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Uspshoosier

Bracketology and Team Resumes

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4 hours ago, MikeRoberts said:


Curious to see if you think we are a 9 seed right now like many do.

I just can’t see a team that is 15-4 with 3 quad 1 wins and no bad losses only being a 9.



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From a NET perspective we are still paying a bit for the “cupcake row” start of the season. 10 of our 15 wins are against Quad 3 or 4 teams. Part of that is due to cupcakes but also because our BT schedule happened to already include Nebraska twice and NW.

HOWEVER... 10 of our last 12 games are quad 1 and the other 2 are quad 2. Really a tough/strong/“murderer row” finish.  We have the opportunity to  move up rapidly.

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From a NET perspective we are still paying a bit for the “cupcake row” start of the season. 10 of our 15 wins are against Quad 3 or 4 teams. Part of that is due to cupcakes but also because our BT schedule happened to already include Nebraska twice and NW.
HOWEVER... 10 of our last 12 games are quad 1 and the other 2 are quad 2. Really a tough/strong/“murderer row” finish.  We have the opportunity to  move up rapidly.

Some here have posted that we were like top 70 or something in the non-conference. I somehow find that hard to believe but if true that isn’t bad and shouldn’t be a drawback when evaluating us


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Some here have posted that we were like top 70 or something in the non-conference. I somehow find that hard to believe but if true that isn’t bad and shouldn’t be a drawback when evaluating us


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69 non conference as of today straight from IU’s team sheet


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3 hours ago, MikeRoberts said:


Some here have posted that we were like top 70 or something in the non-conference. I somehow find that hard to believe but if true that isn’t bad and shouldn’t be a drawback when evaluating us


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All I know is that, even at 15-4,  we are 43rd in the NET rankings (behind teams like OSU, UM, Minny and Purdue) and that 2/3 of our wins have been against quad 3 and 4 teams.  Maybe there is another reason we are only 43rd but it seems like the schedule (so far) to me.  What else could it be?

As previously stated though, the next 12 games are brutal (10 quad 1 and 2 quad 2) and we will rise quickly with a decent number of wins.

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All I know is that, even at 15-4,  we are 43rd in the NET rankings (behind teams like OSU, UM, Minny and Purdue) and that 2/3 of our wins have been against quad 3 and 4 teams.  Maybe there is another reason we are only 43rd but it seems like the schedule (so far) to me.  What else could it be?
As previously stated though, the next 12 games are brutal (10 quad 1 and 2 quad 2) and we will rise quickly with a decent number of wins.

Some of it is when IU has won they weren’t efficient and basically won ugly. NET factors in offensive and defensive efficiency as part of its algorithm. Each game I’m guessing predictive efficiency numbers are calculated and in most of the games IU hasn’t exceeded those


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12 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:


Some of it is when IU has won they weren’t efficient and basically won ugly. NET factors in offensive and defensive efficiency as part of its algorithm. Each game I’m guessing predictive efficiency numbers are calculated and in most of the games IU hasn’t exceeded those


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Figuring in offensive and defensive efficiency should only be considered in models that are meant to be predictive of future events and not reflective of a team's accomplishments.  IMO, seeding is meant to reward results, not measure potential.  Winning by 20 one game and losing by 2 should not be rewarded the same as winning two games by 9 points each assuming the opponents were similar in the two sets of games.  While the overall efficiency numbers will look similar and may strongly predict that the teams are equal in ability, they do not reflect the simplest of facts......that it is better to go 2-0 than 1-1.

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Figuring in offensive and defensive efficiency should only be considered in models that are meant to be predictive of future events and not reflective of a team's accomplishments.  IMO, seeding is meant to reward results, not measure potential.  Winning by 20 one game and losing by 2 should not be rewarded the same as winning two games by 9 points each assuming the opponents were similar in the two sets of games.  While the overall efficiency numbers will look similar and may strongly predict that the teams are equal in ability, they do not reflect the simplest of facts......that it is better to go 2-0 than 1-1.

Agreed. It would be nice to know the formula to see how much efficiency is weighted. Right now it seems pretty high. It’s years like this not just because of IU. More so teams like a PU that ends up creating a need to adjust the formula.


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Where things stand as of today
 
Here is the bad news. The Hoosiers quest for the number 1 overall seed or even a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament took a bit of hit with the loss today. With 11 remaining game games 9 Quad 1 and 2 Quad 2 games the Hoosiers will probably have to win out to have a chance
 
Good news is even with the loss to Maryland the Hoosiers have put themselves in excellent position to earn an at-large bid and avoid the bubble.
 
With 11 game’s left the Hoosiers number are
Quad 1 Quad 2 Quad 3 4
3-5 2-0 5-0 5-0
 
Non con Sos Overall
62 52
 
Projected Sos-top 15
 
I have them projected as a 7 seed as of today.
Not part of the selection process but my eye test says they are a ncaa tournament team. Can they find a way to break a losing streak if one happens. Last years team couldn’t find a way to stop the bleeding.
4 more wins and I am confident that IU would make the tournament but honestly if IU only got 4 more wins the rest of the year then something went wrong because this team is better then that
 
Plenty of winnable games in front of this team.
 
