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IUc2016

Early BIG Projections (2020-21)

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Didn’t we beat OSU back in 2014 without any bigs? Vonleh was out I remember. I think we just had Hanner.


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Yes we did. Jeremy hollowell actually started that game alongside Austin etherington. I was behind the basket for that game, and we chanted some nasty things at Aaron Craft for a good majority of it.


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On 3/16/2020 at 2:55 PM, IUc2016 said:

These projections include some expected NBA departures. I expect it to be another brutal year in the BIG, but I don't think there will be 12 teams vying for a tournament bid like most of the 2019 season. 

1. Wisconsin (Return everyone from the BIG championship team)

2. MSU (Lose Cassius and may struggle with PG play, but have Joey Hauser eligible for next season)

3. Rutgers (Mostly return everyone of note unless Geo Baker decides to leave.)

4. Purdue (This assumes their offense improves and their elite defense stays the same)

5. Indiana (TJD expected to come back, if Lander reclassifies I think the ceiling gets much higher)

6. Michigan (Have a lot of talent coming in, but the loss of Zavier and Teske hurts. Plus they finished 8th this year with those two)

7. Iowa (This assumes Garza leaves and they lack front court ability. If he comes back they are in the top four range)

8. Ohio State (expected to Lose Kaleb Wesson and Carton, gaffney, and muhammad are transferring, will be interesting season for Holtmann. He does have two talented transfers coming in who will help. 

9. Illinois (lose griffin to transfer and most likely Ayo to draft. That may be too much to overcome despite the talent coming in.

10. Maryland (Lose Smith and Cowan. No notable recruits coming in)

11. Penn State (They will have a tough backcourt, but the loss of Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins will be too much)

12. Northwestern (showed a lot of fight this year but were too young to close out games. Still a year away IMO from competing at a high level)

13. Minnesota (Oturu declared for draft. Doesn't look good for a coach on the hot seat)

14. Nebraska (No idea what this roster will look like next year but it doesn't look good right now)

 

This is all very early and very fluid. Still worth some discussion since there is literally nothing else to discuss. 

 

Ohio State has dropped back to the middle of the pack for me. Unless Wesson comes back, it will be interesting to see how Holtmann does with this roster full of 6'6 forwards with few guards and one unproven front court player. 

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Is anyone still jealous of OSU?


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I mean OSU has performed better than IU in each season since Holtmann arrived. I wouldn’t put it past them to overachieve next year and find a way to play small ball well.

I will always root for IU but to dismiss Holtmann moving forward isn’t a good idea


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I mean OSU has performed better than IU in each season since Holtmann arrived. I wouldn’t put it past them to overachieve next year and find a way to play small ball well.

I will always root for IU but to dismiss Holtmann moving forward isn’t a good idea


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That’s fair. But I feel as though he hasn’t done as well with his players at OSU versus their rankings. The transfers this year hurt him imo. His best year was his first. With a Senior burger boy. Losing Carton hurts. I really haven’t seen him overachieve yet. Maybe his first year getting them to play cohesively. Matta couldn’t do that. I wouldn’t say I am dismissing them going forward, but they aren’t going to be a top tier team with the roster turnover they are having. To me Matta and what he did in his first 10 years would be their expectations and I don’t see him getting there.


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21 minutes ago, MikeRoberts said:


I mean OSU has performed better than IU in each season since Holtmann arrived. I wouldn’t put it past them to overachieve next year and find a way to play small ball well.

I will always root for IU but to dismiss Holtmann moving forward isn’t a good idea


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I agree. I do like Holtmann, but I would argue he has had more talent at OSU every year so he should have performed better. Honestly, that talent had more to do with Matta and where OSU was rather than anything Holtmann did. Other than Carton obviously

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The first year for Archie and Holtman I think both IU and OSU overachieved; OSU more so.

The last two years? The records of the two programs have been extremely similar; maybe when examining a blind resume OSU has been better by a hair. One of those years that hair got OSU in the tourney as a last four in, and IU as a first four out. That's a minor difference that mattered a lot! The past year both were in, with OSU looking like a one or two higher seed line.

Next year given the likely roster construction of each school? I'd be shocked if IU did not out-perform OSU.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

The first year for Archie and Holtman I think both IU and OSU overachieved; OSU more so.

The last two years? The records of the two programs have been extremely similar; maybe when examining a blind resume OSU has been better by a hair. One of those years that hair got OSU in the tourney as a last four in, and IU as a first four out. That's a minor difference that mattered a lot! The past year both were in, with OSU looking like a one or two higher seed line.

