-desantis-issues-statewide-shutdown-2020-4

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If he had done so earlier, it likely would have helped other states as well as people traveled to Florida over spring break and brought it back.  
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-florida-gov-ron-desantis-issues-statewide-shutdown-2020-4

Yeah, it’s a tough decision no doubt. Pa just issued orders today as well.


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37 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

If he had done so earlier, it likely would have helped other states as well as people traveled to Florida over spring break and brought it back.  

Agreed.  I can't believe the number of locals in my area who just had to take their spring break trip to Florida last week and what they'll bring back with them besides suntans and seashells.  IDIOTS.

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1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

I'm on the daily tracker.....I'm not seeing where this is any listing for today on their daily tracker.  The lower right hand corner has the last date tracked as March 30th.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Anyway, if you follow worldometer, they track the numbers flowing in from the states.  From March 30 to March 31, the number of cases went up by 22,000.  The number of cases from March 31 to April 1 went up by 30,000 (this assumes that every state has posted their numbers today....if not, it could be more).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I just saw that, too.  The devil's in the details, right?   At least Dr. Fauci was a little more chipper today.

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1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what brass' reply was about there.  It seemed like you were just adding a personal anecdote, nothing more, and not even selling that it was proof.  Brass has been on top of things in terms of Covid news, just not sure what that reply was about.

His experiences are not evidence to say experts in the field are wrong. People using personal experiences rather than expert recommendation is a great reason we are in this mess 
 

1 hour ago, Old Friend said:

You can't pass up a chance to be a jerk, can you?   You posted the article which asked the same questions I asked.  I merely agreed with their hypothesis and you come back.....with this.   Why?  Help me understand why this was necessary when you yourself posted the article?   Drop your personal bullsh*t for just a while, okay?   

The article if you read it said that while it was possible it was implausible that it was spreading in the timeframe you said. 
 

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

I'm on the daily tracker.....I'm not seeing where this is any listing for today on their daily tracker.  The lower right hand corner has the last date tracked as March 30th.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Anyway, if you follow worldometer, they track the numbers flowing in from the states.  From March 30 to March 31, the number of cases went up by 22,000.  The number of cases from March 31 to April 1 went up by 30,000 (this assumes that every state has posted their numbers today....if not, it could be more).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

The numbers will go up more today. Several of the states post numbers multiple times a day. Most importantly New York. Death total jumped yesterday by like 200 after New York posted their final numbers. Think Florida does as well. Michigan may as well not sure. 

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1 hour ago, Brass Cannon said:

His experiences are not evidence to say experts in the field are wrong. People using personal experiences rather than expert recommendation is a great reason we are in this mess 
 

I understand that personal anecdote doesn't hold up to quantifiable evidence......I teach science.  But I see nothing in his comment saying that he has any proof that he and his son had coronavirus last December.  This wasn't someone claiming any degree of certainty about anything.

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12 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I understand that personal anecdote doesn't hold up to quantifiable evidence......I teach science.  But I see nothing in his comment saying that he has any proof that he and his son had coronavirus last December.  This wasn't someone claiming any degree of certainty about anything.

When your response to an expert is to post a personal story that you think proves them wrong I’m not sure what else you could possibly be claiming. 

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2 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

When your response to an expert is to post a personal story that you think proves them wrong I’m not sure what else you could possibly be claiming. 

Dude, get a grip.  Seriously.  I didn't say my experience proved anything nor did I claim anything.  Jesus, I said I was on board with parts in the article YOU posted.  I claimed nothing, nor did I have even the slightest bit of discussion with you which could have been viewed even by the most elementary person on the planet as "evidence."  You inferred it and that, pal?   That's on you.  What the hell is your deal other than the same old personal bullsh*t you've carried for years?   Get a grip on yourself and grow the hell up.

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1 hour ago, Brass Cannon said:

Over 1000 people today. Over 500 in New York. 3 days ago it was 500 in the whole country. Still doubling every 3 days. If we can’t buck that trend over 4000 die next Wednesday. 

Can you start including recoveries and % of deaths also? Those are also very important numbers as well!

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1 hour ago, Old Friend said:

Dude, get a grip.  Seriously.  I didn't say my experience proved anything nor did I claim anything.  Jesus, I said I was on board with parts in the article YOU posted.  I claimed nothing, nor did I have even the slightest bit of discussion with you which could have been viewed even by the most elementary person on the planet as "evidence."  You inferred it and that, pal?   That's on you.  What the hell is your deal other than the same old personal bullsh*t you've carried for years?   Get a grip on yourself and grow the hell up.

