What to Watch For - Keys vs Wake Forest

When Indiana (3-0) plays Wake Forest (2-1) tonight in the opening round of the Maui Invitational, it will be the Hoosiers first of three games in three straight days. The prestigious tournament will be a good test of the Hoosier’s stamina and skill, as they will likely play some of the best teams in the country.

In its sixth appearance at this tournament, IU stands a fairly good shot of winning the whole thing, but it won’t be easy. The road starts with Wake Forest and will likely include Vanderbilt as well as Kansas. Fans have seen lights out shooting to this point of the season and an overall explosive offense, but can they withstand elite competition in such close succession? The answer will unfold over the next few days.

Last season, Wake Forest did not make the post season. This year, it is off to a 2-1 start and is coming off a loss to Richmond at home by nine points. Danny Manning’s second Wake squad is missing two of its biggest contributors in Codi Miller-McIntyre and Cornelius Hudson. Wake has relied on inside scoring from Devin Thomas and John Collins, which has been good enough for the 46^th adjusted offense according to KenPom rankings. Their perimeter shooting holds that number back a bit and their defense leaves a lot to be desired, as opponents are averaging 82 points against them through three games. Couple that with the fact that Indiana has no trouble scoring and Wake Forest could be in big trouble on Monday evening.

There is a long list of reasons that the general college basketball world may doubt Indiana this year. A strong Maui showing will go a long way in quelling that uncertainty. To beat Wake Forest, Indiana will have to excel in the following areas:

1) Take Advantage of a Young Backcourt

What is a strength for Indiana may be the cause of Wake’s downfall in this matchup. Without two of their best guards, the Deacons have turned to freshman Bryant Crawford for their primary ball-handling duties. They also play a former walk-on, Trent VanHorn, for about 27 minutes per game. Manning has not yet instilled the same defensive prowess in Winston-Salem that he did while at Tulsa and that will haunt his team against Indiana. There should be plenty of opportunities for IU to drive and kick- the bread and butter of their offense.

2) Can Bielfeldt/Hartman/Williams Add Post Defense?

If Wake Forest is going to win, it will be because they successfully exploit Indiana’s lack of height. 7’1” Doral Moore and 6’10” John Collins make up a front court that dwarfs Indiana’s as IU doesn’t have a player besides Thomas Bryant over 6’8”. If the perimeter defense is up to snuff, the Deacons may not get the chance to go down low too much. You have to think an All-American like Yogi Ferrell can get the best of a player like Crawford, who only has three college games under his belt. Whoever is playing the power forward position is going to have to bring an imposing physical presence. Bryant, as good as he is, can’t hold down the paint for 40 minutes by himself. If he gets into foul trouble, it could be a long day for the Hoosiers.

3) Will the Guards Rebound Effectively?

Coach Tom Crean has mentioned this as a point of emphasis for this year. It would be particularly useful in this game when Indiana will need help rebounding thanks to their height disadvantage. If they limit second chance points for Wake’s big men, the Deacons are going to struggle to score. The IU backcourt has an opportunity to really help their team by doing more against inferior counterparts and playing bigger than they are versus a taller team. The guards will need the practice because Vanderbilt and archrival Purdue present the same matchup problem. If they struggle to effectively rebound and dominate a much weaker backcourt in this game, the season’s expectations may have to be tempered.