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ccgeneral

#IUMS - 2018 B1G Tournament Champs!

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Let me explain a few things.

There is only 1 no. 1 seed for soccer in NCAA Tourney and that is almost definitely going to Wake since they beat us head to head to open season. However there is no difference between the 1,2,3 and 4 seed as all of those seeds carry home field till the college cup (3 home wins required) and a first round bye. We are virtually guaranteed a coveted top 4 seed since we have the no. 2 RPI (behind Wake) and 2 top 10 road wins at UNC and ND and those are the teams right behind us fighting for those seeds. I would not test it losing tomorrow but assuming we get by NW (which is harder than it sounds) I would say a top 4 seed is guaranteed even if we lose next week to Maryland or MSU in Indy as that would be a loss on a neutral field to another tourney team. 

The exact format for the tourney is 48 teams, 16 seeded teams which get a bye and 32 unseeded teams who play in the first round for right to face a seeded team on road in second round. There is no re-seeding in tourney so if IU gets a 2 seed lets say which is most likely we would be paired with 2 random unseeded teams and the winner would come to Armstrong Stadium in 2nd round. If we win we would face the 15 seed (or one of the 2 unseeded teams if they upset the 15) in Sweet 16. Elite 8 we would probably host the 7 seed barring an upset. Don't be surprised if that's UK again as NCAA loves rematches and rivalries. I would be quite all right with re-matching them at home as we were off that night in Lexington and we are more talented overall and UK is certainly a better match up than the alternative which would be an ACC team like ND who possesses far more talent than UK. Dorsey and Rennicks would be back after our one 2nd rd game which we should be able to win without them as we will face a mediocre unseeded team ranked in the 30's or 40's who is going to posses a weakness somewhere.

Here is last years bracket to see how the exact seeding works:

https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/soccer-men/d1/2017

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Lets stay here and now and look at NW. I expect a win but don't be surprised if it takes a late winner like the first time we played them as NW tends to park 6 to 7 guys in front of the goal ('Parking The Bus'). We will dominate possession and probably out shoot them something like 25-5 with NW doing very little on offense but not sure we score for a while. This is a game where having Dorsey and Rennicks possession skills and speed would be huge as in the first game they were the reason we won. We scored early because Rennicks ran hurdles around their parked bus for an early Goal and than we got a late winner when Dorsey ran to the back post and tapped in a Spencer Glass pass who somehow made a perfect delivery while falling out of bounds on the goal line.

The good news is we are very deep and posses 17 starter quality players so the loss is less than it would be for any other team and I would still say we are a top 5 team in country without them. Glass will slide into Dorsey's spot most likely. Glass does not posses Dorsey's speed but is better at creating for others. Rennick's spot will most likely be taken at forward by AJ Palazzolo. This hurts more than having Glass replace Dorsey. Palo is great at scoring when other's create for him (which hopefully Glass and Trevor Swartz can do) but cannot create his own shot and does not posses Rennick's speed. Overall our ability to score on counters is very much compromised without Dorsey and Rennicks. However, our other weapon is scoring on set pieces of off fouls and corners and that is exactly the same with or without them as Gutman or Palo can tap or head one in off a corner or pass from Glass or Swartz.

More good news is with NW playing today they will be exhausted. I actually think we have a better chance to win the National Championship than the Big Ten Tourney with Dorsey and Rennicks back for Sweet 16. Like I said I think we get by NW with a late winner but will be somewhat surprised if we can get past MSU or Maryland in Semi's who are easily the second and third best teams in the conference (don't pay attention to seeding). Both posses elite defenses and multiple pro's and I would expect a 0-0 game for most of it with either PK's or them getting a late winner (I will explain more about MSU or Maryland later if we get by NW).

 

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21 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Screwed us out of the USI replay Friday night and now this.  

It sucks for most (unless you pay for the full time subscription like me) but better than playing in a down pour and they have a live game on BTN at 2pm. I am sure the players appreciate this move.

Next weekend will be on BTN (and they use a turf field at Grand Park so they will play at scheduled time regardless of weather) and NCAA Tourney games are required to be streamed for free per NCAA rules so you can watch those on BTN2go without a subscription than College Cup is on ESPNU.

In other words after today one way or another everyone will be able to watch from here on out for free or on cable. 

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1 hour ago, ccgeneral said:

Welp, there goes our TV time. BS.

@IndianaMSOC: Today's Big Ten Tournament match vs. Northwestern at Armstrong Stadium has been moved to 2 PM ET! The match will be streamed live on BTN Plus.

 

Can't wait to see what 'B1G Football in 60' replaced this game. F*** BTN

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More good news: You do NOT need a BTN2go subscription today it appears. You will be able to sign in with your cable provider like you do if you go online and watch a live BTN game. Basically as long as you have a cable subscription you can watch the BTN2go broadcast today for free and often times from your home computer once you click your provider and it automatically logs you in. 

NCAA tourney games will work just by clicking the game with no log in or authentication required at all as I said above.

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