The math of getting into the NCAA tourney

[BottomLine 677]

It is easy to throw around speculation about the chances of the Hoosiers making the field for the NCAA this year, but the facts are that the chances have almost evaporated for this year, thanks to two crushing home losses to lowly rated teams.  But for those who hold out hope, let's look at the math of the selection process.

As everyone knows there are 68 teams selected for the final field.  Twenty of those spots will be taken up by the minor majors.  Those are one selection conferences and if the regular season champion loses in the conference tourney - well that is just too bad.  The minor majors are American East, Atlantic South, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, CAA, CUSA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, SunBelt, Wac.  68-20 = 48

Next we have the mid-majors.  The mid-major conferences (with this year's expected best teams) are:  American (Wichita State, Cincy, SMU, Houston); MAC (Buffalo, Ball St, Ohio, W Mich, E Mich, C Mich); MVC (N Iowa, Loyola Chi, Missouri St, Valpo); Mountain West (Nevada, SD St, UNLV, Fresno St); WCC (Gonzaga, St Mary's, BYU, San Diego); Atlantic 10 (RI, VCU, St Bonaventure).  Each conference is guaranteed a spot but, unlike the minor majors, a conference champion might still be selected if they lose the conference tourney.  Rarely 3 or more may be selected.  It varies by year but let's say that the six mid-majors get 9 sports.  48-9 = 39

That brings us to the major conferences which are ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC.  There are 75 teams competing in those six conferences and they are competing for approximately 39 spots.  On the average each of those conferences should get 6.5 spots.  In stronger years they get more and in weaker years they get less.  Since the Big Ten is down this year we can probably expect 5 or 6, but 7 is not an impossibility.  It depends on the relative strength of the other major conferences.

So what does it take to get in?  The best clue is probably given us by the Pomeroy Ratings which are available back to 2002.  Not only does it provide us with yearly ranking but it also provides us with NCAA seeds for each year.  The most certain way to get into the field is to be ranked in the top 40.  Over the last 16 years 92.8% of the teams that were rated in the top 40 were selected.  Taking into account the teams that was ineligible and the number is probably closer to 95%.  How low can you go?  After the top 40 selections become more hit and miss.  The average LAST major team over the 16 years was 54.9, with the lowest being 71 in 2002 and the highest being 39 in 2004.  Over the last five years the bottom major teams were 56-62-50-64-60.  In 12 of the 16 years the last major seed was between 9 and 12.  After the loss to Ft Wayne Indiana is rated as #99 by Pomeroy.

[DChoosier 7,054]

Please allow me to provide the crib notes version of your 5 paragraph post.  It is:

No way in hell we are getting into the tourney.

[BottomLine 677]

36 minutes ago, DChoosier said:

Please allow me to provide the crib notes version of your 5 paragraph post.  It is:

No way in hell we are getting into the tourney.

I count it as slim and none.  We would need to go on a big winning streak in the conference and finish in the top 4, probably not going to happen.  Or, win the Big Ten tourney.  Yeah and pigs can fly too.  Don't think we are even make the picked over rejects tournament this year.

[Bailey7878 2,506]

Please allow me to provide the crib notes version of your 5 paragraph post.  It is:
No way in hell we are getting into the tourney.

Winn8ng the big ten tourney is the only change and we've never won it. Maybe our luck changes with a new coach.

Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk

[DChoosier 7,054]

2 minutes ago, Bailey7878 said:

Winn8ng the big ten tourney is the only change and we've never won it. Maybe our luck changes with a new coach.

Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, who knows...maybe we will win the BT tourney.  My wife married me so I guess anything is possible.

[HoosierAloha 29,887]

This team needs to worry about the next game and then the next game after that. Baby steps here.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

[dbmhoosier 851]

Have to go 12-6 in conference most likely to get in at this point.  But just for reference,  how many B1G teams have ever won 11 conference games and missed the dance?  I'm guessing not many.

[mark1981 1,334]

The Notre Dame win opened me up to the possibility of making the dance.  Then Monday night happened.....

 

[LamarCheeks 16,817]

Channeling my inner Jim Mora ... 

NCAA tournament? Don't talk about that -- NCAA tourney?! You kidding me? NCAA tourney? I just hope we can win another game! Another game! 

[OliviaPope40 6,295]

Anybody care to come up with the mathematical equation for this.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 80,939]

11 minutes ago, OliviaPope40 said:

Anybody care to come up with the mathematical equation for this.

0 + 0 = 0

[jmsgws 2,030]

11 minutes ago, OliviaPope40 said:

Anybody care to come up with the mathematical equation for this.

 

∂L/∂qi−d/dt(∂L/∂qi)=0

 

[OliviaPope40 6,295]

Ha

Have fun with this.

[cthomas 5,917]

10 minutes ago, OliviaPope40 said:

Ha

Have fun with this.

I've read enough about quantum physics to know that the quantum world is even stranger than IU basketball....and that I don't understand either one!

[bigrod 2,784]

16 minutes ago, cthomas said:

I've read enough about quantum physics to know that the quantum world is even stranger than IU basketball....and that I don't understand either one!

Just need to figure out how to make a player spontaneously guard two positions at the same time.

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Just need to figure out how to make a player spontaneously guard two positions at the same time.

Let’s just have them figure out the one they’re currently supposed to guard.


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app

[Bailey7878 2,506]

Have to go 12-6 in conference most likely to get in at this point.  But just for reference,  how many B1G teams have ever won 11 conference games and missed the dance?  I'm guessing not many.

Iu did when Mike Davis was coach. Similar situation with a brutal non conference where we went like 7-5. Plus the big ten isn't very good so quality wins will be tough to get.

Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk

[Lebowski 1,843]

Yeah, at this point NIT might not even be an option.  Tennessee Tech this Thursday might even cause problems.  

[dbmhoosier 851]

1 hour ago, Bailey7878 said:

Iu did when Mike Davis was coach. Similar situation with a brutal non conference where we went like 7-5. Plus the big ten isn't very good so quality wins will be tough to get.

Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk
 

We only won 10 B1G games that season and would've made the dance had we beaten Minny in the B1G tourney.

[Bailey7878 2,506]

We only won 10 B1G games that season and would've made the dance had we beaten Minny in the B1G tourney.

10-6 which would normally get you in without question.

Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk