Coronavirus and Its Impact

[Golfman25 4,576]

1 hour ago, 8bucks said:

The US numbers on the worldcount website are wired. I was looking at it near midnight (EST) and our number dropped to 2500 from 7600. Then the number for Sat now shows total new cases at 4800. I think they shifted 2500 from the Saturday count to the Sunday count.

At the pace we were growing we would have around 10k-10.5k today but we are already over 11.5k. However if you take away 2500 we are back on pace.

Not criticizing the counters it is just interesting


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They are pulling numbers from various sites. It's very fluid, not all sites and /or numbers are accurate.  I have seen maybe a 24 hr. lag.   

[Golfman25 4,576]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

 

While those numbers are accurate, the take-away from them is much less obvious:

-> Our cases are rising dramatically because our testing is rising even more dramatically.

Our fatality rate has dropped from about 4% a few weeks ago to about 1.5% yesterday. That's also a product of increased testing ability for people who were not dire enough to be hospitalized. That US fatality rate should continue to drop significantly.

Almost all of the fatalities are with the very elderly and those with significant pre-existing conditions. People in those categories should be very strictly quarantined IMO. 

 

 

It's also not taking into account population.  It's just looking at total numbers.  Based on population, we are doing relatively alright.  But it's going to take some time for all the test results to pass thru.   

[Old Friend 8,389]

The reality is we're never going to know an accurate number.  We're not going to know exactly how many had it, how many have recovered from it, nor how many really die from it.   The deaths count how many die while they have it, but the truth STILL is many who die from it also have underlying health conditions, so how many die from those?

Also, once it's here and a virus with a 9-14 day general active lifespan, at what point do we consider the worst is over?   We're in the second week of this thing, in all reality and while positive results are rising (and I know this has all been discussed), they are not doing so at an accelerated rate; nor are deaths.  We're currently at 1.2% death rate in the US.  Our population is so rural vs Italy that's largely urban, it's not necessary to take the same measures, but it IS necessary in densely populated areas such as New York City.

This whole situation is fluid and exceptionally difficult.   There is no simple answer nor is there any "damn, if we would only have done ______."    There is from a Chinese perspective.  This is on them...period.    But, with the benefit of hindsight, I am sickened by those politicizing this thing.   Personally?    I'm buying popcorn to sit and watch the world's reaction to China in a few weeks.

[8bucks 6,104]

It is amazing to me how quickly many countries are creatively resolving some problems with this.

 

We are only still barely 2 months removed from when this was not considered to be contagious (according to the WHO). Yet I have a friend who got tested last week and is waiting on results but less than a week later we can have results for some in less than an hour.

 

GM and Tesla are retooling operations so that they can now create ventilators. Others are doing the same with masks.

 

I read somewhere that S Korea was hit hard by SARS and that fueled many of the things that helped them in this crisis. We are going to learn from this crisis to help prepare for the next crisis.

 

There are certainly some things we could have done better but things like this are hard to plan for. Trying to resolve them on the fly as we have has been impressive.

 

 

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[Brass Cannon 24,062]

11 minutes ago, 8bucks said:

It is amazing to me how quickly many countries are creatively resolving some problems with this.

We are only still barely 2 months removed from when this was not considered to be contagious (according to the WHO). Yet I have a friend who got tested last week and is waiting on results but less than a week later we can have results for some in less than an hour.

GM and Tesla are retooling operator’s sounds that they can now create ventilators. Others are doing the same with masks.

I read somewhere that S Korea was hit hard by SARS and that fueled many of the things that helped them in this crisis. We are going to learn from this crisis to help prepare for the next crisis.

There are certainly some things we could have done better but things like this are hard to plan for. Trying to resolve them on the fly as we have has been impressive.


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We learned from H1N1, SARS and Ebola. It’s why we had a pandemic response unit. 
 

South Korea wasn’t really hit hard by SARS at all. Think they had 3 total deaths. South Korea apparently doesn’t forget lessons learned as easily as we do. 

[Golfman25 4,576]

16 minutes ago, 8bucks said:

It is amazing to me how quickly many countries are creatively resolving some problems with this.

 

We are only still barely 2 months removed from when this was not considered to be contagious (according to the WHO). Yet I have a friend who got tested last week and is waiting on results but less than a week later we can have results for some in less than an hour.

 

GM and Tesla are retooling operations so that they can now create ventilators. Others are doing the same with masks.

 

I read somewhere that S Korea was hit hard by SARS and that fueled many of the things that helped them in this crisis. We are going to learn from this crisis to help prepare for the next crisis.

 

There are certainly some things we could have done better but things like this are hard to plan for. Trying to resolve them on the fly as we have has been impressive.

 

 

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We have always been an ingenious society.  Go back to WW2, the Moon landing, thru today.  Our commercial sector has been a blessing.  Only wish we had more manufacturing capability in the country.  Could have really used it now.    

[Napleshoosier 9,768]

We will pull through this so an interesting topic we could discuss would be what industry groups ie stocks should rock when this is over. I think there’s going to be a lot of changes.

We are educated people and of course very opinionated so, what say you all? What stocks are going to kick @$$?


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[8bucks 6,104]

We learned from H1N1, SARS and Ebola. It’s why we had a pandemic response unit. 
 
South Korea wasn’t really hit hard by SARS at all. Think they had 3 total deaths. South Korea apparently doesn’t forget lessons learned as easily as we do. 

Sorry it was MERS in 2015. South Korea, perhaps Japan too are the poster children here for sure but I think we shut down travel even before they did. Even so, as this has the potential to get political, my point was to highlight to American spirit not this administration or that one.

We enacted the policy where we could call manufacturers and compel them to make something it instead we are getting flooded with companies proactively volunteering to make X or Y.

