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BottomLine

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Everything posted by BottomLine

  1. We aren't even to the end of December and you are willing to give up half of the games that are still ahead. NO, will not go for that. Roll the dice and let's see how this one plays out.
  2. BottomLine

    IUBB vs Nebraska 12/13 8 pm BTN

    Is the sky falling or something? Really enjoyed the game last night and let's give some credit to Fred Hoiberg for putting together an excellent game plan that his team followed. I wouldn't expect less from Hoiberg. He is an excellent coach. On offense they spread IU out and made us play one-on-one defense. Five out and none in means that our bigs have to come outside and guard on the perimeter and we got exposed. In addition it takes away our help defense since it pulls players back inside and leaves open shooters on the outside. The move took Brunk and Davis out of the game and negated one of our biggest advantages. Nebraska also ran some clear-outs where we were forced to play one-on-one. Folks that is how you beat a pack line defense. They forced IU to defend the outside instead of the inside. That is how you turn a plus (our size) into a negative and is the product of good coaching. On defense, Nebraska tried to take away our inside game by giving us all the outside shots was could want and more. We choked on that diet until the second half when we started to go inside and Jackson-Davis and Smith started to take over. Simply put, Nebraska had too little size and too many fouls to stop us inside. That is why I never thought the game was in doubt. Credit MIller for correcting our offense on the fly. Credit Fred Hoiberg for an excellent job of coaching last night. He turned the game into a chess match and made it close as a result. Unfortunately for Nebraska they did not have enough pieces to win the game, but they certainly game us a game that we will remember. The Big 10 is full of good coaches and they all look at film. last year it didn't take them long to figure out that Indiana had Langford and Morgan and not much else. Game plan to stop those two and you stop IU. You can bet that those coaches will now be looking at film of last night's game and the Wisconsin game for how to stop the Hoosiers. This is where MIller earns those big bucks that we are paying him. This is his team that he has assembled and I'm sure he is aware of exactly what happened last night. The weight now falls on his shoulders to find a way to fix the problems. I'm not sure exactly what that may be (They aren't paying me those big bucks to fix anything). There has to be a solution. We aren't just going to throw the season away. My fear is that there won't be a solution coming because Coach Miller can be pretty inflexible at times. My feeling is that if something isn't working, fix it! I like Coach MIller and I like the team he has assembled. I desperately want the Hoosier to do well. But, if you are going to evaluate the job Coach Miller has done at IU, this is where you begin. Don't give me excuses. I'm only interested in results. I hope we can find a way.
  3. BottomLine

    College Bball Thread

    Wisconsin just reverted to form. The caught us flat footed in Madison but they aren't a very good team this year.
  4. Wisconsin just reverted to form and lost to Rutgers.
  5. Was wondering at the time why Jackson-Davis took a seat for so long in the second half. I would have thought he would be on the floor more. Then this morning it hit me. IU is struggling through a scoring drought in the second half and points are really hard to find. Then IU puts the ball up and Jackson-Davis get called for offensive goal tending on a ball that was already inside the hoop and on the way down, thus taking two points off the board. It was an incredible bone headed play. Moments later Jackson-Davis is on the pine. Think Miller might have been sending a message? I don't care who you are, get your head in the game kid! Anyone else notice this?
  6. BottomLine

    Prediction League (Game 11 - Nebraska 12/13/19)

    I must be overthinking things. Think I'll try putting in my guess early instead of late and see if it makes a difference. Good points for Nebraska. We have a common opponent, S Dakota St. We won by 14 (64-50). Nebraska won by 17 (90-73). Nebraska is shooting the 3 at a 32.7% clip. Now for the Nebraska bad stuff. We are averaging 7 points more per game and IU is 12.5 points per game better on defense. Nebraska is projected to be 0-20 in the Big10 this year. They are not very good at guarding the 3-point line and gave up 13 3s to Creighton, 11 to George Mason, and 9 to Southern. They don't rebound well. They are 0-1 against Q1 competition and 0-1 against Q2, and they have lost twice to Q4 teams. In short they look worse than Wisconsin, but not by much. The Hoosier offense has stalled in the last two games and this would be a good place to get back on track, especially with Phinisee expected to see more time. Plus we should welcome playing on our home court again. Hoosiers 85 - Cornhuskers 68
  7. BottomLine

    Prediction League (Game 10 - UCONN 12/10/19)

    Hope you are right. Got the same numbers.
  8. BottomLine

    Prediction League (Game 10 - UCONN 12/10/19)

