Bracketology and Team Resumes

[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,879]

Arizona is getting worked over at home by the worst team in the Pac12. Have to wonder what kind of position this puts Arizona in. I know the NET has Arizona top 10 but Sagarin has them at 33. Overall record would be 20-11 (10-8 in Pac12) They are 3-7 vs Quad 1, 5-3 vs Quad 2, and 12-1 vs Quads 3/4. They will have 4 sub 60 NET losses (Washington, Oregon State, St. John’s, UCLA) This resume looks similar or worse than ours.


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[RaceToTheTop 23,546]

Arkansas' attempt to get back int he conversation probably ended with a loss at Texas A&M today.

Furman lost in the So Con quarterfinals.  Not that bid of deal, but the thought was that the only way East Tennessee St could possibly have a chance of at an at large bid would have been if they lost to Furman in the finals.

 

[RaceToTheTop 23,546]

16 minutes ago, jbell833 said:

Arizona is getting worked over at home by the worst team in the Pac12. Have to wonder what kind of position this puts Arizona in. I know the NET has Arizona top 10 but Sagarin has them at 33. Overall record would be 20-11 (10-8 in Pac12) They are 3-7 vs Quad 1, 5-3 vs Quad 2, and 12-1 vs Quads 3/4. They will have 4 sub 60 NET losses (Washington, Oregon State, St. John’s, UCLA) This resume looks similar or worse than ours.


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Have gotten it down to 9 with 14 1/2 left.  Pattern today has been for bubble teams to get down big, come back, and then a shot at the buzzer either wins or loses it.

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

Teams it appears with the most at stake in the next few days ... Texas Tech, Texas, Stanford, Xavier, UCLA.

Bracketville


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[Uspshoosier 44,195]

Dropped to 60 in the NET


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[Uspshoosier 44,195]

Dropped to 60 in the NET


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4 Q1 wins with Penn St losing yesterday

Still have 3Q1a wins and 5 top 35 wins


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[Hoosier Guy 7,472]

Yeah Penn State losing that game yesterday definitely drops them

[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,879]

Dropped to 60 in the NET


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Dropped 9 spots after losing in the final minute to B1G Champs and top 25 team?!?! Huh??? Purdue loses to bubble team Rutgers and drops 1 spot. Ok.


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[IUc2016 6,915]

Dropped 9 spots after losing in the final minute to B1G Champs and top 25 team?!?! Huh??? Purdue loses to bubble team Rutgers and drops 1 spot. Ok.


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Too much based on analytics and not enough on actual results IMO.


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[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,879]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
According to the #1 Bracketologist our overall seed (35) stayed the same and stayed at 9 seed. 9 teams below us before we’d even be considered to be left out.


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[Brass Cannon 24,064]

18 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

 

Too much based on analytics and not enough on actual results IMO.


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This is bad analytic even. 

[Uspshoosier 44,195]

According to Pomeroy rankings, #iubb (39th) is 7-11 vs. teams ranked higher than them, 12-1 vs. teams ranked lower than them.
According to NET rankings, #iubb (60th) is 9-12 vs. better teams, 10-0 vs. worse teams.

Chronic Hoosier


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[MoyeNeeded 3,073]

Bad day for Bubble teams yesterday. That bodes well for us. Unless an absolute calapse vs Nebraska, we are securely in.

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,723]

Too much based on analytics and not enough on actual results IMO.


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It is based on actual results. It puts emphasis on margin of defeat and margin of victory instead on just W/L. Therefore it’s trying to be a correlation of the “eye test” and analytics.

Despite building a fairly solid NCAA resume we haven’t looked good in the process except for a handful of games.


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[LIHoosier 24,991]

32 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

It is based on actual results. It puts emphasis on margin of defeat and margin of victory instead on just W/L. Therefore it’s trying to be a correlation of the “eye test” and analytics.

Despite building a fairly solid NCAA resume we haven’t looked good in the process except for a handful of games.


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Problem is with the adj off/def numbers, weighting those too much means a couple of blowouts against decent teams outweigh a whole bunch of losses. 

[RaceToTheTop 23,546]

So, IU dropped 9 spots yesterday in NET....for losing a Quad 1 game.  IU is at 60, Minnesota is in 40s.  Can we just stop the NET madness.

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,723]

Problem is with the adj off/def numbers, weighting those too much means a couple of blowouts against decent teams outweigh a whole bunch of losses. 

Could be. Seems to explain some of the discrepancies.


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[RaceToTheTop 23,546]

Bracketville (top ranked bracketologist over the last five years) has IU as a 9 seed after yesterday’s games.  He has no Big Ten teams truly on the bubble...IU and Rutgers at 9, Purdue not in first 8 out.

[LIHoosier 24,991]

New matrix, IU drops to 1st 10 seed but is in a virtual tie with Oklahoma for last 9 seed. 28th of 36 at large teams.

[Magnanimous 4,399]

Just now, LIHoosier said:

New matrix, IU drops to 1st 10 seed but is in a virtual tie with Oklahoma for last 9 seed.

10 is better than 9 most years.