The time to get test results is just one example.


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[Brass Cannon 24,062]

3 minutes ago, Napleshoosier said:

We will pull through this so an interesting topic we could discuss would be what industry groups ie stocks should rock when this is over. I think there’s going to be a lot of changes.

We are educated people and of course very opinionated so, what say you all? What stocks are going to kick @$$?


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Not sure what stocks will take off. But I got a feeling movie theaters may never recover. Infrastructure for digital releases is getting put in place. 

[8bucks 6,104]

We have always been an ingenious society.  Go back to WW2, the Moon landing, thru today.  Our commercial sector has been a blessing.  Only wish we had more manufacturing capability in the country.  Could have really used it now.    

We need more trained workers too. I am in sales and call on large manufacturers and when I ask them what their #1 challenge is (before the virus) finding workers. I expect we will see an even greater manufacturing surge once this is done but we will need to resolve the worker shortage


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[Stuhoo 75,377]

15 minutes ago, Napleshoosier said:

We will pull through this so an interesting topic we could discuss would be what industry groups ie stocks should rock when this is over. I think there’s going to be a lot of changes.

We are educated people and of course very opinionated so, what say you all? What stocks are going to kick @$$?


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I’m gonna try:

Booze. Lots of people developing a regular taste.

Online streaming of anything.

Real Estate.

Medical startups.

Companies that sell exercise gear and outdoors gear. Can’t believe how many new runners, bikers, and fishermen there are this week.

 

[Old Friend 8,389]

1 hour ago, Golfman25 said:

We have always been an ingenious society.  Go back to WW2, the Moon landing, thru today.  Our commercial sector has been a blessing.  Only wish we had more manufacturing capability in the country.  Could have really used it now.    

The political fireball you could start with this discussion could ignite a new sun.

[Golfman25 4,576]

1 hour ago, 8bucks said:

We need more trained workers too. I am in sales and call on large manufacturers and when I ask them what their #1 challenge is (before the virus) finding workers. I expect we will see an even greater manufacturing surge once this is done but we will need to resolve the worker shortage


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That comes with making manufacturing cool in the high schools and to parents.  If it’s viewed as a growing and prosperous industry and not one subject to outsourcing, the workers will be there. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart 80,841]

I believe the IOC has announced it will make a decision within the next 4 weeks regarding the 2020 Olympics and up for consideration is a scaled back Olympics, a postponement or full cancellation.  I believe Canada is the first such country to announce it will not send athletes to the  2020 Olympics.  Under the current world environment trying to maintain training regimens is virtually impossible.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

The World Economic Forum has been updating statistics and information and has the trend graph which now shows the US on a pretty scary trend line closer to Italy than South Korea. 

The US’s is going to be a steep curve. We went from a very very limited amount of test and now we are gaining many more. More and more and more are being tested. So it went from very little data and slow to a lot of data coming in because the test is able to be given out more.


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[8bucks 6,104]

The US’s is going to be a steep curve. We went from a very very limited amount of test and now we are gaining many more. More and more and more are being tested. So it went from very little data and slow to a lot of data coming in because the test is able to be given out more.


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I think you are right. We put in early mitigation but the testing is really just now picking up. Hopefully the mitigation helps flatten the curve.

Does the population of the US being higher than all but China create a steeper curve too?


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[Hardwood83 4,461]

14 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

The US’s is going to be a steep curve. We went from a very very limited amount of test and now we are gaining many more. More and more and more are being tested. So it went from very little data and slow to a lot of data coming in because the test is able to be given out more.


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That sounds scary (US is on a steep curve) but what does that mean? The fact is COVID -19 is only dangerous to the old and infirm. That isn't good news, but also isn't a reason to panic and institute draconian measures like the ridiculous "shelter in place." Children are basically immune to it, so our efforts should be on protecting those that are vulnerable (again ONLY the old and immuno-compromised) and definitely NOT pretending it's the black plague and everyone is equally at risk. Most of what we hear and see is hysteria and fear-mongering. Look at the facts and it's a LOT less scary. Over-reacting is the greatest danger, IMO. Fear is much more contagious than COVID-19 and has a greater potential for harm. 

We've already damaged our economy enormously and if you think that doesn't impact people's lives and health you aren't paying attention. Second, the restrictions are creating the possibility of damaging our supply lines for food, etc. Not because people are sick, but because of the artificial constraints in place. If store shelves are empty there will be civil unrest. Once that begins all bets are off. Fortunately, I don't believe those things will happen. I believe in 2-3 weeks the truth will become obvious (there won't be millions of corpses lying in the streets or even overwhelmed hospitals) and normalcy will slowly resume. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

I think you are right. We put in early mitigation but the testing is really just now picking up. Hopefully the mitigation helps flatten the curve.

Does the population of the US being higher than all but China create a steeper curve too?


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I mean it could I guess in densely populated areas like LA, NY and Chicago. The growing amount of test will make it go up. Not that it changes anything. We have no idea who has it with such limited testing. So the more we get, the steeper it’ll get for now. Problem is, it’ll look bad. Say we had the amount of testing in the beginning as we do now, you’d see a flatter curve.


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[Golfman25 4,576]

1 hour ago, 8bucks said:

I think you are right. We put in early mitigation but the testing is really just now picking up. Hopefully the mitigation helps flatten the curve.

Does the population of the US being higher than all but China create a steeper curve too?


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The scary curves being bandied about show number of cases.  They are not adjusted for population. We have way more people — 300+mil vs 60 mil.  So we will have more total cases, but based on population we’ll be much less affected.  

[Hoosierfan2017 19,845]

This should scare everyone a whole lot more than anything about the virus itself.