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CrossboneIU22

2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

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Heck of a starting 5
 
 
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Lol.

A kid that can’t make a shot anywhere on the court.

2 super streaky shooters. One that can finish and one that gets pushed around all over the court.

One that plays like an NBA all star for 3 or 4 minutes but more often makes boneheaded plays that most middle school coaches would bench you for.

Then Rabby.

I realize it’s their dream but man, sometimes people are delusional.

I realize this isn’t a popular take each and every year but to me it’s just crazy.


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Lol.

A kid that can’t make a shot anywhere on the court.

2 super streaky shooters. One that can finish and one that gets pushed around all over the court.

One that plays like an NBA all star for 3 or 4 minutes but more often makes boneheaded plays that most middle school coaches would bench you for.

Then Rabby.

I realize it’s their dream but man, sometimes people are delusional.

I realize this isn’t a popular take each and every year but to me it’s just crazy.


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Rabby just wants to ball!


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8 hours ago, Hornsby said:

Sounds nice but i still think we were the worst on threes in the league. I thought people wanted a pure shooter. I simply dont think they can feel good about next year without adding shooters. What if one if those guys gets hurt? What if hunter doesnt play?

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None of the guys we are looking at are pure shooters. We were terrible at 3’s last year because Romeo and Juwan. They were 2 of the worst % 3 pt shooters. Romeo has the highest attempts of 3’s and Juwan was 4th in attempts. Those two killed our % as a team. The wrong guys were taking the open shots. If the 3 above were taking the shots, it’s a different story. 

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4 hours ago, Feathery said:

None of the guys we are looking at are pure shooters. We were terrible at 3’s last year because Romeo and Juwan. They were 2 of the worst % 3 pt shooters. Romeo has the highest attempts of 3’s and Juwan was 4th in attempts. Those two killed our % as a team. The wrong guys were taking the open shots. If the 3 above were taking the shots, it’s a different story. 

All players who attempted at least one three-pointer in 2018-2019 (games - makes/attempts per game):

Vijay Blackmon .500 (7 games - 0.1-0.3)

Devonte Green .410 (28 games - 1.7/4.2)

Al Durham .348 (34 games - 1.2/3.4)

Rob Phinissee .310 (32 games - 0.8/2.7)

Evan Fitzner .309 (31 games - 0.5/1.8)

Juwan Morgan .295 (35 games - 0.7/2.5)

Romeo Langford .272 (32 games - 1.1/3.9)

Demezi Anderson .233 (21 games - 0.3/1.4)

Justin Smith .219 (35 games - 0.2/0.9)

Zach McRoberts .211 (26 games - 0.2/0.7)

 

Excluding Vijay Blackmon and Demezi Anderson:

Three highest volume shooters (in order) - Devonte Green, Romeo Langford, and Al Durham = .347

Three next three highest volume shooters (in order) - Rob Phinisee, Juwan Morgan, and Evan Fitzner = .286

Three best shooters statistically (in order) - Devonte Green, Al Durham, Rob Phinisee = .358

Three worst shooters statistically (in order) - Zach McRobers, Justin Smith, Romeo Langford = .273 (Demezi shot more per game than Zach McRoberts or Justin Smith)

*NOTE:  The three highest volume three-point shooters were not the most optimal three, but their combined percentage wasn't much lower than the three best three-point shooters. My point in saying that is the best case for last year would have been Devonte Green and Al Durham taking all the threes, as the third best three-point shooter's percentage (Rob Phinisee's) wasn't much better than Juwan Morgan's - Juwan was 26 for 88 and Rob was 27 for 87):

 

The two best three point shooters (perhaps the only two respectable three-point shooters?):

Devonte Green and Al Durham = .382

* if Indiana shot that well as a team, then it would have been very respectable)

 

The two noted above as ruining the team percentage:

Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan = .281

As compared to:

Romeo Langford and Rob Phinisee = .287

 

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3 minutes ago, ray said:

All players who attempted at least one three pointer in 2018-2019 (games - makes/attempts per game):

Vijay Blackmon .500 (7 games - 0.1-0.3)

Devonte Green .410 (28 games - 1.7/4.2)

Al Durham .348 (34 games - 1.2/3.4)

Rob Phinissee .310 (32 games - 0.8/2.7)

Evan Fitzner .309 (31 games - 0.5/1.8)

Juwan Morgan .295 (35 games - 0.7/2.5)

Romeo Langford .272 (32 games - 1.1/3.9)

Demezi Anderson .233 (21 games - 0.3/1.4)

Justin Smith .219 (35 games - 0.2/0.9)

Zach McRoberts .211 (26 games - 0.2/0.7)

 

Excluding Vijay Blackmon and Demezi Anderson:

