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Analysis: What will it take for IU fans to call this a successful season?

IndyHutch

By IndyHutch

    • The jury is still out but it's a question that begs to be answered. What does IU have to do in the NCAA Tournament for this to be considered a successful season?

The question is a simple one. The answer, however, is more in the eye of the beholder.

 

In your opinion, what has to happen for the 2015-16 Indiana University basketball season to be remembered as a successful one?

 

As I see it, there are at least three scenarios that exist at the very least.

 

Let’s begin with the worst case scenario: If Indiana followed up its opening round B1G Tournament loss to Michigan with a first round exit at the hands of Chattanooga on Thursday, will it have been enough that IU was the outright Big Ten regular season champion and won the conference by two full games. In your mind, will that 25-8 record have been a successful season?

 

I’ve heard from some people who have told me they think that in and of itself has made this a successful season. Indiana had not won 15 games or more in the Big Ten is more than 20 years. And an outright Big Ten title is a big deal.

 

Myself, however, I cannot imagine thinking of this season in successful terms if it ended with a pair of first round tournament losses. I think with most people it would leave a sour taste in their mouths and just provide ammunition for fans to be upset about the direction of the program. I think we would be hearing a lot of noise from IU fans on Thursday night and Friday afternoon on the talk shows.

 

So let’s move on to scenario No. 2: If Indiana beat Chattanooga on Thursday but then lost to Kentucky on Saturday, would that be enough to make this season be considered a successful one by IU Nation?

 

Think about it. If that happened, as a No. 5 seed you would have won the game you were expected to win and would have lost the one that, at least seed-wise, you probably wouldn’t have been favored in. So you could probably make the case that a 26-8 finish was a successful season. Still, I don’t know if it would be from the standpoint of having your season end at the hands of a rival like Kentucky or what, but my guess is that most people still wouldn’t be satisfied with that result.

 

I think it was different in 2012 when IU lost to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. Kentucky was a 1 seed and had revenge from the Wat Shot on its minds. An IU hadn’t been to the Sweet Sixteen in several years so it was a new accomplishment. Now it would be another exit before you got to the Sweet Sixteen and I think that’s different.

 

Let’s talk about Scenario No. 3: You beat Chattanooga on Thursday and then knock off Kentucky on Saturday to advance to the Sweet Sixteen in Philadelphia. In the Sweet Sixteen you would likely play top-seeded North Carolina. If that was the case and IU lost at that point, would the season have been a success?

 

I know a lot of people are going to say that in order for this season to have been a success that the program needs to get at least one round beyond where it has in recent years. Twice since the 2011-12 season, IU has lost in the Sweet Sixteen so making it to the Elite Eight could be the Mendoza Line for many IU fans. At the same time, if you get to the Sweet Sixteen and knock off Kentucky along the way, I somehow have to think that this year has been a successful one.

 

Now if you get to the Sweet Sixteen and you’re facing a team other than North Carolina, that could change everything, too. But I still think if this team could get to the Sweet Sixteen it would have 27 wins, a Big Ten outright title, and a win over Kentucky along the way. That’s a pretty good year.

 

I’ve also heard people say that nothing short of a Final Four appearance is enough in their minds for this season to be successful. I think that’s asking a lot for a 5 seed especially when you consider what IU’s road could potentially be to get there. You could potentially have to beat Chattanooga, Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier to get there and while that would be an impressive feat, I think that may be asking a lot, too.

 

And then if you got there, there’s a good chance you would meet Michigan State in the national semifinals. But again, we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. Thursday’s matchup with Chattanooga could be one where IU has its hands completely full.

 

One thing in the back of the minds of IU fans this week is not to think too much about IU-Kentucky on Saturday. Remember what happened the last time you did that? You were thinking this time last week about IU-Purdue playing last Saturday and that didn’t end so well.

 

My question for you though is a simple one: As an IU fan, is this season already a success or does IU have to do more? And if it’s the latter, how much does IU have to do for the 2015-16 season to be considered a success?

 

I’m looking forward to your responses.

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Bittersince87
It's elite eight or nothing. Don't care if we're a five seed, this arguably Creans first or second best team in his tenure . If he can't get far with this talent than what's the point? I know local Indiana fans are happy with the big ten but nationally were viewed as a joke who's time of glory has passed. I'm tired of it and we need to set the bar higher than sweet sixteens .
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HumphreyIN

I love how fans and now media keep telling other fans to not get caught thinking about the UK game. We are fans! I can assure you that me being excited about the possible IU/UK game isn't going to effect the likelihood of it actually happening. 