    I stuck my neck out on the Wisconsin game and got it chopped. The Badgers beat us like an old rug. I swore that the Wisconsin jinx in Madison was ready to end and our boys had some mental toughness. We didn't. Beat on the board by a smaller team! Only forces 4 turnovers! Allowed Wisconsin to look like the best shooting team in the country! Brother, what a mess! Now where do I go? What you have done in the past is usually the best indicator of what you are going to do in the present, at least until it doesn't. See Wisconsin. Now where are our boy going to be mentally? Do we fight back or roll over and play dead? When will Phinisee finally reappear? Plenty of big questions to answer against Connecticut, which on paper is a tougher team that Wisconsin. Connecticut shoots the 3-ball well and in volume and on paper they have a better 3-point defense than IU. They rebound well and force turnovers. What a recipe for disaster, if our A team doesn't show up with some grit and determination we can be run out of the gym on national TV. I have NO confidence in this game. There are just too many variables. Vegas has it with an o/u of 142 and an implied final score of 72.5 to 70. I've almost talked myself into picking against the Hoosiers, but I'll ride with them one more time before I start picking against them, but I can't see going out on a limb. Feeling conservative about this game. IU 75 Connecticut 70
  9. Wisconsin! I HATE Wisconsin. The thing to remember is that what happened 20-15-10 or 5 years ago has no impact on the game being played on Saturday. Really? Really! The physical aspect of games in the past have no impact on the game played at present. On the other hand the mental aspect can have an impact. What is this year's team thinking. Have we been snake-bit so often in Madison that when crunch time comes we will expect it to happen again? I'm thinking not, but we will just have to see. I'm thinking that this team can be pretty tough minded. On paper this is IU's game to lose despite the fact that Vegas has it as pick 'em with an o/u of 128.5. I'm not buying that. I know Wisky has a reputation for playing defense but 128.5 is way too low. IU has been over in 6 of 8 games with much higher o/us than that. Does Wisconsin have the firepower to keep up in a much higher scoring game? I don't think so. Their offensive average for the year is 66.5. In their three games with major competition they are 64.7. That fits in nicely with Indiana's defensive average of 63.6. The simple fact is that Wisconsin is a 60 point range team and needs to hold Indiana to the lower 60's or 50's to win. They aren't good enough to do that. Florida State, which probably plays much tougher defense than this group from Wisconsin, held IU to 80. Meanwhile North Carolina State pounded on Wisconsin. Which is the tougher team NC State or Fla St? I'm thinking Fla St. On the other hand, if the referees swallow their whistles that could be a problem. Florida States problem was that they couldn't guard without fouling. But everyone has had that problem with IU this year. Wisconsin's effective field goal percentage in their last three games has been 41.0, 35.8, 42.0. Their turnover rates in their last three have been 23.3, 22.4, and 15.4. Those numbers can get you beat by even a good mid-major. Is home cooking going to fix that? Where are the points going to come from? Vegas has this at 128.5 o/u and an implied score of 64.5 to 64. Hard to picture Wisconsin scoring more points than Florida State. So I'll shave 4 points to get Wisconsin's score. On the other hand I don't think Wisconsin can apply as much pressure as Florida State, so I'll take the same score for the Hoosiers just to be a bit conservative. And there you go. How did you come up with your numbers? IU - 80 Wisconsin- 60 Let's break the losing streak in a BIG way. Go Hoosiers.
  10. BottomLine

    ACC-Big 10 Challenge

    Can't believe on a basketball crazy forum like this nobody has anything to say about the challenge. With three games to go the B10 leads 6-5 in a series where the ACC is getting exposed! The victory margins by the B10 have been +18, +18, +14, +16, *29, and +21. Only one game in the challenge has been decided by less than 10 points (Illinois came from 27 down to lose by 2). The last three games (Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State) could all be B10 wins. The success can't hurt the SOS argument from this point forward. Love seeing what the rest of the conference looks like.
  11. BottomLine