Three highest volume shooters (in order) - Devonte Green, Romeo Langford, and Al Durham = .347

Three next three highest volume shooters (in order) - Rob Phinisee, Juwan Morgan, and Evan Fitzner = .286

Three best shooters statistically (in order) - Devonte Green, Al Durham, Rob Phinisee = .358

Three worst shooters statistically (in order) - Zach McRobers, Justin Smith, Romeo Langford = .273 (Demezi shot more per game than Zach McRoberts or Justin Smith)

*NOTE:  The three highest volume shooters were not the most optimal three, but their combined percentage wasn't much lower than the three best three point shooters. My point in saying that is the best case for last year would have been Devonte Green and Al Durham taking all the threes (as Rob Phinisee's percentage wasn't much better than Juwan Morgan's - Juwan was 26 for 88 and Rob was 27 for 87):

 

The two best three point shooters (perhaps the only two respectable three-point shooters?):

Devonte Green and Al Durham = .382

* if Indiana shot that well as a team, then it would have been very respectable)

 

The two noted above as ruining the team percentage:

Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan = .281

As compared to:

Romeo Langford and Rob Phinisee = .287

 

This is bad stats. You can’t just average 2 players stats without accounting for attempts. I’d break it down more but currently holding a toddler

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12 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

This is bad stats. You can’t just average 2 players stats without accounting for attempts. I’d break it down more but currently holding a toddler

I did account for attempts (on a per game basis), so I don't know what you're talking about.  Best of luck finding more accuracy with your math once the toddler can be freed from your arms.  

I'm busy too, or I would run the numbers differently to find the overall attempts and makes per player, but for general purposes this will suffice.  I ran the numbers by a per game basis, which regardless if it meets your expectations, it's still not "bad stats".

I'm not usually one to get crappy, but your first line is "this is bad stats".  It's not.

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If the whole pretext is the wrong players were shooting the 3s you can't just combine two with our most prolific shooter. Juwan and Morgan with Romeo in this case. It diminishes difference between Juwan and Rob. Your arbitrarily weighting to make the impact less severe. To try and hide the fact that a sub 30% shouldn't be shooting more than 1 attempt a game  

Our offense was completely broken because who was taking our 3 pointers. Look at Virginia. They only had 3 players at or around 40% but because those guys took over  70 percent of their 3s. Probably over 80 if you remove garbage time. Their offense was one of the most efficient in the country. 

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If the whole pretext is the wrong players were shooting the 3s you can't just combine two with our most prolific shooter. Juwan and Morgan with Romeo in this case. It diminishes difference between Juwan and Rob. Your arbitrarily weighting to make the impact less severe. To try and hide the fact that a sub 30% shouldn't be shooting more than 1 attempt a game  
Our offense was completely broken because who was taking our 3 pointers. Look at Virginia. They only had 3 players at or around 40% but because those guys took over  70 percent of their 3s. Probably over 80 if you remove garbage time. Their offense was one of the most efficient in the country. 

Rob and Juwan's stats were basically the same. Rob made 1 more 3 on 1 less attempt. There's technically a difference, but the impact is meaningless. Rob was a bad 3 point shooter. I expect him to get better


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Just now, Free Jurkin! said:


Rob and Juwan's stats were basically the same. Rob made 1 more 3 on 1 less attempt. There's technically a difference, but the impact is meaningless. Rob was a bad 3 point shooter. I expect him to get better


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I wouldn’t call 1.5% difference basically the same. Besides his non-concussion numbers are better. 

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I wouldn’t call 1.5% difference basically the same. Besides his non-concussion numbers are better. 

1 3 pointer over the course of 30 games is just statistical noise. His non-concussion numbers were about 30 shots, so that's not enough to really make a judgment on his shooting. Al was also shooting really well early in the season and his performance came back as the season went along. We really have no idea how much the concussion affected him. It's a convenient excuse for poorer play, but it's just as likely that he wore down as a freshman facing the toughest competition he's seen so far.

That said, I'm not worried about him. Playing PG in the big 10 as a freshman is hard, so not shocking that shooting suffered. Yogi was a bad shooter his first year too.


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2 hours ago, Free Jurkin! said:


Rob and Juwan's stats were basically the same. Rob made 1 more 3 on 1 less attempt. There's technically a difference, but the impact is meaningless. Rob was a bad 3 point shooter. I expect him to get better


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Exactly.  Thank you.

First of all, and contrary to Brass Cannon's assumptions, I was not bringing out "arbitrary stats" to prove the wrong two players were shooting the three (that was someone else's argument and the "pretext" for my stat findings).  Instead, I pulled up real stats.  My point was merely to say we only had two above average three-point shooters...and the stats don't lie. 

