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Analysis: Is Kevin Wilson on the hot seat?

IndyHutch

By IndyHutch

    • I keep reading comments that people believe that Indiana football coach Kevin Wilson is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the Hoosiers. No winning seasons in the first four and a dismal Big Ten record have IU fans a little bit restless. Here's my take on the topic.

I keep hearing the sentiment that the 2015 season is a big year for Kevin Wilson.

IU football needs to win and it needs to win now.

More to the point, Indiana needs to go to a bowl game or Wilson may not be leading the Hoosiers in 2016.

While I understand the frustrations of Indiana football fans and the bowl-game-or-bust mentality, I’m just not in that do-or-die camp just yet when it comes to IU’s fifth-year coach.

Yes, Wilson’s 14-34 overall record in four seasons at IU is certainly not something to get excited about. Even worse is the Big Ten record in that span of 6-26.

Should the IU alumni and its fans expect more? Absolutely. But having expectations and seeing immediate results are often two different things.

I also think that IU athletic director Fred Glass is a strong believer that Wilson is the right guy for the job. He thinks Wilson can get the Hoosiers over the top.

All of that aside, I also get how Indiana fans are so tired of being told, ‘Be patient, be patient.’ Patience only goes so far. I remember a poster that was sold at a local convenience store when I was growing up that showed two vultures sitting in a tree looking down on a herd of animals below. One vulture is saying to the other, “Patience my ass, I want to kill something.’’

And yes, Indiana fans are tired of being patient when it comes to football.

The unfortunate reality is that it’s not going to be easy. Sure, IU’s recruiting classes of late have been some of the school’s best in many years. But that’s almost not a fair comparison. The reality there is that some of those old classes were so bad that it’s almost surprising that Indiana was able to win any games at all.

Recent classes have been better but it’s not like Indiana is pulling in a large number of four and five star recruits. The norm is a bunch of three’s and an occasional four-star sprinkled in.

IU also has an incredibly small margin of error. As we talked about with the J-Shun Harris situation, IU can survive a couple of player losses like that but it can’t lose its top skill players and have a chance to compete in the Eastern Division of the Big Ten. One big loss like Nate Sudfeld a year ago was simply too much for the Hoosiers to overcome.

The other problem for Indiana is the fact that it plays in a division that also includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. In order for Indiana to get to a bowl other than something like the Polian Weedeater Bowl (although that is still better than no bowl), IU will have to get to the point where it can beat one or two of those four teams on a somewhat consistent basis.

If not, that margin for error shrinks. Now you go back to that formula where you must win all of your non-conference games and then find a way to win a couple of Big Ten games. And that will soon get more difficult when the Big Ten goes to a schedule where teams will play nine conference and three non-conference games.

So I guess my take on Wilson is pretty simple. As long as Indiana doesn’t do a complete belly flop this year (something that could always force an athletic director’s hand), I think Wilson will likely be back beyond the 2015 season.

That may not be the news that some Indiana fans want to hear but I think it’s the truth. The problem with making a change is that when you do so you often have to wait another three or four years before the new coach gets his own players and has a chance to be successful.

Wilson, in his fifth year, now has his own players and Indiana fans simply have to hope that those players are good enough to get Indiana to just its second bowl game in more than 20 years.

@IndySportsHutch

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IndyHutch

In a common scenario where a recruit is choosing between 2 schools and where coaching staff is important to him, which coach has a major leg up on landing the recruit?

 

A) Coach with a contract long enough that you would be coached by him during your college career

B) Coach with a contract for 2 years with a decision likely coming after 1 year

 

You're going to have a hard time convincing me that recruiting for Coach B is going to go very well.

 

I completely agree. Two years left on a deal is at the very least a red flag for being suspicious. Someone will be curious why he hasn't been extended.

HoosierReb01 reacted to this

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IndyHutch

That's a terrible argument. If my aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. She doesn't. So who cares. Coulda, woulda, shoulda's are not sound basis for any argument.

 

Can't we leave your aunt out of this.

Naturalhoosier, RBB89, mamasa and 1 other reacted to this

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IndyHutch

Lot gets the point across! :)

 

But if your aunt had a penis, and she was still considered your aunt, wouldn't that mean you would have two uncles married to each other?

 

The reality is that I use that line all the time in arguments but I'm just trying to have some fun here.

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Hovadipo

But if your aunt had a penis, and she was still considered your aunt, wouldn't that mean you would have two uncles married to each other?

The reality is that I use that line all the time in arguments but I'm just trying to have some fun here.


"I think one of my uncles is ga...eh nevermind..."

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Brass Cannon
Fine 2 years is a red flag. But it's ludicrous to give a guy another 3 years or so for eking out 1 bowl game. Unless there is a very program friendly buyout clause.

I'm sorry but you don't give a coach an extension at the first little sign of success.

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IndyHutch

Fine 2 years is a red flag. But it's ludicrous to give a guy another 3 years or so for eking out 1 bowl game. Unless there is a very program friendly buyout clause.

I'm sorry but you don't give a coach an extension at the first little sign of success.


But the flip side is starting over again with a new coach. I know that has been way too often an IU thing but at some point coaches need to be given a longer chance.

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LIHoosier

I'm sorry but you don't give a coach an extension at the first little sign of success.

 

Glass would never do something like that.... :rolleyes:

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HoosierReb01

Fine 2 years is a red flag. But it's ludicrous to give a guy another 3 years or so for eking out 1 bowl game. Unless there is a very program friendly buyout clause.

I'm sorry but you don't give a coach an extension at the first little sign of success.

The thing is, you have to either give a real vote of confidence at that point, or you are admitting its time to move on. Yes, you either extend, or you move on.

Class of '66 Old Fart, IndyHutch and LIHoosier reacted to this

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IndyHutch

The thing is, you have to either give a real vote of confidence at that point, or you are admitting its time to move on. Yes, you either extend, or you move on.

 

Precisely.

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Class of '66 Old Fart

That's a terrible argument. If my aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. She doesn't. So who cares. Coulda, woulda, shoulda's are not sound basis for any argument.

 

So your aunt is Caitlyn Jenner?   :laugh:

johnsoniu, Dalton26, southsidehoosier and 1 other reacted to this

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Brass Cannon

The thing is, you have to either give a real vote of confidence at that point, or you are admitting its time to move on. Yes, you either extend, or you move on.

 

Well I really do think the point is moot because I firmly believe that we will underachieve this year. 

 

But how about this, extend him if we get a bowl game but only 2 years if he makes another bowl game then he gets a long one.  

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IndyHutch

Well I really do think the point is moot because I firmly believe that we will underachieve this year.

But how about this, extend him if we get a bowl game but only 2 years if he makes another bowl game then he gets a long one.


I just don't see it working that way. You don't give someone a half vote of confidence. Other programs will use that against IU in recruiting.
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Brass Cannon

I just don't see it working that way. You don't give someone a half vote of confidence. Other programs will use that against IU in recruiting.


We are the least successful team in college football history. If somebody is going to use negative recruiting on us that's plenty of ammo.

And how is 4 years a half vote. He has 3 years left now i guess that means he has a foot out the door already

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IndyHutch

We are the least successful team in college football history. If somebody is going to use negative recruiting on us that's plenty of ammo.

And how is 4 years a half vote. He has 3 years left now i guess that means he has a foot out the door already

All I'm saying is I have never known it to be done that way. It could change I suppose.

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HoosierReb01

Well I really do think the point is moot because I firmly believe that we will underachieve this year. 

 

But how about this, extend him if we get a bowl game but only 2 years if he makes another bowl game then he gets a long one.  

Most of the discussions on here moot, because we have incomplete knowledge and no control over what happens. As far as underachieving, I'll wait and see on that. Overall I'm as psyched as I've been in years about this season. 

 

But no, at the end of this season, its probably time either to commit to CKW, or part ways. That's Fred Glass's call and he may not agree with me at all, but I can't see not giving him, the team, recruits and fans a straight up answer. Then again, Fred is a lawyer, I believe....... :laugh:

mamasa, IU Hoosier41 and Naturalhoosier reacted to this

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Flash3
Yes and no. We haven't won but we've had the most exciting teams we've had in years. Wilson has also gotten the best recruiting classes Indiana has ever gotten. I don't Indiana had ever gotten a 4 star til Wilson got Sudfeld. But eventually there have to be results. There needs to be improvement shown on the defensive side especially. His situation is a tough one. Indiana is historically the worst college football program ever. So how good of a coach can we really get? Plus being in the B1G East with Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State... what coach wants to go up against that? We're not going to be able to just go hire Nick Saban and be title contenders after 3 years. We have to get a coach that can make it happen with 3 stars and a couple 4 stars to get us 3 conference wins a year along with 3 or 4 OOC wins.

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