    ACC-Big 10 Challenge

    I'll take a look over there.
  12. Having fun with this league thus far, but I feel like I'm at the racetrack today. I've spent all afternoon doping out the horses and scrutinizing the past performances and I have the feeling like I'm going to lose to some little old lady that is picking jockeys wearing pink silks and riding gray horses. OK so here goes. The o/u in Vegas for this one is 140 and I have a feeling like that could be about right. Florida State isn't a high powered offensive team and we are due to come back to reality with some stiffer competition. FSUs O/D averages are 76 and 59.9 so they look like they try to beat you be stopping you from scoring. Their O/D averages for the four power 5 opponents they have played are 61.75 and 57.75. They are looking for a grind it out game. Their average o/u is 135.9. They are very big and their guards like to put pressure on the ball. Can our guards hold up to that pressure? On the other hand IU has averages of 86.4 and 63.6 but we have played no power 5 opponents. Out o/u is 150.0. If Rob Phinisee were healthy and starting tonight I would comfortably go with the Hoosiers. He isn't. I'm afraid that FSU is going to clog up the middle with their big guys and turn us into a jump shooting team, which we don't do well. On the other hand the game is in Bloomington and the students should be back from Thanksgiving vacation. We are going to need that sixth man tonight. So, enough with the blah blah. With an o/u in Vegas of 140 and with IU favored, the implied score is 71-69 IU, I'll ride with the Hoosiers until they fall. I'll pick them the cover again and forget about the o/u. IU 75 FSU 65 .
  13. BottomLine

    Food For Thought

    I love digging up obscure facts - especially on a dull night. Here goes. Total starts during IU career: Smith (46), Durham (44), Phinisee (29), Green (24), Davis (22), Brunk (18). Franklin (5), Jackson-Davis (5). Of course Brunk includes his time at Butler. Anyone else surprised that in four years Green has only started 24 games? Last night's result Texas A& M (56) - Troy (52). What? Did anyone see that coming? ELEVEN schools in the Big Ten have a lower 3-point percentage than Indiana! I know still early but still. The Big Tens record presently is 39-14. Cup Cake season, but how did we manage to lose 14 times? 56 teams are still undefeated - including the Hoosiers.
  14. BottomLine

    Food For Thought

    Crazy numbers: After 7 games this year we are 7-0 but, of course, we haven't played any one. We are averaging 86.4 points/game and we are giving up 63.6/game. Last year at this time we were 5-2. the two losses were to Arkansas by 1 on the road and by 21 to Duke on the road. We had a good 23 point win over Marquette and 4 wins over cupcakes Chicago St, Montana St, Texas Arlington and UC-Davis. At that point we were averaging 82.1 points/game and giving up 64.6. Are the numbers really any better than last year, considering the competition? In a roller-coaster year we followed the Duke loss by winning 7 in a row to bring us to 12-2 and a #21 ranking in the AP poll. That was followed by a loss in 12 of the next 13 games before we righted ourselves and ended the regular season with 4 straight wins. By the end of the year we had a scoring average of 71.5 and a defensive average of 67.8 Really hope for a win on Tuesday but folks the jury is still out.
  15. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    So everybody is going to temporarily drop the S Dakota St results and get back one of the other scores that was dropped. No big deal, right? Well, yes, because when we start picking losers the S Dakota St score is going to come back and haunt us and we will be GLAD to have it. What a monstrosity of a game. Am I worried? Not in the slightest. I don't PLAN to pick any losers, choke cough choke cough wheeze. Good luck to everybody with the Florida State game. I have a headache already.
  16. This has the possibility of being a trap game. Big heads from a 6-0 start and the first major test coming next week, can't blame the guys for looking a bit ahead. Hope they tend to business as usual. Vegas has the over/under at 149. They are starting to wise up out there, especially after we have been over in 5 of 6. With IU favored by 17.5 that would make the implied final score something like 83.5 to 66.5. IU has also covered in 5 of 6. South Dakota State has played 3 major teams and lost all three on the road by an average of 81-67. I think IU has a better defense than any of those teams as well as a better offense, so I'm going over on the o/u and over on the spread. Looks like there are a lot of predictors here that are in agreement so there isn't much wiggle room this game. IU 90 SDst 65
  17. BottomLine

    Food For Thought

    6 games into the season and our 3-point defense is still a point of contention. Here is the season 3-point percentage for each of our opponents and the 3-point percentage for the game with IU Western Illinois (41.1 - 29.2) Portland State (29.9 - 50.0) North Alabama (32.0 - 50.0) Troy (27.1 - 20.0) Princeton (28.7 - 22.2) Louisiana Tech (31.3 - 40.0) We have allowed over 40% 3-point shooting or better in 3 of our 6 games, and that includes our biggest tests Portland State and Louisiana Tech. We still won all six but there are plenty of good 3-point shooters still to come this year and plenty of work still to do. Three of six at 40 or over seems like a lot to me, especially against high volume teams. Are we that bad or is it just a case of random streaky shooting from our opponents? Speaking of streaks - there are still 27 undefeated teams (IU included)
  18. BottomLine