Secondly, I could have given numerous two and three player combinations.  However, I didn't want to take the time because I'm busy too...and I felt a couple examples using Indiana's three best and three worst shooters as well as those players who shot the most by volume, coupled with a few other examples (to compare Romeo and Juwan shooting too often to Romeo and Rob shooting too often...could have used Evan or almost anyone, but used Rob because he was Indiana's third best shooter and it still would have been subpar) would be sufficient in proving my point that it wasn't two players shooting poorly...rather, it was the entire team, with the exception of two players.  Brass Cannon can mix and match players however he likes and he'll come up with the same results...we had two players who shot the ball well behind the line.  It wasn't me who said the wrong players shot the ball too often...I merely pointed out that the entire team was a poor three-point shooting team.  And, if the post I replied to suggests we want only good shooters shooting from deep, then I've given the only two decent options on last year's roster.

Lastly, Free Jurkin, I expect Rob to improve as well. 

My stats weren't arbitrary and I used them to prove my point.  The stats are in the books and the truth is Indiana only had two players who shot the ball well from deep.  I agree with the original post that Romeo and Juwan shot it too much, but I believe the entire team relied too heavily on the three when it was apparent Indiana wasn't a good three-point shooting team.

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3 minutes ago, ray said:

If we're talking about interest rates on a home mortgage or stock market returns, then I agree. 

When we're talking about Juwan shot 26/88 and Rob shot 27/87, then I disagree.

You can disagree all you want that’s not how statistics work

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You can disagree all you want that’s not how statistics work

If Juwan had also shot 27-87 instead of 26-88, would that have had any impact on the season or changed the way anybody defended IU? A difference that small is as likely to be explained by luck as by skill

If you removed all of Juwan's attempts and just doubled Rob's numbers, we would have scored 3 extra points over 35 games. That's immaterial


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11 minutes ago, Free Jurkin! said:


If Juwan had also shot 27-87 instead of 26-88, would that have had any impact on the season or changed the way anybody defended IU? A difference that small is as likely to be explained by luck as by skill

If you removed all of Juwan's attempts and just doubled Rob's numbers, we would have scored 3 extra points over 35 games. That's immaterial


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3 points is not immaterial. Games are won or lost by that many all the time. 

And using Rob as an example is flawed. When healthy he was shooting a lot better than 1.5% better than Juwan yet, Juwan was still right up there with him on attempts. 

Coaches a lot of time look at Points per 100 possessions. A 1.5% increase in shooting 3s is a big deal on that metric. 

 

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58 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

3 points is not immaterial. Games are won or lost by that many all the time. 

And using Rob as an example is flawed. When healthy he was shooting a lot better than 1.5% better than Juwan yet, Juwan was still right up there with him on attempts. 

Coaches a lot of time look at Points per 100 possessions. A 1.5% increase in shooting 3s is a big deal on that metric. 

 

I used many examples beyond Rob, but regardless, it's not flawed.  Rob played the games and took the shots.  The stats aren't flawed. We're talking about stats in the record books, not what if's.  If anything is flawed in this argument, then it's your attempt to erase some of Rob Phinisee's misses because he was hurt and had to come back from an injury.  I think he'll shoot better next year, but there's no taking away the shots he missed.

My point was there were only two reliable three-point shooters on last year's team.  They shot a combined 88-232...or 37.9%.  The "rest" of the team (Rob Phinisee, Evan Fitzner, Juwan Morgan, Romeo Langford, and Justin Smith) shot a combined 111-387...or 28.6%.  I broke down different combinations earlier to prove that there were only two decent three-point shooters.

 

And three points in one game can change a lot, but we're talking about three points over an entire season of 35 games.

 

Using your metric mentioned above), and this assumes the player shoots a 3-pointer in every possession for 100 possessions (which neither even shot 100 3's for the entire season):

Rob Phinisee - 31 made 3-pointers = 93 points

Juwan Morgan - 29.5 made 3-pointers = 88.5 points

That's a difference of 4.5 points in 100 attempts, which neither even reached (less than half of a point per game, assuming they actually shot 100 threes).

BUT...the season is over and the shots have already been taken, so the real difference is 3 points divided by 35 games (0.08 points per game).  Even if you want to consider the swing of Juwan missing one additional three pointer, that's still only 6 points OR (0.17 points per game).  And my initial argument wasn't even about how Rob Phinisee's shooting should be compared to Juwan Morgan's.  My initial argument was that beyond Al Durham (40-115) and Devonte Green (48-117), no one else shot well (111-387).

 

Yes, you're right we could argue all day.  1.5% means a lot if we consider a compounding effect, but the numbers are static.  The shots have already been taken.  The results are in. 

And I agree with the original poster that Juwan and Romeo took too many threes, but with the exception of two players, the same could be said for the remainder of the team.

 

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