 

With that being said, IMO, it has been a successful season to this point! They have won a B1G title and improved a ton as the season has progressed. But a first round exit would be tough to swallow. A sweet sixteen appearance would be a successful season in my eyes. 

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jmsgws

Can I add it depends on how we play...  I expect us to win the 1st game.  Losing this game would mean a bad season to me.

I think we can beat Kentucky, but losing does not automatically make it a bad season.  If we play well, and lose a close game, I will call it an OK season.  If we play badly,.....

Assuming we make it past Kentucky, I wouldn't call it a bad season no matter the result, but again it depends on the way we would play in the Sweet 16.  If we play well and lose, then I can still call it a good season.  If we play badly, it would go down to a MEHH season.  Neither good nor bad. 

The championship is great, winning the B1G by two games is a BIG deal.  However, tourney results also matter, and certainly the way we played in the BTT left a bad taste in my mouth.  The BTT tourney brought back all the doubts that were starting to wane. 

A good regular season is to be expected, Now we just need to make a splash during the psot season.

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IndyHutch

You're right about my IU-Kentucky advice. I should probably keep that to myself. I guess when I say it out loud it adds to my therapy though. But you're right, hope all you want and I can just say that I hope you get the matchup you want because that would be a ton of fun.

 

 

I love how fans and now media keep telling other fans to not get caught thinking about the UK game. We are fans! I can assure you that me being excited about the possible IU/UK game isn't going to effect the likelihood of it actually happening. 

 

With that being said, IMO, it has been a successful season to this point! They have won a B1G title and improved a ton as the season has progressed. But a first round exit would be tough to swallow. A sweet sixteen appearance would be a successful season in my eyes. 

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IndyHutch

Unfortunately seeding does matter and while I get the Elite Eight or bust to an extent, I think you have to be realistic, too. That said, I'm a believer that if we see:

 

1. Good Troy

2. 3-pointers falling

3. Better help side defense

 

This team is Elite Eight or beyond worthy.

 

So who knows, right?

 

It's elite eight or nothing. Don't care if we're a five seed, this arguably Creans first or second best team in his tenure . If he can't get far with this talent than what's the point? I know local Indiana fans are happy with the big ten but nationally were viewed as a joke who's time of glory has passed. I'm tired of it and we need to set the bar higher than sweet sixteens .

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IndyHutch

Good stuff sir. And probably spot on with how a lot of people feel. If they play well in the NCAA Tournament but run into the wrong matchup and lose I don't think that's a bad thing. But if they play down to the level of their competition and get beat or don't show up in a big game, that's something else. And I think we can all agree on the fact that the Michigan game has just added to the feeling of uncertainty heading into the NCAA Tournament.

 

So let's just hope Indiana plays like it did for most of January and February and see what happens.

 

 

Can I add it depends on how we play...  I expect us to win the 1st game.  Losing this game would mean a bad season to me.

I think we can beat Kentucky, but losing does not automatically make it a bad season.  If we play well, and lose a close game, I will call it an OK season.  If we play badly,.....

Assuming we make it past Kentucky, I wouldn't call it a bad season no matter the result, but again it depends on the way we would play in the Sweet 16.  If we play well and lose, then I can still call it a good season.  If we play badly, it would go down to a MEHH season.  Neither good nor bad. 

The championship is great, winning the B1G by two games is a BIG deal.  However, tourney results also matter, and certainly the way we played in the BTT left a bad taste in my mouth.  The BTT tourney brought back all the doubts that were starting to wane. 

A good regular season is to be expected, Now we just need to make a splash during the psot season.

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theriverpilot

I said elite eight before. After bracket, I'd say sweet sixteen. Beating UK would be huge.

Agreed.  And as much as I'd love to see Stony Brook knock off UK, I'd rather see IU be the team to end UK's season.

 

EDIT:  Now that I'm thinking about it, I think when IU is hitting on all cylinders (hitting 3s, D is in order) that they could end UNC's season as well.  This team has a high ceiling but a deep basement.

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Bittersince87

Unfortunately seeding does matter and while I get the Elite Eight or bust to an extent, I think you have to be realistic, too. That said, I'm a believer that if we see:

1. Good Troy
2. 3-pointers falling
3. Better help side defense

This team is Elite Eight or beyond worthy.

So who knows, right?

You can't argue this is at worst Coach Crean's second best team he's had. If he can't get passed the sweet sixteen then we to have some serious talks on type of program we are.

