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Str8Hoosiers

Prediction League (Game 13 - Arkansas 12/29/19)

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On paper, the teams seem very similar: They're 10-1, we're 11-1. Neither has really beaten anybody (outside of our win over FSU). We went 1-1 against them last season (losing by 1 in Arkansas; winning by 3 at the Hall in the NIT). Both lost leading scorers from a year ago. 

I'd love to say we win by 10-12, but nothing is easy for this team, so ... 

Hoosiers 71

Hogs 68

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Finals and that distraction is over.  Plenty of rest and practice time to get ready for Arkansas.  Phinisee in particular needed the time.  So I'm thinking that our guys should be healthy and ready to play.  Students are home on break but this is Arkansas and not the Indiana School for the Blind that we are playing, and the crowd should be there and into the game.  I'll take the home court advantage and be glad to have it. 

Game opened at 4.5 IU in Vegas and almost immediately was bumped up to 5.5.  The over under is 140.5 so that makes the implied about 73-68 Hoosiers.  I think that o/u is a bit low.  IU has a habit of beating the o/u this year and I think they will be over again.

Think Arkansas may be a bit better than us on defense but we are better on offense, unless Arkansas gets hot from outside.  Here we go again.  Guard that line!  Arkansas has 38 3-pointers in their last four game.  I figure whey will put up about 30.  Sounds a lot like Notre Dame.  Indiana will need to win this game on the defensive end of the court.  We will also need to take care of the ball.

On the other hand Arkansas has not had a chance to prove themselves against better competition.  They do not have a win over a group I or II program.  IU figures to be one of their top 5 or 6 opponents this year.  Arkansas has not been a good road team.  They are 2-1 but the wins were squeakers.  We were closely matched last year but I think we are better this year and Arkansas has taken a step back.

So what does all that mean?  Beats me!  I'm predicting a total of 150 and an 8 point IU victory.  So I'm going with IU 79 and Ark 71.

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