 
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I agree regarding the idea that 4 more wins may indicate something is broken. To many wins out there for us and too many games overall left for us to only get 4 and feel good.

I do think the team is generally playing much more competitively the last few weeks and I hope that translates into more than 4 wins.

Today would have been really nice.


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As we move into February a number you will want to pay attention to for teams that are trying to earn an at-large bid is 4 games over .500. While the committee doesn’t have this as a set criteria, history has shown that if you are not at least 4 games over .500 then you are not getting a bid. Most bracketologist won’t even put a team in their projections if they are not over the 4 games. Wisky was 12-8 before last night and they have a tournament quality resume to be included in people’s projections however they lost last night and fell to 12-9 so in some

they will completely fall out of the projections until they get back to 4 games over. B1G teams on the bubble like Wisky, Minny, Purdue and Michigan are currently under 4 games.

 

 

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On 1/26/2020 at 5:02 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Where things stand as of today

 

Here is the bad news. The Hoosiers quest for the number 1 overall seed or even a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament took a bit of hit with the loss today. With 11 remaining game games 9 Quad 1 and 2 Quad 2 games the Hoosiers will probably have to win out to have a chance

 

Good news is even with the loss to Maryland the Hoosiers have put themselves in excellent position to earn an at-large bid and avoid the bubble.

 

With 11 game’s left the Hoosiers number are

Quad 1 Quad 2 Quad 3 4

3-5 2-0 5-0 5-0

 

Non con Sos Overall

62 52

 

Projected Sos-top 15

 

I have them projected as a 7 seed as of today.

Not part of the selection process but my eye test says they are a ncaa tournament team. Can they find a way to break a losing streak if one happens. Last years team couldn’t find a way to stop the bleeding.

4 more wins and I am confident that IU would make the tournament but honestly if IU only got 4 more wins the rest of the year then something went wrong because this team is better then that

 

Plenty of winnable games in front of this team.

 

 

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If feel like this is even more evidence that 4 more wins get us in. Even if we assume we win the "worst" of those 4 opportunities, that would be 5 quad 1 wins and ZERO quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. No chance we get left out in that case. I understand some teams may move enough from now to the end of the season that those numbers aren't absolute, though. I still think we find at least 5 more wins and I agree that only 4 is not ideal simply for momentum reasons. If we only win 4, here's hoping we can get at least 2 in the BTT to build some momentum toward the dance. 

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Apparently how you play n conference doesn’t really matter that much according to ESPN’s bracketologist. They have IU today as an 8-seed, but Ohio St. also as an 8-seed and Michigan at a 9-seed.

Rutgers only one seed line higher than Ohio St. at a 7-seed.

So the difference between being 15-5 (6-3 in B1G) and 11-8 (2-6 in B1G) is only 2 seed lines? 

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Apparently how you play n conference doesn’t really matter that much according to ESPN’s bracketologist. They have IU today as an 8-seed, but Ohio St. also as an 8-seed and Michigan at a 9-seed.
Rutgers only one seed line higher than Ohio St. at a 7-seed.
So the difference between being 15-5 (6-3 in B1G) and 11-8 (2-6 in B1G) is only 2 seed lines? 

That is correct. Committee doesn’t look at a teams conference record they look at their entire body of work. Conference record isn’t on team sheet. It’s been that way for a long time



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After looking over team sheets for a couple days if I did a full s-curve of at-larges teams( minus the top team from each conference that would get the auto-bid) I have IU 18 out of the 36 which good for a 7th seed (3rd 7th seed) as of now


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Example of overall NET ranking used as a sorting tool for me this year. Arizona has a net ranking of 10. Sounds good right? That should make them a 3 or 4 seed you would think.
When you look at their team sheet and compare it to the other teams around them you see that is not the case.
Arizona
Net- 10
Q1-(1-4) Colorado(17)
Q2-(3-2)
Q3-4(9-0)
Sos
4
Non con sos
14
0 road wins as of today

Even with an overall NET of 10 I have Zona in the 7-8 range


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I know trying to make sense of Lunardi's projections is an exercise in futility, but I'd love to know how we went from a 6 to an 8 after beating MSU and losing by a point to Maryland while Purdue went from a 12 to a 10 after getting drilled by Illinois and beating unranked Wisconsin. 

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I know trying to make sense of Lunardi's projections is an exercise in futility, but I'd love to know how we went from a 6 to an 8 after beating MSU and losing by a point to Maryland while Purdue went from a 12 to a 10 after getting drilled by Illinois and beating unranked Wisconsin. 

Lunardi never had IU as a 6. That was Palm. Lunardi had IU as an 9. But like you said hard to make sense sometimes from day to day


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