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Analysis: What will it take for IU fans to call this a successful season?


IndyHutch
  • The jury is still out but it's a question that begs to be answered. What does IU have to do in the NCAA Tournament for this to be considered a successful season?

The question is a simple one. The answer, however, is more in the eye of the beholder.

 

In your opinion, what has to happen for the 2015-16 Indiana University basketball season to be remembered as a successful one?

 

As I see it, there are at least three scenarios that exist at the very least.

 

Let’s begin with the worst case scenario: If Indiana followed up its opening round B1G Tournament loss to Michigan with a first round exit at the hands of Chattanooga on Thursday, will it have been enough that IU was the outright Big Ten regular season champion and won the conference by two full games. In your mind, will that 25-8 record have been a successful season?

 

I’ve heard from some people who have told me they think that in and of itself has made this a successful season. Indiana had not won 15 games or more in the Big Ten is more than 20 years. And an outright Big Ten title is a big deal.

 

Myself, however, I cannot imagine thinking of this season in successful terms if it ended with a pair of first round tournament losses. I think with most people it would leave a sour taste in their mouths and just provide ammunition for fans to be upset about the direction of the program. I think we would be hearing a lot of noise from IU fans on Thursday night and Friday afternoon on the talk shows.

 

So let’s move on to scenario No. 2: If Indiana beat Chattanooga on Thursday but then lost to Kentucky on Saturday, would that be enough to make this season be considered a successful one by IU Nation?

 

Think about it. If that happened, as a No. 5 seed you would have won the game you were expected to win and would have lost the one that, at least seed-wise, you probably wouldn’t have been favored in. So you could probably make the case that a 26-8 finish was a successful season. Still, I don’t know if it would be from the standpoint of having your season end at the hands of a rival like Kentucky or what, but my guess is that most people still wouldn’t be satisfied with that result.

 

I think it was different in 2012 when IU lost to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. Kentucky was a 1 seed and had revenge from the Wat Shot on its minds. An IU hadn’t been to the Sweet Sixteen in several years so it was a new accomplishment. Now it would be another exit before you got to the Sweet Sixteen and I think that’s different.

 

Let’s talk about Scenario No. 3: You beat Chattanooga on Thursday and then knock off Kentucky on Saturday to advance to the Sweet Sixteen in Philadelphia. In the Sweet Sixteen you would likely play top-seeded North Carolina. If that was the case and IU lost at that point, would the season have been a success?

 

I know a lot of people are going to say that in order for this season to have been a success that the program needs to get at least one round beyond where it has in recent years. Twice since the 2011-12 season, IU has lost in the Sweet Sixteen so making it to the Elite Eight could be the Mendoza Line for many IU fans. At the same time, if you get to the Sweet Sixteen and knock off Kentucky along the way, I somehow have to think that this year has been a successful one.

 

Now if you get to the Sweet Sixteen and you’re facing a team other than North Carolina, that could change everything, too. But I still think if this team could get to the Sweet Sixteen it would have 27 wins, a Big Ten outright title, and a win over Kentucky along the way. That’s a pretty good year.

 

I’ve also heard people say that nothing short of a Final Four appearance is enough in their minds for this season to be successful. I think that’s asking a lot for a 5 seed especially when you consider what IU’s road could potentially be to get there. You could potentially have to beat Chattanooga, Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier to get there and while that would be an impressive feat, I think that may be asking a lot, too.

 

And then if you got there, there’s a good chance you would meet Michigan State in the national semifinals. But again, we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. Thursday’s matchup with Chattanooga could be one where IU has its hands completely full.

 

One thing in the back of the minds of IU fans this week is not to think too much about IU-Kentucky on Saturday. Remember what happened the last time you did that? You were thinking this time last week about IU-Purdue playing last Saturday and that didn’t end so well.

 

My question for you though is a simple one: As an IU fan, is this season already a success or does IU have to do more? And if it’s the latter, how much does IU have to do for the 2015-16 season to be considered a success?

 

I’m looking forward to your responses.

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Agreed.  And as much as I'd love to see Stony Brook knock off UK, I'd rather see IU be the team to end UK's season.

 

EDIT:  Now that I'm thinking about it, I think when IU is hitting on all cylinders (hitting 3s, D is in order) that they could end UNC's season as well.  This team has a high ceiling but a deep basement.

My gut feeling is this is an all or nothing year. We either make the Final Four or we lose to Chatty by double digits.

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My gut feeling is this is an all or nothing year. We either make the Final Four or we lose to Chatty by double digits.

 

That's the problem.  We should NEVER EVER be worried about getting beat in a first round game!  NEVER!   But $h!t happens and I know it did in the immortal General's latter years and I can honestly say that I'm more than a little worried about the Chatty game.  Under CTC, we are just so consistently inconsistent when it comes to playing in tournaments.  It's maddening, frustrating along with a thousand other synonyms.  This team is definitely Sweet 16 caliber and it can be an Elite 8 and even a Final 4 but it's got to play with its head screwed on straight.  But will it?

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I think you are mixing up THIS year's success or possibly  lack thereof, with keeping or firing Coach Crean. 

I agree with you that any discussion of Crean's job has to look at the totality of his work.  However, that wasn't the discussion.  The last eight years have nothing to do with this team, or this season. 

I have to disagree with you on this one, (and I don't usually don't like to disagree with your posts). The totality of Crean's tenure at IU does have an impact on the expectations one has for an individual year's assessment. As fans, we don't make assessments or alter expectations within a vacuum; everything is considered. That would include past tournament experiences and the total body of work turned in by Crean's teams. This is human nature. As far as I'm concerned, the expectation should be banner #6. Let Purdue fans revel in 20 win seasons and trips to the tournament, replete with early exits; that's what they're legendary for. 

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I have to disagree with you on this one, (and I don't usually don't like to disagree with your posts). The totality of Crean's tenure at IU does have an impact on the expectations one has for an individual year's assessment. As fans, we don't make assessments or alter expectations within a vacuum; everything is considered. That would include past tournament experiences and the total body of work turned in by Crean's teams. This is human nature. As far as I'm concerned, the expectation should be banner #6. Let Purdue fans revel in 20 win seasons and trips to the tournament, replete with early exits; that's what they're legendary for. 

Isn't respectful disagreement one of the things that make these message boards fun?  :) 

I always try and dismiss history from the current year.  A good example was when we got whalloped by Syracuse.  Crean's post season history was not significantly different that year, yet because of that specific team we had heightened expectations of how they would end the year.  That is why we were all up in arms when we looked so bad in that game. 

After the third week of this season, did any of us expect to win the B1G, and even be playing in the NCAA tournament?

The way I interpreted the post I responded to, was that it was more focused on Crean's past than the discussion point raised in the thread.  The past, to me, doesn't have any bearing on whether or not this season is successful. 

I put in red the part we are in complete agreement.  If History were different I would expect beating Kentucky, and I would also expect beating North Carolina. Not so much any more. 

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