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Analysis: IU could lose to Purdue and still be No. 1 seed in B1G Tourney


IndyHutch
  • Indiana controls its own destiny in the Big Ten men's basketball race with four games to go. But it's not just a scenario where Indiana has to win its final four games. Winning three could still get the Hoosiers the top spot in the conference. Here's my take.

So just how important was Penn State’s victory over Iowa on Wednesday night?

 

From an Indiana perspective, it means that Indiana could win three of its final four games and still end up as the No. 1 seed overall in the Big Ten Tournament.

 

In fact, Indiana could even lose to Purdue on Saturday at Assembly Hall and still end up as the No. 1 seed overall in the Big Ten Tournament. I’ll explain that in detail in a moment.

 

But the point is this: Iowa’s road loss to Penn State was huge in the overall landscape of the Big Ten title chase.

 

And the great thing for Indiana Basketball heading into the final four games of the conference season is that IU clearly controls its own destiny. And I think we can all agree on one thing in that regard. You want to be in a position coming down the stretch of the conference race, where you control your own destiny.

 

As we sit here today, Indiana is tied with Iowa atop the Big Ten standings with 11-3 records. Maryland is a half game back, but tied in the loss column at 10-3. The Terrapins face Minnesota Thursday night and will likely join the three-way logjam atop the conference standings.

 

We all know that if Indiana wins its final four conference games the Hoosiers would be the outright Big Ten champions. That’s because they play both Maryland and Iowa, which means those two teams would have at least five losses.

 

So win your last four and you’ll capture IU’s first outright Big Ten title since Cody and Victor took home the crown when they beat Michigan on the final day of the regular season in 2013.

 

But consider this scenario, too. If Indiana wins three of its final four games, it will be the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and be no worse than in a three-way tie for the conference title as long as two of those three wins are against Maryland and Iowa.

 

NOTE: Now in fairness to Wisconsin, I need to include that if the Badgers somehow won their final six games of the Big Ten season they be in a first place tie as well. The problem there is that Wisconsin still plays at Michigan State (tonight), at Iowa and at Purdue. It also plays Michigan at home. So while there's a mathematical chance, it's a longshot at best.

 

Indiana closes with home games against Purdue (Saturday) and Maryland (the final Sunday of the Big Ten season). In between are road games at Illinois and Iowa.

 

But if IU wins three games and two of those victories are over Maryland and Iowa, then IU would finish 14-4 in the Big Ten. The best Maryland or Iowa could finish in that scenario would also be 14-4.

 

And Indiana would have the tiebreaker based on the fact it swept the other two teams in the tie. IU would have a 3-0 record against those two teams and thus, would be the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney.

 

Now, I’m not saying it’s OK to lose to Purdue on Saturday because we all know how important that game is to both schools far beyond just the game on the floor. It’s important to fans, alumni, former players, everybody involved in the rivalry.

 

But I am saying that if that were to occur it wouldn’t mean that much as long as IU was able to win its other three games. I’m also not suggesting that beating Maryland, Iowa and Illinois is going to be any easy task. Far from it.

 

What I am saying though is that the scenario exists for Indiana to control its own destiny as long as it finds a way to get at least three wins in the final four games and beat both Iowa and Maryland.

 

Now all the Hoosiers have to do it go out and do it. Easier said than done.

 

NOTE: Just wanted to remind anyone in South Carolina or Florida that I’m beginning a six event in six days alumni chapter tour on Thursday Feb. 18 in Hilton Head. I’ll be at Hilton Head Thursday and then will be at five other locations in South Florida over the next five days.

 

Here is the complete schedule:

 

Thursday, Feb. 18 – Hilton Head Chapter at Callahan’s. Meet at 5:30 p.m. and the program goes from 6-7:30 p.m. Callahan’s is on New Orleans Road.

 

Friday, Feb. 19 – South Florida Chapter at Bru’s Room Sports Bar, Boynton Beach, Fla. Program runs from 6:30-9:30 p.m. and will be an IU Basketball Trivia Night. Dinner is also part of the program.

 

Saturday, Feb. 20 – Orlando Chapter at Wide World of Beer in Orlando. IU Basketball Trivia Night beginning at 7:15 p.m. followed by a Game Watch for IU-Purdue at 8:30 p.m.

 

Sunday, Feb. 21 – Southwest Florida IUAA Chapter in Naples, Fla. Keynote speaker at Brunch Series event, 12-2 p.m at Olde Cypress Country Club. As of Wednesday, they have RSVP’s from nearly 100 IU alumni.

 

Monday, Feb. 22 – Clearwater, Fla. Having an informal meeting at the Brown Boxer bar at north beach from 7-9 p.m.

 

Tuesday, Feb. 23 – Florida Suncoast Chapter. Celebrate Indiana Day with Florida Suncoast IUAA at Laurel Oaks Country Club in Sarasota. Program is expected to begin around 6:30 p.m.

 

If you’re around any of those places and you want to stop by, please do.

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Didn't know where to put this.... What's the best place to sell Big Ten Tournament tickets to sessions I won't be attending?


Me!!! Lol but seriously StubHub most likely.

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Didn't know where to put this.... What's the best place to sell Big Ten Tournament tickets to sessions I won't be attending?

 

PM me once the bracket is laid out I might be interested

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