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Lebowski

Senior Member
  • Content Count

    253
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About Lebowski

  • Rank
    5-Star Recruit

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  • Website URL
    https://twitter.com/JeffLebowski812

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    812
  • Interests
    Bowling

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  1. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I hear ya. The more that are tested the more accurate a count of confirmed cases and a completely better handle of the entire situation at all levels in all directions. Hindsight will be 2020 when this is all done but one of the valuable lessons we are learning in real time is the importance of testing early and often.
  2. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Keep in mind confirmed cases is next to meaningless because most can't get tested. As you illustrate here considering counts of deaths is more directionally accurate and telling than confirmed cases as this thing progresses. Let's hope that 'bit of good news', which is actually really big giant good news, is not an anomaly. Thanks for sharing.
  3. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Can we just take it easy, man. This aggression will not stand. We're all in this together. As I've said for some time now, we're getting ready to hit mid April. Lots of lives have and are going to be turned upside down. Buckle up.
  4. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    That's great y'all are talking about politics but COVID-19 doesn't give a poop. Science doesn't care whoever is in control to make the leadership decisions. Science will always expose leadership whether that be good or bad. Always. The entire world is dealing with infection rates that health care systems are struggling to manage. The value of early testing is abundantly clear. Hopefully leadership will understand this and implement something for the future. What's unfortunate, to get back on the political train, is that depending on which team you cheer for will either dismantle or reassemble whatever decision is decided to implement.
  5. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Thanks for sharing. Like I've been saying. Mid April, we'll get a better understanding of the situation.
  6. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Maybe. But he also wrote this in the same blog: "All my concerns in the first post turned out to be true. All of the math I laid out was true."
  7. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The Dude abides.
  8. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    His primary analysis isn't focusing on confirmed cases. That's a faux number. He calls it 'close to meaningless' due to lack of testing. He's focusing on the future forecast (hospitalizations) based on the lack of testing being applied right now. Declining rate of today's confirmed cases shouldn't be the focus and an absolutely worthless number right now for this type of math. (Especially in state's that have been relaxed with lockdowns.) It will potentially later down the road however. Focusing on confirmed cases is the actual problem. That's what he's trying to say here. He mentioned the count of deaths will be 'more directionally accurate and telling' as this thing keeps going. And I believe that. He's also very generous with what number to use on how to apply the exponential math. And most importantly he's fully admitted all of his calculations are assumed. However, by applying the exponential math to this virus he's able to conceptually infer his assumptions. His initial thought of applying 10x to confirmed cases was actually too low based on the current growth. That much is true. In my opinion right now this very second the key number to watch is the amount of testing that is taking place.
  9. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    While that is true, the virus itself is an 'exponential virus'. So that means if I'm in a town of 3600 or a city of 3.6 million the exponential growth of the spread is the same percentage regardless. The percentages drastically change depending on types of lock down in your state or town etc. etc. Here's an effective visual to demonstrate. Here's a read from a Software CEO out of Oregon that so far has been spot on with the numbers by applying math. I encourage everyone to read it. https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/why-there-are-more-people-with-covid-in-your-town-than-you-think-3fa81406bb75
  10. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    That's a perfect world of applying the exponential equation however there are plenty of states that have not taken the proper measures for the math to work they way you are thinking. Unfortunately, the United States isn't on the same page from state to state. Mid April should show us where we are as a country regarding the spread. China was/is able to apply that math you speak of because well, it's China. They have the authority to apply draconian measures. What we do know right now is that the global spread is on a massive trajectory at an alarming pace. Yesterday we hit the 5th 100k confirmed cases in a matter of 2 days. As I type this right now we're likely to hit the 6th 100k in 1 day. Currently sitting at 565k confirmed cases.
  11. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    The US just passed China with total cases. Buckle up.
  12. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Thanks for sharing. So it looks like NY is testing more than the rest of the country. That might explain the count discrepancy.
  13. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    I'm not sure that'll be the case. I think any town regardless of size is susceptible based on how it spreads. People go to grocery stores. People got to gas stations. People go to parks. It just takes a location like these examples and it spreads like wildfire. Does anyone know the test rate NY has over all other states in the country? It'll interesting to see if that's a factor.
  14. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    In just two days the world is going to hit the 5th 100k case. We hit 400k cases on 3/24 and today we're going to hit 500k easy. This thing is on a massive trajectory at a speed like nothing we've seen in our lifetime. And the US is just getting started. Please take this very seriously folks and if you know someone in the front lines at a hospital thank them. They're gonna need some love and encouragement. They're our soldiers in this battle.
  15. Lebowski

    Coronavirus and Its Impact

    Honestly, I'll gladly eat crow on any of my predictive thoughts/opinions. Gladly.
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