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Uspshoosier

Bracketology and Team Resumes

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Yesterday was not a good day for the Hoosiers. Big Quad 1 wins by bubble teams like Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, and Providence (who all have better conference and road records than IU) make today’s game a huge one. I realize there are other metrics that will be looked at, but the basic eye test says that there isn’t much separating some of these borderline teams and Indiana. I don’t think IU a lock at all. Especially if they end up with a losing record in the B1G and 2-8 road record.
 
Today is must-win in my opinion.
 
 
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This game is not a must win at all. Take care of business at home and IU is in without a doubt. All they really need is one more win to solidify their spot. Clemson is not getting in and Texas most likely is not getting in either unless they do some serious damage in their conference tournaments or win it. Oklahoma and Providence were both projected in the tourney anyway, they just helped their position with bubble teams behind them. On the contrary, Florida, Arizona State, and Texas Tech all lost to bubble teams or teams that won’t make it. They were all close to the same seed line as IU. Losing a Quad 1 road game is not going to hurt IU in any way. This game is only an opportunity. Win and your ticket is punched, lose and it’s no big deal.


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2 minutes ago, jbell833 said:


This game is not a must win at all. Take care of business at home and IU is in without a doubt. All they really need is one more win to solidify their spot. Clemson is not getting in and Texas most likely is not getting in either unless they do some serious damage in their conference tournaments or win it. Oklahoma and Providence were both projected in the tourney anyway, they just helped their position with bubble teams behind them. On the contrary, Florida, Arizona State, and Texas Tech all lost to bubble teams or teams that won’t make it. They were all close to the same seed line as IU. Losing a Quad 1 road game is not going to hurt IU in any way. This game is only an opportunity. Win and your ticket is punched, lose and it’s no big deal.


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^^Completely spot on^^
 

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This game is not a must win at all. Take care of business at home and IU is in without a doubt. All they really need is one more win to solidify their spot. Clemson is not getting in and Texas most likely is not getting in either unless they do some serious damage in their conference tournaments or win it. Oklahoma and Providence were both projected in the tourney anyway, they just helped their position with bubble teams behind them. On the contrary, Florida, Arizona State, and Texas Tech all lost to bubble teams or teams that won’t make it. They were all close to the same seed line as IU. Losing a Quad 1 road game is not going to hurt IU in any way. This game is only an opportunity. Win and your ticket is punched, lose and it’s no big deal.


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So 1 win and IU ends up sub .500 and 2-8 on the road in the B1G (2 true road wins on the year) and you’re telling me they are in without a doubt? I don’t see it. Not to
Mention IU is historically bad in the B1G Tourney. There are too many of the Texas, Clemson, Texas Tech, Etc’s. out there for me to be that confident.


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10 minutes ago, Baltimore Hoosier said:

 


So 1 win and IU ends up sub .500 and 2-8 on the road in the B1G (2 true road wins on the year) and you’re telling me they are in without a doubt? I don’t see it. Not to
Mention IU is historically bad in the B1G Tourney. There are too many of the Texas, Clemson, Texas Tech, Etc’s. out there for me to be that confident.


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Take a look at the last four in and last four out and see if you think their resumes are better than IU.  Clemson is 15-13 with a ton of losses to similar 15-13 type of teams (and a loss to Yale).....Clemson is not seriously anywhere near the bubble. Texas has 11 losses and is .500 in a Big 12 conference that really only has two upper tier teams this year.  Texas Tech is safely in right now and moving back.

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So 1 win and IU ends up sub .500 and 2-8 on the road in the B1G (2 true road wins on the year) and you’re telling me they are in without a doubt? I don’t see it. Not to

Mention IU is historically bad in the B1G Tourney. There are too many of the Texas, Clemson, Texas Tech, Etc’s. out there for me to be that confident.

 

 

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Yep. Conference record means 0 during selection and IU would have 4 wins away from home so in that case yeah IU would be in without a doubt finishing 19-12 overall with 0 losses outside the NET top 46 and 3 top 17 wins to go along with 2 other top 30 wins, 2 other top 50 wins( one on the road), 2 neutral court top 61 wins.

 

That would be 7 top 50 wins

10 top 100 wins

0 losses outside the the top 46

SOS- 53

SOR-27

Ken Pom-38

SAR-28

Avg net loss- 27

Even with a loss in the B1G tourney that would leave IU with only 1 bad loss and an overall record of 19-13. 6 games over .500. I would take IU’s chances in that case as well

 

There is a reason that most experts don’t even have IU on the bubble as of today because their resume is stronger then those teams on the bubble. Now if IU loses a home game to Minny then IU is probably going to fall to the bubble but until then they are not even close to the cutline

 

 

 

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The problem is that most of us tend to try to think about selection using our own measures while USPS is approaching it from what the NCAA thinks.  There is a reason that before yesterday UCLA wasn’t in anyone’s bracket despite leading the PAC 12.

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1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

On the flip side
IU has won 5 games against the top 29 NET at home this year where they have won by an average of a little over 10


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In you play 13 games against top 35 NETtish teams — 5 at home and 8 on the road — and win 5, you are a tournament team.

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Sunday's biggest Bubble Games: Wichita State (at SMU), Cincinnati (at Houston), Xavier (at Georgetown), Rhode Island (vs. Saint Louis), Stanford (vs. Colorado)
Bracketville


Bubble Teams to track today:

Cincinnati (At Houston)
Xavier (At Georgetown)
Rhode Island (Saint Louis)
Wichita State (At SMU)
Stanford (Colorado)
Jon Rothstein


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Sunday's biggest Bubble Games: Wichita State (at SMU), Cincinnati (at Houston), Xavier (at Georgetown), Rhode Island (vs. Saint Louis), Stanford (vs. Colorado)
Bracketville


Bubble Teams to track today:

Cincinnati (At Houston)
Xavier (At Georgetown)
Rhode Island (Saint Louis)
Wichita State (At SMU)
Stanford (Colorado)
Jon Rothstein


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Neither of which have Indiana listed. Good news for those naysayers


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I feel dirty rooting for Houston.  The Xavier/Georgetown one is interesting because Xavier is currently at a 10 seed in the bracketmatrix while Georgetown is in only 1 of 103 brackets.  A Xavier win should put them in the safely in category and basically eliminate Georgetown.  A loss by Xavier probably drops them down to a worse 10 or high 11 and keeps Georgetown alive but still not in.

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Yep. Conference record means 0 during selection and IU would have 4 wins away from home so in that case yeah IU would be in without a doubt finishing 19-12 overall with 0 losses outside the NET top 46 and 3 top 17 wins to go along with 2 other top 30 wins, 2 other top 50 wins( one on the road), 2 neutral court top 61 wins.

 

That would be 7 top 50 wins

10 top 100 wins

0 losses outside the the top 46

SOS- 53

SOR-27

Ken Pom-38

SAR-28

Avg net loss- 27

Even with a loss in the B1G tourney that would leave IU with only 1 bad loss and an overall record of 19-13. 6 games over .500. I would take IU’s chances in that case as well

 

There is a reason that most experts don’t even have IU on the bubble as of today because their resume is stronger then those teams on the bubble. Now if IU loses a home game to Minny then IU is probably going to fall to the bubble but until then they are not even close to the cutline

 

 

 

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“An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings,” are all taken into account, so saying that the conference record doesn’t matter isn’t really accurate. They are clearly monitoring how teams are doing in-conference.

 

Road record is terrible and the non conference schedule was bad. IU benefited from more quad 1 win opportunities than most teams just based on the conference, but they converted only 6 of them total. Unfortunately, whether or not Andy Bottoms has IU on his bubble list doesn’t matter until all the conference games are played and the dust settles.

 

I’m not confident at all about this team making an appearance at this point. Other bubble teams seem to be heating up and IU is barely treading water.

 

 

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Good news for IU ... Hoosiers finish with two at home. Winning one eases concerns heading into B10 tourney. They host Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Bracketville


Indiana now 8-10 in Big Ten with two home games left against Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Probably just need one to breathe easy for NCAA tourney bid.
Jeff Goodman





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All tied at 36 here in Champaign. These two teams are likely to be in the tourney. Illinois for sure. IU with 1 or 2 more wins. Solid half of play by each.

Delphi Bracketology


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We better grab 2. Things could get dicey. With 1 it’s going to be fingers crossed on Sunday.


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All tied at 36 here in Champaign. These two teams are likely to be in the tourney. Illinois for sure. IU with 1 or 2 more wins. Solid half of play by each.

Delphi Bracketology


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Good news for IU ... Hoosiers finish with two at home. Winning one eases concerns heading into B10 tourney. They host Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Bracketville


Indiana now 8-10 in Big Ten with two home games left against Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Probably just need one to breathe easy for NCAA tourney bid.
Jeff Goodman





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These hot-takes don’t take into account what other bubble teams do in that same stretch. I’m seeing “likely” and “probably” being used because these guys are assuming IU takes care of business at home, which has been dicey as of late. And keep in mind, this season, there are more bubble type teams than I can remember in a long time.



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