Next year given the likely roster construction of each school? I'd be shocked if IU did not out-perform OSU.

 

 

This is where I am at. IU right now, has more talent than OSU and should be better next year. 

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52 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

It’s kinda crazy to think about how good some of those Thad Matta teams were. The Big Ten was just missing elite teams this season. Maybe next season will be better.


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I remember when some of our fans used to criticize him and say he underachieved every year. He ended up being the winningest coach in their program's history. We might have been able to hire him back in 2006 if our administration hadn't been hell-bent on keeping minorities happy. 

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I remember when some of our fans used to criticize him and say he underachieved every year. He ended up being the winningest coach in their program's history. We might have been able to hire him back in 2006 if our administration hadn't been hell-bent on keeping minorities happy. 

His criticism is due to how stacked his teams were and how they did in the tournament. I am not a fan of that outlook. I think he was a phenomenal recruiter early on. Solid coach. His teams were never cohesive and peaking for the tourney. Once his health started to go he didn’t get the top 10 kids semi regularly he got. They became top 25-40. Still great, but it didn’t play out that way on the court for various reasons. Great run though.

 

 

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"The first year for Archie and Holtman I think both IU and OSU overachieved;"

OSU definitely overachieved. But how did IU overachieve during Archie's first year? They were 16-15.  They had several good and well rated players back including senior Robert Johnson, junior Juwan Morgan, and sophomore D'ron Davis  (who got hurt half way through the season), as well as Collin Hartman. They didn't beat anyone who was any good and they lost to several teams with weaker personnel. IU lost to Indiana State and IUFP. They lost in the Big Ten Tournament to lowly Rutgers. IU didn't even make the NIT much less the NCAA.  It is hard to make the argument they overachieved during Archie's first season. The only thing one can conclude about the first season was that it was Archie's first season and his recruits were not playing yet.

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5 minutes ago, Honkyman said:

"The first year for Archie and Holtman I think both IU and OSU overachieved;"

OSU definitely overachieved. But how did IU overachieve during Archie's first year? They were 16-15.  They had several good and well rated players back including senior Robert Johnson, junior Juwan Morgan, and sophomore D'ron Davis  (who got hurt half way through the season), as well as Collin Hartman. They didn't beat anyone who was any good and they lost to several teams with weaker personnel. IU lost to Indiana State and IUFP. They lost in the Big Ten Tournament to lowly Rutgers. IU didn't even make the NIT much less the NCAA.  It is hard to make the argument they overachieved during Archie's first season. The only thing one can conclude about the first season was that it was Archie's first season and his recruits were not playing yet.


We had Freddie McSwain, Josh Newkirk, a walk on Zach McRoberts, and a completely physically broken Hartman as regulars in our starting lineup. Juwan was an excellent player, but that year he was also by far our best rim protector at 6’7”. RoJo played really hard and was an asset to that team, but he was a low percentage shooter (42.7 fg%) without a handle, (2.7 assists/2.5 tos per game that year) and he didn’t even sniff the GLeague much.

 

 

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IU was terrible Archie's first season. We couldn't beat anyone who was any good and we lost to several teams that we should have beaten. There is no way one can conclude that IU overachieved Archie's first year. BTW, Robert Johnson was a top 100 4-star player coming out of high school who was a good college player, especially during his first three years.

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3 hours ago, Stuhoo said:


We had Freddie McSwain, Josh Newkirk, a walk on Zach McRoberts, and a completely physically broken Hartman as regulars in our starting lineup. Juwan was an excellent player, but that year he was also by far our best rim protector at 6’7”. RoJo played really hard and was an asset to that team, but he was a low percentage shooter (42.7 fg%) without a handle, (2.7 assists/2.5 tos per game that year) and he didn’t even sniff the GLeague much.

 

 

If we could dig up the preseason predictions from the fall of 2017, I'd be willing to bet most people expected a lot more than 16-15 with no postseason and a slew of embarrassing losses. That season was a failure. 

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Notable BIG player movement this week:

Luka Garza - NBA Draft (option to return open)

Kofi Cockburn - NBA Draft (Option to return Open

Jalen Smith - NBA Draft (Gone)

Matt Haarms - Transfer

David Dejulius - Transfer 

Colin Castleton - Transfer

Luther Muhammad - Transfer

Payton Willis - Transfer

 

From what I have read and heard I expect Luka to be back. Difficult to tell about Kofi, but I think he is gone. 

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