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Str8Hoosiers

Prediction League (Game 9 - @ Wisconsin 12/7/19)

By Str8Hoosiers, in Indiana Men's Basketball

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BottomLine    677

BottomLine
Posted

Wisconsin!  I HATE Wisconsin.  The thing to remember is that what happened 20-15-10 or 5 years ago has no impact on the game being played on Saturday.  Really?  Really!  The physical aspect of games in the past have no impact on the game played at present.  On the other hand the mental aspect can have an impact.  What is this year's team thinking.  Have we been snake-bit so often in Madison that when crunch time comes we will expect it to happen again?  I'm thinking not, but we will just have to see.  I'm thinking that this team can be pretty tough minded.

On paper this is IU's game to lose despite the fact that Vegas has it as pick 'em with an o/u of 128.5.  I'm not buying that.  I know Wisky has a reputation for playing defense but 128.5 is way too low.  IU has been over in 6 of 8 games with much higher o/us than that.  Does Wisconsin have the firepower to keep up in a much higher scoring game?  I don't think so.  Their offensive average for the year is 66.5.  In their three games with major competition they are 64.7.  That fits in nicely with Indiana's defensive average of 63.6.  The simple fact is that Wisconsin is a 60 point range team and needs to hold Indiana to the lower 60's or 50's to win.  They aren't good enough to do that.  Florida State, which probably plays much tougher defense than this group from Wisconsin, held IU to 80.  Meanwhile North Carolina State pounded on Wisconsin.  Which is the tougher team NC State or Fla St?  I'm thinking Fla St.  On the other hand, if the referees swallow their whistles that could be a problem.  Florida States problem was that they couldn't guard without fouling.  But everyone has had that problem with IU this year.

Wisconsin's effective field goal percentage in their last three games has been 41.0, 35.8, 42.0.  Their turnover rates in their last three have been 23.3, 22.4, and 15.4.  Those numbers can get you beat by even a good mid-major.  Is home cooking going to fix that?  Where are the points going to come from?

Vegas has this at 128.5 o/u and an implied score of 64.5 to 64.

Hard to picture Wisconsin scoring more points than Florida State.  So I'll shave 4 points to get Wisconsin's score.  On the other hand I don't think Wisconsin can apply as much pressure as Florida State, so I'll take the same score for the Hoosiers just to be a bit conservative.  And there you go.  How did you come up with your numbers?

IU - 80     Wisconsin- 60      Let's break the losing streak in a BIG way.  Go Hoosiers.

thebigweave, HoosierAloha and IUsafety reacted to this

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cappymo14    2,276

cappymo14
Posted

My numbers are based on that any game against Wisconsin is about number of possessions, turnovers which cut into that already low number, 3pt defense, and defensive rebounding. Vegas nailed it in my opinion. This is our first road game. I think I know what’s coming but I’m not going to say it because I’m going to be there.

IU 71

UW 65

 

 

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