The History of Mallory

I’m truly not one to cry for a coach’s firing whenever things aren’t going well. I promise I’m not. I understand that Indiana’s defense isn’t loaded with elite talent. I understand that the fast paced Indiana offense doesn’t lend itself to defensive success. But, I also understand there are other defenses doing more with much less talent. There are also defenses that rank in the top 10 of the nation despite playing alongside more prolific offenses than that of Indiana's.

Enough with the excuses and debates though. Let's just answer the question we are all really asking ourselves: can Doug Mallory successfully lead a defense? Here is your answer.

Football Background:

(photo credit: Bentley Historical Library)

Doug Mallory’s football pedigree is not to be disputed. He is the son of the last truly successful Indiana football coach, was a co-captain for the legendary Bo Schembechler at Michigan, and has been around the game his entire life. However, having football in your blood isn't necessarily an indicator of coaching success.

Rise to Defensive Coordinator:

(photo credit: Tim Sharp AP)

Mallory’s relationship to Les Miles goes way back. The two were at Michigan together in the mid 80’s. When Miles became the head coach at Oklahoma State, he had Mallory alongside him as a defensive backs coach from 2001-2004. When Miles got the job he currently holds at LSU, he brought Mallory along with him as a defensive back coach, and the two (along with other assistants of course) won a national championship in 2007. After the national championship season, he promoted Doug Mallory and another assistant to “co-defensive coordinator”. That’s where our analysis begins.

Is Mallory a "Good" Coach?

I don't think many would dispute that one sign of "good" coach is that his teams show improvement. Game to game and year to year. If you can agree to that, then what follows should close the door on any debate as to whether or not Doug Mallory is a "good" coach.

From 2002-2007, LSU was a defensive powerhouse. Just as all Big Ten fans know Penn State as “Linebacker U”, LSU became known as “Defensive U” for their dominance during that time period. Year-in and year-out, the boys from Baton Rouge were ranked near the top of the country in virtually every defensive category.

That all changed, in 2008 when Mallory was promoted to co-defensive coordinator.

Under Mallory, the team that had just won the national championship fell apart defensively. The Tigers were ranked an unheard of 81^st in the country in passing defense and 66^th in points allowed. It was LSU’s worst defensive year of the decade, and it was the first time in the proud history of the program that the defense allowed 50 points or more in multiple games.

The conversation around the LSU program then was identical to the one in Bloomington right now:

LSU nation seems to be blaming the LSU defensive struggles among one of four potential sources: poor scheming...poor execution by young players, poor practices and game time adjustments...poor player personnel assignments"

-Brian Bertrand, BleacherReport Correspondent, Nov. 2, 2008

Sound familiar? If you've been following Indiana football this year, it's hauntingly similar to the reasons given for the poor performance of the Hoosier defense (you can read the whole article here). After a season of excuses in Baton Rouge, the condemning fact was that the defense got worse as the season progressed.

Despite their 30-year history together, Les Miles was unable to deny the fact that Doug Mallory had to be let go.

(photo credit: lubbockonline)

He replaced Mallory with a man named John Chavis. After ranking 66^th under Mallory, LSU immediately improved 40 spots the next year and finished ranked 26^th in the NCAA. The Tigers continued to improve after Mallory's departure as they were ranked 12^th in total defense in the second year and then 2^nd in the country in year three post-Mallory.

This basic trend of defenses becoming worse under Mallory and then improving after his departure is not limited to his time at LSU. The graph below demonstrates that every defense Mallory has taken over as defensive coordinator has experienced a decrease in their total defensive ranking. The vertical axis shows the team's percent defensive rank with 100 representing the best defense in the country and 0 representing the worst. In the two places Mallory has already left (LSU and New Mexico) you can see a clear improvement after his departure. No matter what the reasons or excuses behind the experiences, the statistics clearly say that defenses get worse under Mallory.

A good defensive coordinator produces a good defense, or at the very least, an improving defense. A good offensive coach produces a good offense, or at the very least an improving one. Chavis undeniably improved the LSU defense each year after Mallory. Kevin Wilson and Seth Littrell have likewise proved themselves as “good” coaches. The Hoosier offense was ranked 83^rd in the country in year one, 34^th in year two, and is currently 10^th in year three. That is "good" coaching.

The Trend Continues:

After being replaced at LSU, Doug Mallory took over as defensive coordinator at New Mexico from 2009-2010. The Lobos were ranked a respectable 45^th in the country defensively the year before Mallory arrived. In Mallory's first year, the defense plummeted 55 spots down to 100th in the NCAA. In his second year, they fell all the way to 119^th meaning there was only one defense in the entire country worse than Mallory's, which is the exact position the 2013 Hoosiers are in right now.

There's also evidence from Malloy's coaching past that sheds some light on the Hoosiers helplessness at stopping the run. In the year before Mallory, the Lobos allowed just one opponent to rush for over 200 yards in a game. In Mallory’s first year, they allowed five opponents to rush for over 200 yards in a game. In Mallory’s second and final year, they allowed two opponents to rush for over 200 yards and four opponents to rush for over 300 yards per game. Here's the overall rushing defense data from New Mexico dating back to 2007. You can see the obvious increase in 2009 and the embarrassing increase that occurred in Mallory's second year with the program, 2010.

In Mallory's final year, the Lobos gave up an average of 469 yards per game and ranked 119^th out of 120 schools in the nation. These are just facts. In reality, these statistics are so concrete and without deviation, that one has to wonder what qualified him for the promotion to a Big Ten school in the first place.

Of course, the statistical trend has followed Mallory to Indiana. The chart below shows the seasonal progression of Mallory's defenses. Total yardage given up is organized from left (August) to right (November) by the time of season the yardage was given up. Linear trend lines were then applied to the data.

The only year a team showed slight improvement was in 2010 at New Mexico, but that's the same defense that finished ranked 119 out of 120 teams. Other than that slight deviation, no Doug Mallory defense has ever improved throughout the year. Virtually every one has gotten worse.

Conclusion:

I regret that this comes off as an attack on Coach Mallory, as I’m sure he’s a great person. However, while he continues to place blame on the players and supporters blame the Indiana offense, when emotions are stripped away the data is simple and indisputable: without exception every defense that Mallory has led has gotten progressively worse under his coaching and better after his departure. This year's defense isn't just the usual bad Indiana defense fans are used to. They are currently allowing an average of 582.5 yards per game in B1G play. The 2013 Indiana defense is on pace to finish the year as the statistically worst defense in the history of the Big Ten.

Doug Mallory was elevated to defensive coordinator by a friend. Even that friend knew after just one year it was a mistake. Since then, Mallory has shown no statistical evidence of being a capable coordinator. Kevin Wilson and Fred Glass are winners. They know Indiana can be a winning program. If they want that to come to fruition they can’t allow the blame to be placed on the talent of the players or the pace of the offense anymore. They have to make the same emotionally difficult, but statistically obvious decision Les Miles made.

Mallory has to go.