I think your basing it on simply this year but this should be cumulative decision . EIGHT years and we haven't touched the elite eight. That needs to factor in.
That being said I do believe we have the athletes to get us over the hump. We are a national university and we need to stop trying to put band aids on a season that should be expected to be more productive.
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jmsgws

You can't argue this is at worst Coach Crean's second best team he's had. If he can't get passed the sweet sixteen then we to have some serious talks on type of program we are.

I think your basing it on simply this year but this should be cumulative decision . EIGHT years and we haven't touched the elite eight. That needs to factor in.
That being said I do believe we have the athletes to get us over the hump. We are a national university and we need to stop trying to put band aids on a season that should be expected to be more productive.

I think you are mixing up THIS year's success or possibly  lack thereof, with keeping or firing Coach Crean. 

I agree with you that any discussion of Crean's job has to look at the totality of his work.  However, that wasn't the discussion.  The last eight years have nothing to do with this team, or this season. 

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Scooter D

I, like a lot of the people here, grew up watching Indiana basketball when The General was in charge.  At that time, it was my expectation, that the Hoosiers would be a top team in the Big 10 year-in, year-out, and would be in the thick of it for regular season titles (btw, I hate that I have to make this distinction) and that they would make the NCAA tournament, almost without question, and make a run, if for no other reason than Knight would out-coach most other coaches on any given day. 

 

When Knight was fired, I knew that IU basketball would never be the same again.  I knew that I had to change my expectations. 

 

As for this season, I believe that it has been a success, as no hoops fan can say that winning the BT regular season title, outright, is not an achievement.  It is annually one of the toughest, if not the toughest, conferences in the country, no matter the schedule.  However, given where I started, I always expect more.  For this season to be truly successful, I think that the Hoosiers must reach the Sweet 16.  I think that is a realistic expectation, especially given the talent that CTC has.  Do I think that this team has the talent to play with anyone in the country...yes; however, give the performance in the BTT (which I have looked to as a barometer of where a team is actually at), anything more than the Sweet 16 is just gravy.  

 

Go Hoosiers!

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Sota Hoosier
It might be asking a lot of us as a 5 five seed to make it to the final four but doesn't that beg the question of why are we a 5 seed in the first place? The teams the last few years haven't shown up late in the season and while this team did rattle of 5 Big Ten wins to close out the regular season, they looked flat and almost disinterested against Michigan in the BTT which led us to a 5 seed and Kentucky looming.

The expectations need to remain the same if we want this program to be keep its already slipping elite status. I don't care if it's Kentucky in the way or any other team for that matter. Simply beating them and getting to the Sweet 16 and losing after that doesn't make it a successful season in my book. It simply is what it is - a sweet 16 team and maintains the ceiling of what has been accomplished two times over the previous 4 years.

Yes, the Big Ten title matters and is an accomplishment in its own. So the regular season was a success. But that portion of the year is over and the "new season" has already started on the wrong note.

Final Four is success to me for IU.
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Beowulf50

We have got to beat UK! We beat UK and I am a very happy fan! We have had a good season and have a good outlook for the future! Please IU be motivated and take care of business! That is the minimum for me but I hope we do more!

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Alford Bailey

The talent is final four capable. That should be the measure. Nothing less!

Yep. If we to be a big dog again Crean must take this talent and get it done in this bracket.

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Beowulf50

I really like that we finished the season strong, unlike previous years. We did not get it done in the B1G tournament but we never do. We have the talent to make a lot of noise and I am hoping that we do! Go IU make this fan base go nuts! I remember when we beat Duke a few years ago in the big dance and I had to run outside and jump up and down screaming like a crazy person! I really want to feel that way again!

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MartintheMopMan
I agree with the sentiment saying I expected an elite right before the bracket but probably a sweet sixteen now if we play UNC close.

I do disagree with everyone saying they want Kentucky to win their first game. I don't. If every game in our region was an upset except ours in the first round I would be thrilled. It's do-or-die time friends. I don't give a fuck who we beat before we hang our banner. I don't care if our road to the final four is Chatty, Stony, FGCU, and Weber. I don't care if it's Austin Pee in the championship game. None of that is as important to me as number 6.
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pappy1865
Successful year? Of course it is. The thing I love about March is that anything can happen.

Good Troy.
Defense.
Yogi.
OG.
Bryant.

Banner 6 isn't that far of a stretch.

Agree with the above. I don't t care who the wins come against or how. Just. Get. The. W.
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