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Analysis: Is Josh Newkirk a good fit for Indiana?


IndyHutch
  • Here is my take on Indiana's latest addition.

There was one thing you knew you could count on Sunday when it was announced that Josh Newkirk was headed to Indiana.

 

Instant analysis from the Indiana fan base.

 

Newkirk is not a 5-star recruit, he isn’t transferring in with crazy numbers and he didn’t come out of high school as a top 50 ranked kid.

 

And so the tone of the analysis was going to be predictable.

 

Tom Crean recruits another project. He probably won’t even be here by the time the 2016-17 season begins. What is Crean thinking this time? The two players he has brought in the last few weeks are players he could have gotten much later in the process. This isn’t Indiana basketball as I once knew it.

 

And on and on and on it goes.

 

So, to those of you out there singing that song: Thanks for at least being predictable.

 

I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on Josh Newkirk. I saw him play live one time in Assembly Hall against IU and he looked pretty good in that game. Now, did the Hoosiers make him look better than he really was? Not sure (but that was always a possibility last season). I have a pretty limited study sample here. But at the very least, I thought he looked like a player who could contribute at the Division I level.

 

Beyond that, you have to rely on statistics.

 

If you just look at the sophomore numbers that are being thrown around (5.9 points, 2.7 assists, 38 percent shooting from the field and 30 percent from 3-point range) you’re probably going to come away pretty underwhelmed.

 

I get that. What I don’t really know, however, is how much his injury impacted those numbers. We all know that Newkirk had microfracture surgery on his left knee May 6 and that his lateral meniscus was also repaired.

 

What I don’t seem to have a feel for is how much that injury impacted his sophomore numbers.

 

Here is what I do know. In his first 24 games last season, he played 17 minutes or more per game. But in seven of his last nine games, he played 12 minutes or less.

 

So something was obviously different. Was he injured and playing limited minutes because of that? Or was it a coach’s decision? I can’t seem to find anything that documents that.

 

And so that’s my first question. My next question is what kind of shooter is Newkirk? If you just take that one little slice of his shooting as a sophomore at Pitt last year, you come to the conclusion that he’s not a great shooter. Again, 38 percent from the field and 30 percent from 3-point range are not something to write home about.

 

But two things jump out to me there. First, he didn’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers so I’m not sure you think of him in that vein. He had 24 games a year ago where he attempted two 3-pointers or less.

 

The other thing, though, that makes me wonder about his shooting is that as a freshman at Pitt he shot 46.3 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from 3-point range. He made 62-of-134 shots from the field and 23-of-53 3-pointers. He had a game against North Carolina State as a freshman where he scored 20 points and was 5-of-5 from 3-point range.

 

The other thing about his freshman year was that he was really coming on at the end. In the last 10 games he averaged 19.5 minutes and 6.4 points per game. And then his first 24 games of his sophomore year, he played at least 17 minutes per game.

 

All of which makes me think that his knee may have been bothering him toward the end of last year. Or mysteriously, his level of play just slipped off and he wasn’t the player he had been to that point in his Pitt career.

 

I do know one thing and that’s he seemed to be a pretty capable point guard at Pitt. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.95 ranks as tied for sixth in program history. To me, that’s a significant statistic at the point guard position. You want someone who can lead the offense, distribute the ball and get your shooters in the right position to get shots.

 

I cannot say with certainty that Newkirk will ever be more than just a role player at Indiana. Again, the sample size is too small.

 

But I’m also not ready to write this off as a mistake in recruiting by Crean and his staff either.

 

There is simply too much that needs to happen both in terms of how he responds from his surgery and how he looks when he is able to play with his future IU teammates before we can really provide accurate analysis here.

 

I just think there are too many questions still to be answered.

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What are your concerns regarding his recovery from surgery? A big part of my job is dealing with people recovering from these kinds of surgeries (a confusing statement for everyone who knows what I do) and it's rare I see someone come back to be 100% afterward. They may heal completely, but they are always a little guarded. Any concerns there?

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What are your concerns regarding his recovery from surgery? A big part of my job is dealing with people recovering from these kinds of surgeries (a confusing statement for everyone who knows what I do) and it's rare I see someone come back to be 100% afterward. They may heal completely, but they are always a little guarded. Any concerns there?

 

I just think that everyone is different in how they respond. I saw a quote from Jamie Dixon, after Newkirk had surgery, where he said he expected him back for the 2015-16 season. Maybe that was just coach speak or maybe he was confident that the kid would be back and able to contribute. I don't know. I just remember a player like Maurice Creek for example. Different injuries but another example that everyone is different in their recovery.

 

I also think there is something about what you said about players being a little guarded post surgery. I just think that's human nature. Tentative might be a better word. The quicker they can get past that little mental barrier, I think, the quicker they have a chance to be all the way back. The good thing with Newkirk is that now he's going to have a full year more to rehab it and IU has great doctors and medical staff so that should be a big plus for him.

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I will say that his father's comments lead you to believe he will be ready day 1 of the 16-17 season. If he were a 5th yr transfer and able to play immediately, you could probably expect him back at some point mid-December given his recovery continued at a similar pace. Right now you would say he will be fully ready for the offseason next year. Add on he gets to watch and possibly practice some against Yogi and that can only help him. I just think, on a team that is going to need a lot of guard additions next year, it's hard to say adding a RS Junior that has proven he can play at the D1 level is a bad thing. You would rather hand the reigns to an unproven first year kid that you literally have no idea if he can handle it? If that kid is a talent like Alkins then maybe, but even then you at least have added quality depth.

 

Hard for me to see anything but positives with this add.

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Maybe a good idea is to talk to some of the IU players about him and see what they think about his skills. They probably have a better feel and can provide some better insight than a stat sheet. Or maybe a former AAU coach would probably has some knowledge about his injury and what type of impact it had on him last year. I have a lot of questions about him, his health, and how much he can contribute, and after reading the article I have to admit I feel like I still have all the same questions.

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Maybe a good idea is to talk to some of the IU players about him and see what they think about his skills. They probably have a better feel and can provide some better insight than a stat sheet. Or maybe a former AAU coach would probably has some knowledge about his injury and what type of impact it had on him last year. I have a lot of questions about him, his health, and how much he can contribute, and after reading the article I have to admit I feel like I still have all the same questions.

 If he's rehabbing for xxx months, it will be a while before IU players will know much more about him than what they remember from the ACC/Big Ten Challenge last year.

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I was just curious what they would say about their impressions from playing against him last year. Was he a little bit more than what they expected based on the scouting report, etc. I would be intrigued to hear the thoughts of what those who coached him or played against him. Or even some of the recruiting experts who ranked him pretty high out of high school. Like most, when I heard he was coming I sorta remembered him from the Pitt game and then looked up his stats at Pitt. Hoping to find out a little bit more about what this guy can do to help.

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If he's rehabbing for xxx months, it will be a while before IU players will know much more about him than what they remember from the ACC/Big Ten Challenge last year.


Awesome job Hutch, you always do a great job and keep it up. We got you on this ;)

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