    Food For Thought

    The HOOSIERS are averaging 90.2 points/game. That ranks second of the 353 division I teams. After last year we were wondering if we would be able to score this year. Don't tell me about the easy schedule. Other teams play a series of cupcakes in November and they aren't scoring over 90 points/game. A drop off is coming but how much? For those who have forgotten how dominate IU basketball have been over the years. This is our 120th season and the lifetime record now stands at 1839-1053 for 63.6% wins. Then again some people only ask "what have you done for me recently?" Point taken, but the bar is always going to be high for the Hoosiers. The season record for the first six IU victims this year is 15-22. Subtract the IU loss and they are 15-16. The present record for the teams that are ahead 82-27 and not one single opponent has a losing record. Despite leading IU in minutes played and scoring, team captain Al Durham still is being left off many fan's ideal IU starting lineup. That is despite 45.5% shooting from 3-point range and 19-21 from the foul line. And, IU has the reputation as having one of the most knowledgeable fan bases. Not going to happen guys. Finally Joey Brunk led IU in shots against Louisiana Tech. Joey Brunk?
  19. This one takes a little more thought than the first five games. Vegas has the o/u at 140 and the implied final score at 76-65 IU. I can't take those numbers. Louisiana Tech has been winning on defense as they give up 58.8/game. IU has one of the most efficient offenses in the country with 90.6/game. Something has to give and it will be Louisiana Tech. Their three tallest starters are 6-7, 6-5 and 6-3. The 6-7 guy gets Brunk, the 6-5 guy gets Jackson-Davis, and the 6-3 guy gets Smith and we have more big strong guys on the bench. Can't see how they are going to stop our big guys and will probably get into foul trouble trying. We should be able to stop any LaTech inside game and unless they are sizzling from the outside IU will walk away with this. I'll take the over and figure IU will beat the spread. IU 87 LaTech 63
  20. BottomLine

    Food For Thought

    Just some thoughts concerning Louisiana Tech: They start 4 seniors and a junior. They are not a big team. Starters are 6-7, 6-5, 6-3. 6-2, 5-11. Not much size on the bench either. The top 3 subs are 5-11 and 6-3 guards and a 6-6 freshman. Will they be able to keep us off the boards? Probably not. Will our bigs be able to chase and guard? Let's see. Despite starting 4 guards they don't shoot the 3-ball well. Only shooting 29.6% for the year but that includes a 3-22 effort against Mississippi Valley State. With that said they will probably explode against us. Isn't that the way it usually goes? Doubt they have much of a post game so we better guard that line. They beat North Alabama at home by 21. We beat North Alabama at home by 26. I don't like the feel of that. The Vegas over/under for the game is 140 and IU opened as an 11 point favorite. That means that the Las Vegas implied score for the game is 76-65. We will probably be Louisiana Tech's toughest opponent on their schedule this year. So, with the food for thought out of the way, let's play some ball. Go Hoosiers
  21. BottomLine

    User name

    Not my usual stomping ground but I was through the Union Building a million times and passed there plenty.
  22. BottomLine

    Food For Thought

    111-147 = 75.5% Keep it up baby!
  23. BottomLine

    User name

    Looks like I'm late to the party but I've enjoyed reading the origin of everyone's handles. Mine takes a bit of explaining. In addition to being a history teacher and basketball coach I spent 21 years as a sportswriter for the Daily Herald, the largest suburban daily in the Chicago area. My beat was horse racing and in addition to news and columns I did a daily graded handicap for the horses running in the Chicago area. For the layman that means that I would list the horses running in the races in predicted order of finish and did comments on each horse. Along with the graded handicap I also had a bankroll in the paper where I bet the horses every day in print and kept a running tally of either my success or failure. The bankroll in the paper ran every day under the banner "Bottom Line". I'm on a lot of forums and, whenever I don't use my real name, I use BottomLine. For anyone from the NW suburbs of Chicago that is familiar with the Daily Herald my real name is Ray Hallett. To Old Fart - I'm a '69 IU grad. Chances are we probably passed each other on campus more than once back in the day.
  24. BottomLine

    Prediction League RESULTS Thread

    Not much difference now, but when we get to the part of the season where picking the correct winner is important, look out. The difference between picking the winner and not picking the winner is 50 points. Wow! May be getting a couple of dropped scores back pretty quickly. No Hoosiers!
  25. BottomLine

    IUBB vs Princeton 11/20 @ 7 pm BTN

    Let's hold off on the evaluation of De'Ron and Joey. When you play teams that are undersized and out classed they have little choice as to how they are going to play us. They are going to try to press, run and shoot the 3, or some combination of those three. De'Ron and Joey are a bit slower afoot and don't fit that kind of game. When we play opponents that are bigger and stronger and want to play a half court game those big bodies will be more important. If they are going to rise, that will be the time to evaluate.
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