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Str8Hoosiers

Prediction League (Game 21 - @ Penn State 1/29/20)

By Str8Hoosiers, in Indiana Men's Basketball

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Str8Hoosiers    2,965

Str8Hoosiers
Posted

This is a tough one for me.... and I have been absolutely terrible lately at picking anything right... 1 more chance and then I am scrapping my whole system... 

Penn State is a marginally better team than us overall this year -2.4, Penn State is at Home -4, we have been playing better lately +3, we are coming off a hard fought loss +2, Penn State is PENN FREAKING STATE +5, We haven't shown the ability to even remotely play well on the road -3, we have been scoring better +2, but the defense has had some lapses too -3....

And after all that nonsense I am basically at a tie ball game... and since that can't happen I predict we go to Overtime and score more points than would be expected but come up short...

IU 75

Penn State 78

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BottomLine    677

BottomLine
Posted

I think we have reached the point in the season where you can start throwing out all of the "expert" advice and start relying on gut feeling.  I have a good feeling about this game.  Penn St is about a 5 point favorite, depending on who you check.  They are good at home as their 11-1 home record indicates.  We, on the other hand, are 1-3 in true away gamer.  Edge to Penn St.  Seasonally Penn State has an edge in offense 76.45 to 72.68.  We, on the other hand have a very slight edge in defense 68.26 to 68.56.  On paper that probably gives an edge to Penn St.  Overall since 2008 the record between the teams is 13-8 in favor of the Hoosiers.  That stat isn't particularly meaningful but it does indicate that the programs have been competitive, but Penn St has struggled a bit more historically.  With all that said my eyeball test says that IU is starting to come together and is playing better.  If they don't screw up at the end and beat Maryland in their last game or if the Jackson-Davis shot at the end falls, people would probably be looking at this game differently.  I predict that we are going to level out that home loss with a road win tonight.  I'd be more confident betting against the spread but I think we can take this one straight up.  It is gut check time for the Hoosiers.

IU 76

Penn St 70

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