That article was literally said you were wrong or more exactly it said it was implausible you were right. 
 

34 minutes ago, jk34 said:

Can you start including recoveries and % of deaths also? Those are also very important numbers as well!

I’m not really following those.  With tests so impossible to get those stats are pretty junk so I’m not following them. I know 36% of cases in the US that have a resolution have been fatal. But that’s not at all accurate for a half a dozen reasons off the top of my head.  
 

Also i just think The scale of this will be measured in human life not how many people got it then recovered.  

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Absolutely correct on the number of resolved cases being off for a multitude of reasons.  I've heard that in order to be considered virus free, you need to have two negative tests after testing positive.  I highly doubt that this is happening in a vast majority of cases.  The treatment for suspected exposure without symptoms or with mild to moderate symptoms is no different:  self isolation if possible.  I am also positive that the vast majority of cases that have recovered are not getting two negative tests and being given a clean bill of health.....the pattern either seems to be being hospitalized because the symptoms could be fatal or to be told to go into self isolation until you are symptom free for a certain number of days.  WIth a shortage of tests, they have to conserve them for patients in more dire straits.

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Absolutely correct on the number of resolved cases being off for a multitude of reasons.  I've heard that in order to be considered virus free, you need to have two negative tests after testing positive.  I highly doubt that this is happening in a vast majority of cases.  The treatment for suspected exposure without symptoms or with mild to moderate symptoms is no different:  self isolation if possible.  I am also positive that the vast majority of cases that have recovered are not getting two negative tests and being given a clean bill of health.....the pattern either seems to be being hospitalized because the symptoms could be fatal or to be told to go into self isolation until you are symptom free for a certain number of days.  WIth a shortage of tests, they have to conserve them for patients in more dire straits.

It will be interesting to see if the death count for other “normal” causes of death like heart disease are down this year because those patients were included in the Covid count. Have heard that even suicides that have the Covid virus are being added to the Covid count right now.

I am not diminishing the problem though. We have 4 family members working in big hospitals right now. One is working 6 days a week with 10-12 hr days. Another is at a hospital in NO that is at capacity now and more patients are expected. One got the virus and is sidelined for another week and one delivered a baby from a Covid mother who immediately went on the Vent after delivering.

Stay home, be smart, eat well and stay healthy.


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We will need a better more efficient method of dealing with things like this going forward because shutting down the social and economic structures will likely cause more long term problems than the disease. This is not a one time event and is not even close to as bad as it could be. Ebola had an estimated 60% mortality rate but was much less contagious once method of transmission was understood. Population density almost guarantees that virus pandemics will be recurring, probably with increasing frequency. Given the global nature of this virus, the warming temperatures coming will likely not slow this one down. At some point, we will have to return to work and as normal as possible lives. Whether that includes crowded baseball and football stadiums or basketball arenas remains to be seen.

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We will need a better more efficient method of dealing with things like this going forward because shutting down the social and economic structures will likely cause more long term problems than the disease. This is not a one time event and is not even close to as bad as it could be. Ebola had an estimated 60% mortality rate but was much less contagious once method of transmission was understood. Population density almost guarantees that virus pandemics will be recurring, probably with increasing frequency. Given the global nature of this virus, the warming temperatures coming will likely not slow this one down. At some point, we will have to return to work and as normal as possible lives. Whether that includes crowded baseball and football stadiums or basketball arenas remains to be seen.

We are looking at June to July and that’s from the government instruction. We are a financial institution so I would guess we will be one of the first industries back. But I think one misconception I tried going into more early on and was repeatedly corrected on my numbers and explanations from the CDC “if I even talked to them” this was never about mortality rate. It’s about the overwhelming effect of amount versus chain supply/supply and how many rooms we had.

Anybody that has worked in healthcare can tell you in most healthcare systems we had atleast 25% more beds 20 years ago. A couple of things have changed to massively decrease that. Health systems were mostly just started about 20 years ago. 30 years ago they were non existent. I am going to use northern Indiana because it’s where I live. You had Lutheran and you had Parkview 25 years ago. Then you had area hospitals. With the rising cost of supplies for various political reasons those Parkviews and Lutheran started buying up area hospitals in the late 80s/early 90s. The big hospitals could get better prices as could the area hospitals. About 20 years ago when there were health systems they decided its best to have one hub (Parkview Regional Medical Center), and the area hospitals then feed into that one. The area hospitals were outpatient mostly facilities whereas PRMC became the critical care facility. Parkview has Wabash, Huntington, Randallia (opened up again due to shortages), warsaw, Whitley, Noble, LaGrange, and Dekalb. Out of all of those there is less than 50 CCU beds. In those hospitals you will be lucky if you have 5 ventilators. When the bigger hospitals get inundated those supplies stay at the big hospital. Now these hospitals can expand. But between those two health systems which is northern Indiana there are less than 500 CCU rooms. Can that cover northern Indiana?

Long winded response to say this has nothing to do with mortality rate. It has to do with transmission rate and the toll it is taking on our supply system and structure. In hospitals they will have to decide soon (already here in NYC) if they are saving you or the 70 year old healthcare worker. In some instances neither because they don’t have a ventilator to keep you from drowning.

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8 minutes ago, mdn82 said:


We are looking at June to July and that’s from the government instruction. We are a financial institution so I would guess we will be one of the first industries back. But I think one misconception I tried going into more early on and was repeatedly corrected on my numbers and explanations from the CDC “if I even talked to them” this was never about mortality rate. It’s about the overwhelming effect of amount versus chain supply/supply and how many rooms we had.

Anybody that has worked in healthcare can tell you in most healthcare systems we had atleast 25% more beds 20 years ago. A couple of things have changed to massively decrease that. Health systems were mostly just started about 20 years ago. 30 years ago they were non existent. I am going to use northern Indiana because it’s where I live. You had Lutheran and you had Parkview 25 years ago. Then you had area hospitals. With the rising cost of supplies for various political reasons those Parkviews and Lutheran started buying up area hospitals in the late 80s/early 90s. The big hospitals could get better prices as could the area hospitals. About 20 years ago when there were health systems they decided its best to have one hub (Parkview Regional Medical Center), and the area hospitals then feed into that one. The area hospitals were outpatient mostly facilities whereas PRMC became the critical care facility. Parkview has Wabash, Huntington, Randallia (opened up again due to shortages), warsaw, Whitley, Noble, LaGrange, and Dekalb. Out of all of those there is less than 50 CCU beds. In those hospitals you will be lucky if you have 5 ventilators. When the bigger hospitals get inundated those supplies stay at the big hospital. Now these hospitals can expand. But between those two health systems which is northern Indiana there are less than 500 CCU rooms. Can that cover northern Indiana?

Long winded response to say this has nothing to do with mortality rate. It has to do with transmission rate and the toll it is taking on our supply system and structure. In hospitals they will have to decide soon (already here in NYC) if they are saving you or the 70 year old healthcare worker. In some instances neither because they don’t have a ventilator to keep you from drowning.

I fully understand what you are saying and agree that has driven our response. The "just in time" economic model prevents us from being prepared for global events like this. Given the economic implications, I doubt that we will add permanent capacity to deal with the occasional crisis. Mortality drives the optics presented in the media with one sad story after another fueling emotional responses over rational ones.. I'm in the high risk group, so I'm not downplaying the seriousness of this virus. And the next time, and there will be a next time, the mortality rates might be much higher and the optics much worse. What I saying is that we need a rapid response infrastructure that does not include a permanent increase in hospital capacity or costly inventories. I believe that such a thing is possible. I just don't know if we have the will. Sometimes as I watch this unfold, I think we are so busy looking at the trees that we don't see the forest.

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20 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

The numbers will go up more today. Several of the states post numbers multiple times a day. Most importantly New York. Death total jumped yesterday by like 200 after New York posted their final numbers. Think Florida does as well. Michigan may as well not sure. 

The New York numbers are funky. NY state doesn't appear to post them.  The world meter website needs to just collect the numbers from the Governor's press conference.  Deaths went from 1941 to 2373 between the two press conferences 4/1-4/2.  That's a rise of 432.  The world meter site currently shows 154, which has softened the daily jumps the past few days.  Hopefully they get it smoothed out.  

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1 hour ago, cthomas said:

We will need a better more efficient method of dealing with things like this going forward because shutting down the social and economic structures will likely cause more long term problems than the disease. This is not a one time event and is not even close to as bad as it could be. Ebola had an estimated 60% mortality rate but was much less contagious once method of transmission was understood. Population density almost guarantees that virus pandemics will be recurring, probably with increasing frequency. Given the global nature of this virus, the warming temperatures coming will likely not slow this one down. At some point, we will have to return to work and as normal as possible lives. Whether that includes crowded baseball and football stadiums or basketball arenas remains to be seen.

We have beaten viruses before and we'll beat this one.  Whether there is any economy left when we do is the question.  Going forward, we really need to address non-transparent countries like China.  

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